Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[blizzard81 6,560]

The ecm mean from this morning does show the trough over the UK. So tonight's op is close to this solution. Much closer than this morning's op which had the favourable diving type of trough down to our south. 

[PolarWarsaw 2,157]

Despite a poor run in the mid term this evening, people should be feeling more positive about next week itself - a move in the right direction there this evening. 

I mentioned last night that I'd have taken some half decent odds on next week being the 'spell' of the winter and instead of worrying about what might happen at 10 day, let's have a look at things coming together for Day 5 and 6. 

IF things fall our way it could potentially be quite a snowy week with surprises in there. 

These long, drawn out SSW building block 'jam tomorrow' style episodes rarely work out for the UK it's exactly why I'm not a fan of always having to wait for things, they inevitably fall apart and after a build up this long, it will feel like a VERY large kick in the teeth if this January isn't memorable (well, for not being the biggest disappointment in weather forum history). Although, it would be a good learning curve for future reference. Not even the best setup brings snow to the UK. Nobody is here for Cold, Frosty of foggy days or spells - it's snow, or nothing contrary to how many others want to word it in a less blunt way.

Focus on next week would be my message...might surprise a few and it could quite easily turn out to be the best week of the winter.

Edited December 31, 2020 by PolarWarsaw

[sheikhy 4,593]

I bet my bottom dollar that the ecm is wrong after 192 hours!!it wont pan out like that!!!model of the day today goes to ukmo👊!!!2 things to look out for on 18z is continuation of the upgrade on the easterly and the greenland high between 144 and 216 hours with trough dropping south cleanly!!!!

[Matt H 5,011]

Just wanted to wish everyone on here a Happy New Year when the time comes later. We’re in a great position with the model runs at the moment in terms of potentially developing a memorable cold spell so let’s hope that the models continue to show promise as we enter the new year.

Here’s hoping that 2021 is a much better year than 2020 for everyone, it can’t be any worse hopefully.😁

Edited December 31, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Allseasons-si 25,038]

5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Always worth remembering when looking at the models especially with an ssw in the offing. 

0-96 =. Probable 

96-144 Possible 

144 -240. Imaginable 

240 + laughable.

Saves a lot of unnecessary anguish.

 

 

 

 

 

That is a realistic summary there BB and it should be pinned to the notice board👍

[Anthony Burden 938]

ECM will not remain the same after 168 hrs but this Icelandic low that shown if it

comes to fruition needs to be to the east of the UK on its journey south.

All very speculative at that range ,lots happening but cold/very cold is the theme.

[bluearmy 44,591]

That ecm op was close to the largest cluster from the morning suite days 8/10 .......

Much better for Dp’s in the easterly flow until the proper precip arrives from the east ......and again afterwards 

Edited December 31, 2020 by bluearmy

[Scott Ingham 5,448]

48 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's reasonable as -7.5 gives an inland adibatic 0m temp of 1.3C/DP 0.8C in this set up which is safely enough. Different on the coast sharper positive surface thermal gradient, -8 a safe zone to mix this out for most.

-8.4 gives everywhere snow regardless of surface parameters. -9 gives an adiabatic temp of -0.6C & powder snow.

Adiabatic temp = temp in showers when solar heating layer is removed

The man on this board in this scenario.

Top post yet again

Big respect from me mate

[PolarWarsaw 2,157]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That ecm op was close to the largest cluster from the morning suite days 8/10 .......

Much better for Dp’s in the easterly flow until the proper precip arrives from the east ......and again afterwards 

Hmmmm. 

First time in a few weeks I'd say where things may actually be starting to really turn against us in the mid-term. 

A rogue OP Run, sure - but backed up by the EPS and looking through comparing to the GFS - there's actually worse runs than this appearing.

Let's hope we can work on next week's DP's - colder and for longer, it may save the disappointment a little bit. 

[Eskimo 5,795]

What are the reasons for people to suggest that anything less cold, or possibly milder showing in outer reaches would be incorrect? Quite a few of the models drop the trough somewhere near the UK around day 8, and there's nothing to suggest it wouldn't end up unfavourable for cold and snowy conditions thereafter. 

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Eskimo

[bobbydog 14,514]

Ok... point to note... these are '2020' charts we're looking at. At midnight, we're hoping for a happier new year... 😉🥂

[stewfox 4,370]

52 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh expecting a better ecm late on tomorrow morning!!main thing is the easterly has upgraded!!!

Cant see a better ECM coming till next year 🙂

 

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by stewfox

[Battleground Snow 5,898]

ECM mean at 216

More drop the low ?

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[BARRY 725]

Just now, bobbydog said:

Ok... point to note... these are '2020' charts we're looking at. At midnight, we're hoping for a happier new year... 😉🥂

lets hope they go up another tier lol

[sheikhy 4,593]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

ECM mean at 192

More drop the low ?

 

Waayyyy better than the op mate!!!!thought so!!!!go do one ecm op😈

[bluearmy 44,591]

5 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Hmmmm. 

First time in a few weeks I'd say where things may actually be starting to really turn against us in the mid-term. 

A rogue OP Run, sure - but backed up by the EPS and looking through comparing to the GFS - there's actually worse runs than this appearing.

Let's hope we can work on next week's DP's - colder and for longer, it may save the disappointment a little bit. 

Was only about 30%

others 20%, 18% twice and 14%

30% isn’t big enough to be a massive concern. The fact the op has jumped to that cluster is more of a worry but with the output still likely to be a bit volatile ahead of the onset of the reversal at the top of strat, no knee jerks yet ....

 

[Radiating Dendrite 3,704]

26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I bet my bottom dollar that the ecm is wrong after 192 hours!!it wont pan out like that!!!model of the day today goes to ukmo👊!!!2 things to look out for on 18z is continuation of the upgrade on the easterly and the greenland high between 144 and 216 hours with trough dropping south cleanly!!!!

It won't pan out like that because no model has ever been correct at 192.

Serious question.... why the !!!?

Edited December 31, 2020 by Radiating Dendrite

[Djdazzle 5,514]

3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Hmmmm. 

First time in a few weeks I'd say where things may actually be starting to really turn against us in the mid-term. 

A rogue OP Run, sure - but backed up by the EPS and looking through comparing to the GFS - there's actually worse runs than this appearing.

Let's hope we can work on next week's DP's - colder and for longer, it may save the disappointment a little bit. 

But some think it’s odds on for a very cold January. I think some folk need to remember that even with amazing synoptics and background signals, we could still end up with an average month. I hope not, but as I said yesterday, we are nowhere near seeing anything special in the reliable time frame.

However, I consoled myself earlier by watching Gavin P’s video about the 1947 spell, which almost appeared from nowhere!

[chris55 6,388]

The entire broad-scale pattern is against Climatology. In this scenario we have to take the traditional longer term ensemble forecasting with some measure of caution, over and above the normal regime you would expect. 
 

That’s not to say it’s not correct. Just that the current pattern is so far from the norm anything beyond day 5, Op or Ensemble should be treated with an open mind, cold or mild. 

[georgiedre 272]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM mean at 216

More drop the low ?

 

As long as the low follows the path into central Europe this hopefully brings absolutely freezing cold for us... here's to hoping 

[bluearmy 44,591]

 

expect a decent size cluster to be further south .....

[Allseasons-si 25,038]

The ECM day ten mean,...it doesn't drop the trough south enough.

lets hope it improves in the morning.

[ICE COLD 11,578]

Cant turn ya nose up at this . From T0 to T240 ECM mean . A million times better than what we’ve had for quite a few years 🥶

[Scott Ingham 5,448]

All models will be volatile. 

Any chance of coming on here and not seeing bi polar reactions to every model run.

The ECM is a "Possible" scenario of about 30% of a bunch of ensembles that are throwing out a bunch of outcomes.

Believe me there is a hell of a lot going off in the atmosphere. To call a forecast out beyond 120hours is rediculous.

By all means give commentary on what the run shows but do so with a caveat that it has a 30% chance of happening.

Relax!

Anyone with a level head would be happy to be in todays starting conditions in January 🤣😂

[Scott Ingham 5,448]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

The entire broad-scale pattern is against Climatology. In this scenario we have to take the traditional longer term ensemble forecasting with some measure of caution, over and above the normal regime you would expect. 
 

That’s not to say it’s not correct. Just that the current pattern is so far from the norm anything beyond day 5, Op or Ensemble should be treated with an open mind, cold or mild. 

Spot on. Good post