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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Washer streamer straight into leicester!!!!saw this coming after the ecm and ukmo this evening!!!

    Thames streamer looks like it's also well and truly up and running. 

    Edited by NewEra21
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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Low between Greenland and Iceland has completely disappeared this run.. was that not going to be the trigger low.

    image.thumb.png.82098cd7b0c23f1988fa1a1237245a9a.png

    If the low over Svelbard drops South, we'll get the motherboard!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The gfs and it's brother look to hit the UK dead on,what after?

    gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.bafbd93f977aee807c1eec6052dd12f7.pnggfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.92a28b6ac0270b1c159aebd7f9c66880.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Paul said:

    I decided to the winter tyres fitted to the car early next week, if the 18z is to be believed, it was a good call!

    Oh you’ve jinxed it now!

    Get a grip . . . 😂😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Incoming... all helped by that shortwave that had been there previously between Iceland and Greenland not showing this time.

    image.thumb.png.8fbcd8f839fa280ca4e800ac2cb3c89d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Thames streamer also looks like it's also well and truly up and running. 

    Not much accumulating though😄

    image.thumb.png.d88530dda1b956cedb2143078c4a294c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, Paul said:

    I decided to the winter tyres fitted to the car early next week, if the 18z is to be believed, it was a good call!

    Is that a ramp Paul☺️

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

    Not much accumulating though😄

    image.thumb.png.d88530dda1b956cedb2143078c4a294c.png

    Yes.. but this time yesterday it was all rain.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

    Yes.. but this time yesterday it was all rain.. 

    True.. It'll be nice to see it falling at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    Not much accumulating though😄

    image.thumb.png.d88530dda1b956cedb2143078c4a294c.png

    Models always seem to underplay and struggle with convective snowfall and streamers tbf.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    51 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Not really mate it's all the wrong colours 😅

    Half way through a party but couldn't resist... Lovely UKMO and plenty to be excited about.. And just thought I would share these from Matt H on twitter... Its nearly 12 folks... Don't get going back on those New Year Resolutions... 😂

    UW120-21.gif

    UW144-21.gif

    Eql8T-wW8AAWg9y.jpeg

    Eql8T-3XAAA5OSN.jpeg

    Eql8T-1XUAEPz_7.jpeg

    Eql8T-4WMAA9W99.jpeg

    Thery're the same model.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The low is filling/disrupting on the Parra at 192,should be a good run from there.

    gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.bdedc5ed8fff91471769b110db8f454d.png

    the gfs is also good at 186.

    gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.138d81d5f0c76220c63d1cd96a0ca636.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

    Models always seem to underplay and struggle with convective snowfall and streamers tbf.

    Not all models, but that sort of stuff is definitely best left to the shorter range hi-res models. 🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    Just now, NewEra21 said:

    Models always seem to underplay and struggle with convective snowfall and streamers tbf.

    Do they?

    We might get temporary cover on higher ground anyway👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The low is filling/disrupting on the Parra at 192,should be a good run from there.

    gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.bdedc5ed8fff91471769b110db8f454d.png

    the gfs is also good at 186.

    gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.138d81d5f0c76220c63d1cd96a0ca636.png

     

    As long as that Atlantic HP stands firm and acts as a block between the upstream LP and our LP, everything is good.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    As long as that Atlantic HP stands firm and acts as a block between the upstream LP and our LP, everything is good.

    My concern(on this run)is the med,there is some warm uppers down there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Good Evening.  Next week early on looks great for snow streaming across from the North Sea for Southern Britain. All I can say is this will be a Winter to remember! PS Happy New Year...!

    h850t850eu-13.png

    ecmt850.120-4.png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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