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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    The shortwave moving sw from Greenland is a problem. You don’t want that phasing with the shortwave in the mid Atlantic .

     

    Great minds Nick, need better seperation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    On 29/12/2020 at 23:01, That ECM said:

    Completely agree. 12z NYE will be when we know I think. May as well watch those outputs as there is little else to do.😩😩

    Just put my shoulder blade out slapping myself on the back🤣🤣 They aren’t yet but getting there. Anyway Happy New Year to you all.😄😄😄 🍺🍺🍺 Keep the upgrades coming. And those worried about the extended from the meto. Apparently he didn’t know what to say and was due home 30 minutes previous.😄😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, keithlucky said:

    Next week  St Petersburg  temperatures-5 -6 -7c max so the baltic sea won't be unfrozen for long.

    My own St Petersburg 'Excitement Threshold' is nearer to -14C (7F?) -- but that's because I'm an oldy... I do wish the models would stop their current 'toing-and-froing'... It's doin' me 'ed in!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

    T+216 well outside the reliable - not much point stressing  🙂

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The shortwave moving sw from Greenland is a problem. You don’t want that phasing with the shortwave in the mid Atlantic .

     

    absolutely spot on nick unfortunately they did combine with each other we are left with a less cold northwesterly

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    This mornings ECM run had a much better evolution. Here the shortwave deepens into a bowling ball low .  This is always the problem with deep cold hitting the warmer Atlantic .

    Luckily we have time for changes and it only starts going pear shaped at day 8.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    ECM 192>216 looks like a very strange evolution, why does it blow the LP up so much old school GFS low res style?

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The jma is cleaner....

    JN192-21.thumb.gif.43d80f742a4320633600942f441cc8e9.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Daniel* said:

    ECM had to sour things bowling ball dropping in...

    71E3497A-3067-4A4C-B05A-B14B4654473C.thumb.png.2f4f68b24dcd24a28aa028f4f6973de1.png

     

    It's playing catch up, I'm fairly certain the gfs or para have shown something similar within the last 48 hours, seems very familiar or I've had too many quality street... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    The evolution looks strange from 168 to 192, what prevents the low from dropping. It almost appears to move north again?

    The one big issue with the PV being as fragmented as it is is that we always run the risk of having stray bowling ball lobes of PV end up in a poor location. The 12z ECM is almost at that position with a couple of very weak fragments sitting is just about the worst possible location.

    We may just about get away with it on this 12z ECM, as the LP does at least drift SE somewhat which means we have a lesser risk of eveything just folding on us rapidly from 216hrs.

    But its a risk ,make no mistake about it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Not the best at 192 hours!!at least upgraded earlier!!west based nao incoming on ecm maybe!

     

    Calm down buddy snow fest dropping in. 

     

    image.thumb.png.d160969f14578883bf9c4480c458aaec.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    This mornings ECM run had a much better evolution. Here the shortwave deepens into a bowling ball low .  This is always the problem with deep cold hitting the warmer Atlantic .

    Luckily we have time for changes and it only starts going pear shaped at day 8.

    It's actually D6 Nick...that low is dropping further E than the GFS- We want the heights in the Atlantic to be backed further W as they hold that ESB LP further W too and allow more heights to gain sufficient latitude across W Greenland

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    12z ECM shows at 240hrs what would have happened on the 00z runs had the trigger low not gotten as far SE as it did. Its a fine line between a cold snowy set-up, and what the 12z ECM shows which is something that may stillbe good for the north, but less so further south,

    Also, its not without support from the GFS ensembles either...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    It's actually quite a dicey chart- need more heights pushing up past the W of Greenland, otherwise the troughing will merge with the low coming off the ESB and heights will rise to our SW with the jet riding over the top.

    Especially for your left goolie, I'd imagine!✂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    As soon as it’s cold enough on Tuesday...it’s dry 🤣

    BA6B1239-2011-4D61-B6D4-A91759CA18D7.jpeg

    Said this earlier to bluearmy!!very hard to get both cold and snow for some reason!!milder air more moisture colder air less moisture!!high further south means colder but less precipitation!!high further north more precipitation but milder air with it!!lose lose situation mate!

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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