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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    The ecm mean from this morning does show the trough over the UK. So tonight's op is close to this solution. Much closer than this morning's op which had the favourable diving type of trough down to our south. 

    EDM1-240.gif

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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    Despite a poor run in the mid term this evening, people should be feeling more positive about next week itself - a move in the right direction there this evening. 

    I mentioned last night that I'd have taken some half decent odds on next week being the 'spell' of the winter and instead of worrying about what might happen at 10 day, let's have a look at things coming together for Day 5 and 6. 

    IF things fall our way it could potentially be quite a snowy week with surprises in there. 

    These long, drawn out SSW building block 'jam tomorrow' style episodes rarely work out for the UK it's exactly why I'm not a fan of always having to wait for things, they inevitably fall apart and after a build up this long, it will feel like a VERY large kick in the teeth if this January isn't memorable (well, for not being the biggest disappointment in weather forum history). Although, it would be a good learning curve for future reference. Not even the best setup brings snow to the UK. Nobody is here for Cold, Frosty of foggy days or spells - it's snow, or nothing contrary to how many others want to word it in a less blunt way.

    Focus on next week would be my message...might surprise a few and it could quite easily turn out to be the best week of the winter.

    Edited by PolarWarsaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    I bet my bottom dollar that the ecm is wrong after 192 hours!!it wont pan out like that!!!model of the day today goes to ukmo👊!!!2 things to look out for on 18z is continuation of the upgrade on the easterly and the greenland high between 144 and 216 hours with trough dropping south cleanly!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Always worth remembering when looking at the models especially with an ssw in the offing. 

    0-96 =. Probable 

    96-144 Possible 

    144 -240. Imaginable 

    240 + laughable.

    Saves a lot of unnecessary anguish.

     

     

     

     

     

    That is a realistic summary there BB and it should be pinned to the notice board👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    ECM will not remain the same after 168 hrs but this Icelandic low that shown if it

    comes to fruition needs to be to the east of the UK on its journey south.

    All very speculative at that range ,lots happening but cold/very cold is the theme.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    That ecm op was close to the largest cluster from the morning suite days 8/10 .......

    Much better for Dp’s in the easterly flow until the proper precip arrives from the east ......and again afterwards 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    48 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    It's reasonable as -7.5 gives an inland adibatic 0m temp of 1.3C/DP 0.8C in this set up which is safely enough. Different on the coast sharper positive surface thermal gradient, -8 a safe zone to mix this out for most.

    -8.4 gives everywhere snow regardless of surface parameters. -9 gives an adiabatic temp of -0.6C & powder snow.

    Adiabatic temp = temp in showers when solar heating layer is removed

    The man on this board in this scenario.

    Top post yet again

    Big respect from me mate

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    That ecm op was close to the largest cluster from the morning suite days 8/10 .......

    Much better for Dp’s in the easterly flow until the proper precip arrives from the east ......and again afterwards 

    Hmmmm. 

    First time in a few weeks I'd say where things may actually be starting to really turn against us in the mid-term. 

    A rogue OP Run, sure - but backed up by the EPS and looking through comparing to the GFS - there's actually worse runs than this appearing.

    Let's hope we can work on next week's DP's - colder and for longer, it may save the disappointment a little bit. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    What are the reasons for people to suggest that anything less cold, or possibly milder showing in outer reaches would be incorrect? Quite a few of the models drop the trough somewhere near the UK around day 8, and there's nothing to suggest it wouldn't end up unfavourable for cold and snowy conditions thereafter. 

     

    Edited by Eskimo
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    Ok... point to note... these are '2020' charts we're looking at. At midnight, we're hoping for a happier new year... 😉🥂

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    52 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Yeh expecting a better ecm late on tomorrow morning!!main thing is the easterly has upgraded!!!

    Cant see a better ECM coming till next year 🙂

     

     

    Edited by stewfox
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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    Just now, bobbydog said:

    Ok... point to note... these are '2020' charts we're looking at. At midnight, we're hoping for a happier new year... 😉🥂

    lets hope they go up another tier lol

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Hmmmm. 

    First time in a few weeks I'd say where things may actually be starting to really turn against us in the mid-term. 

    A rogue OP Run, sure - but backed up by the EPS and looking through comparing to the GFS - there's actually worse runs than this appearing.

    Let's hope we can work on next week's DP's - colder and for longer, it may save the disappointment a little bit. 

    Was only about 30%

    others 20%, 18% twice and 14%

    30% isn’t big enough to be a massive concern. The fact the op has jumped to that cluster is more of a worry but with the output still likely to be a bit volatile ahead of the onset of the reversal at the top of strat, no knee jerks yet ....

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    I bet my bottom dollar that the ecm is wrong after 192 hours!!it wont pan out like that!!!model of the day today goes to ukmo👊!!!2 things to look out for on 18z is continuation of the upgrade on the easterly and the greenland high between 144 and 216 hours with trough dropping south cleanly!!!!

    It won't pan out like that because no model has ever been correct at 192.

    Serious question.... why the !!!?

    Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Hmmmm. 

    First time in a few weeks I'd say where things may actually be starting to really turn against us in the mid-term. 

    A rogue OP Run, sure - but backed up by the EPS and looking through comparing to the GFS - there's actually worse runs than this appearing.

    Let's hope we can work on next week's DP's - colder and for longer, it may save the disappointment a little bit. 

    But some think it’s odds on for a very cold January. I think some folk need to remember that even with amazing synoptics and background signals, we could still end up with an average month. I hope not, but as I said yesterday, we are nowhere near seeing anything special in the reliable time frame.

    However, I consoled myself earlier by watching Gavin P’s video about the 1947 spell, which almost appeared from nowhere!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    The entire broad-scale pattern is against Climatology. In this scenario we have to take the traditional longer term ensemble forecasting with some measure of caution, over and above the normal regime you would expect. 
     

    That’s not to say it’s not correct. Just that the current pattern is so far from the norm anything beyond day 5, Op or Ensemble should be treated with an open mind, cold or mild. 

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    ECM mean at 216

    More drop the low ?

     

    EDH1-216.gif

    EDH0-216.gif

    As long as the low follows the path into central Europe this hopefully brings absolutely freezing cold for us... here's to hoping 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The ECM day ten mean,...it doesn't drop the trough south enough.

    EDH1-240.thumb.gif.dbf6973264a8554aa2c92423eb188dff.gif

    lets hope it improves in the morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Cant turn ya nose up at this . From T0 to T240 ECM mean . A million times better than what we’ve had for quite a few years 🥶

    24884414-DF83-42CE-A425-98F6AB8B6503.png

    08C8A709-9DAA-4910-B0E7-F435DEC8A3D0.png

    3B6548FA-2492-4E55-A675-96F69FF5C031.png

    7833AB7C-1DFE-4D5A-9F02-0728B5A53341.png

    8EE89876-7D9E-4605-ABAC-38D585ED0D30.png

    73047A5A-59AB-49F8-83BF-FE29BDB0124C.png

    E58A94BA-1CF9-4079-8AA9-C8DE58F0BD3C.png

    08D1757E-7E64-4D2D-95A7-F48EDEC2703D.png

    D372F12B-2018-4326-9878-12C65CFA6FBD.png

    90A55A68-2CC3-49E6-8013-DB45AFC177D5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    The entire broad-scale pattern is against Climatology. In this scenario we have to take the traditional longer term ensemble forecasting with some measure of caution, over and above the normal regime you would expect. 
     

    That’s not to say it’s not correct. Just that the current pattern is so far from the norm anything beyond day 5, Op or Ensemble should be treated with an open mind, cold or mild. 

    Spot on. Good post

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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