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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    This mornings ECM run had a much better evolution. Here the shortwave deepens into a bowling ball low .  This is always the problem with deep cold hitting the warmer Atlantic .

    Luckily we have time for changes and it only starts going pear shaped at day 8.

    The problem is day 7. Note the double vortex just off the east coast of GL. We only want one, the southern one...that's the one we need to drop down. Flimsy extensions like this just disrupt the whole play...

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2020123112/ECM1-168.GIF?31-0

     

     

     

     

     

    Edited by The Eagle
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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    As soon as it’s cold enough on Tuesday...it’s dry 🤣

    BA6B1239-2011-4D61-B6D4-A91759CA18D7.jpeg

    surely not, those charts must underestimate convective showers, all models do

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Just looking at the d10 gefs and we can see that post-d7 there are multiple options and some are not that good:

    gens_panel_tgt7.png London>graphe3_10000_308.6377716064453_146.43630981445312___.thumb.png.fd09d30ce4a1a1e2da279b75a16b6f74.png

    No doubt it will change a few times before we get some unity, but this is def a crux point in the timeline. We know that if we can get a clean trough drop over the UK then the 5-7 days in a holding pattern as the NH profile changes could be cold (as per 12z gfs), but we saw with the gfs 6z that poor phasing and we can get a less cold solution; the London ens^^^ highlight this? Lots of finger crossing needed!

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Lol!

     

    We would have killed for that 240hrs ECM chart last winter,cut off LP over the Eastern states,pressure rise over Greenland and the PV kicked to the other side of the hemisphere!

     

    ECH1-240.thumb.png.22c226f04eb9f41468f50b9d24e99028.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    So ECM as I tried to explain earlier replicates a classic worse case scenario for a WNAO

    lets scrap that!

    6815B35D-DD6D-4CB5-A846-1C32FA12BC3F.thumb.jpeg.060cc97c3ac3f375ce630777b26bedd4.jpeg

    Thing is Steve I'm not sure its quite the worst case either, there are some runs that believe it or not are worse on the 12z GFS.

    P14 springs to mind for example as the same pattern but a worse outcome!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    The problem is day 7. Note the double vortex just off the east coast of GL. We only want one, the southern one...that's the one we need to drop down. Flimsy extensions like this just disrupt the whole play...

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2020123112/ECM1-168.GIF?31-0

     

     

     

    It’s still redeemable even with the day 7 chart if the block is further north into Greenland but by day 8 the writing is on the wall .

    We still have time for changes so I’m not going to get in the emergency staff yet for the NW helpline ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    Just now, Cloud 10 said:

    Lol!

     

    We would have killed for that 240hrs ECM chart last winter,cut off LP over the Eastern states,pressure rise over Greenland and the PV kicked to the other side of the hemisphere!

     

    ECH1-240.thumb.png.22c226f04eb9f41468f50b9d24e99028.png

    Yes, it has potential ...at day 10 🤣 I’ve heard that before somewhere 🤔 purely from a snow perspective it’s a pants run. Much prefer 00z ECM. See below 00z vs 12z snow depth..

    C6A3D073-79E4-4F61-93F8-C2012E39A0EC.jpeg

    DA0D3559-0FCA-43C6-9025-ABAB4CE949E4.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    If the ECM evolution plays out, I think it'll be one of the most drawn out let downs of the NW era. A true kick in the goolies.

    I can't even see a a quick route back to cold from D10, it would waste a few days of peak winter shuffling that pattern into something more conducive. Such fine margins on this and I wish that op run hadn't just happened.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Latest CFS at 240 was similar to the ECM 12z...LP close to the UK, knew it wouldn't follow the 0z. It will be interesting to see where this op run sits in the ensembles.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    As soon as it’s cold enough on Tuesday...it’s dry 🤣

    BA6B1239-2011-4D61-B6D4-A91759CA18D7.jpeg

    If you look closely there's a nice little hint of pink over NW Kent😉 would be the most snow I've seen all winter if that came off hey Mr Murr

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall

    Let's start off with the positives is that for the most part short term wise is that the ECM is quite similar to the UKMO for quite some time though it decided to play ten pin bowling shortly but having a rolling ball strike the UK

    Though the big takeway is that the GFS too is in agreement though they are some differences but the general pattern is the same 

    I suppose the increased uncertainty is not only because of the NH Pattern but also because of the SSW 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Yes, it has potential ...at day 10 🤣 I’ve heard that before somewhere 🤔 purely from a snow perspective it’s a pants run. Much prefer 00z ECM. See below 00z vs 12z snow depth..

    C6A3D073-79E4-4F61-93F8-C2012E39A0EC.jpeg

    DA0D3559-0FCA-43C6-9025-ABAB4CE949E4.jpeg

    That reminds me, Tesco has Potential Shovels going cheap just now!:santa-emoji:

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    Let's start off with the positives is that for the most part short term wise is that the ECM is quite similar to the UKMO for quite some time though it decided to play ten pin bowling shortly but having a rolling ball strike the UK

    Though the big takeway is that the GFS too is in agreement though they are some differences but the general pattern is the same 

    I suppose the increased uncertainty is not only because of the NH Pattern but also because of the SSW 

    Oh you can sure see the reversal of the trop pattern on that ECM run. Just a shame it happens 1000 miles N of our latitude 😛

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    It’s still redeemable even with the day 7 chart if the block is further north into Greenland but by day 8 the writing is on the wall .

    We still have time for changes so I’m not going to get in the emergency staff yet for the NW helpline ! 

    On the contrary it's a fanastic run for the simple fact it isn't far away at all. It's also on it's own with that one aspect. Wouldn't be surprised if it's a synoptic outlier there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    The ecm op is alreet 😊. We just don't want to see any more negative adjustments in future runs. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    ECM seems just as poor in fl as gfs a ,not worth taking any notice of it,always changes every 12 hours,never see any consistency from it.

    At least it looks colder upto the 144 hours,might as well stop its latter output ,why cant gfs ecm stop at 144 hours ,useless after that timeframe anyway whatever they show.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    Just now, SLEETY said:

    ECM seems just as poor in fl as gfs a ,not worth taking any notice of it,always changes every 12 hours,never see any consistency from it.

    At least it looks colder upto the 144 hours,might as well stop its latter output ,why cant gfs ecm stop at 144 hours ,useless after that timeframe anyway whatever they show.

    You have a great point there. Its hard not to look beyond the 144hr mark. Much better for our nerves though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    It’s a better run up to 120. Anything beyond that is fantasy at the moment. Almost every run has different evolutions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Yes models slightly favouring W based -NAO and breakdown with milder air from W/SW from around the 9th but as Nick writes above certainly not a time for raising the white flag as we could easily see blocking reorganise and stay cold  with winds coming from the N to E quadrant.

    We have firmed up on the pattern before then though, staying on the cold side and mainly dry for most of England with the chance of rain/sleet/snow pushing in from S/SE around the 6th.

    Everything from there depends on how the troughs to our N and S phase which gives a lot of potential outcomes and we likely won't know the details for a few days though whether a breakdown or renewed blocking occurs should become clearer in the next couple of days.

    Until then it is just case of strapping in for the roller coaster of operational output but watching the ensembles if we want a les bumpy ride and more informed idea of what is beyond the next twist and turn.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
    10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Yes, it has potential ...at day 10 🤣 I’ve heard that before somewhere 🤔 purely from a snow perspective it’s a pants run. Much prefer 00z ECM. See below 00z vs 12z snow depth..

    C6A3D073-79E4-4F61-93F8-C2012E39A0EC.jpeg

    DA0D3559-0FCA-43C6-9025-ABAB4CE949E4.jpeg

    These snow depth charts really are just a massive waste of time though In reality!

    These charts on Monday gave me 15 cms over the past 24hrs, the reality is i haven’t seen a snowflake all week 🤷🏻‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Hastings (Eastern Latvia now perhaps until Easter)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Hastings (Eastern Latvia now perhaps until Easter)
    49 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    I think I've found why we're having so much trouble getting snow modelled on an easterly - check out the SST anomalies over the Baltics - 3 or 4C above normal, and no ice cover. 

    WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV

    The Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is part of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). NESDIS is part of the National Oceanic and...

    Trace most of the windflows for next week and they come straight over not only the North Sea but the Baltics also. 

    ARPEGE gives snow throughout Germany/Poland early next week except on north coasts, so no probs with dew points if winds come from there.

    Study ensembles with less Baltic influence and I bet they'll have better dew points.

    I'm still in Eastern Latvia until Sunday, had snow cover since 23rd, cross country skiing 4 times, melted a bit then froze over a bit, topped up, snizzle and drizzle, froze over, still soft and snowy underneath, can still ski in parts, more snow due tomorrow evening until Sat afternoon, potentially 12 hours of snow, plus it snowed with little on the radar yet GEM still showed light snow.

    As mentioned before, GEM has been spot on 3 or 4 days out with precip type here, even on 19th it showed snow for Christmas.

    GFS showing marginal snow/rain even tomorrow here. But it would be good to come back to the UK and have a period of snow watching, albeit right on the seafront in East Sussex where I think once in 5 years there have i only seen a dusting.

     

    20201229_131526.jpg

    20201226_160349.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level

    Best to wait for the ensembles before making downbeat calls on the Op. Especially after +144h

    Operational runs have a greater resolution, which means they pick up more detail than the ensemble members. Sometimes those details are the important details that change the game, sometimes the Op picks up minor details and make a needless big deal about them.

    The difference between Op (high res) and control (low res) will show if details matter in this run (they probably will in these chaotic circumstances).

    Edited by Cold Winter Night
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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