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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

Battleground Snow
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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Bit of boomage there

-8c isotherm moved through & snow showers packing in from the NE...

9066FDF1-81FB-450D-A94E-45C93121B075.thumb.png.50198e5fb963e97194434999aff2a875.png

Boomage - you are holding back on the detonation?  Rightly so IMHO.  It will be a day or two, I think....before we can call a BOOM winter chart, but it is coming. 

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very good gfs!!!!!same as 12z so far at 120 hours!!no move to ecm!!

Yep. out to 150 and we are drawing our air from a slightly colder source. Looking at -6 to -8c @ 850. Just a couple of degrees better but it will make a big difference. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Some small minus 10 pools popping up now too, shows how cold can develop in situ in these set ups

 

Screenshot_20201229-221201.png

there you are people - i never doubted it for a single moment - told you the uppers would be ok.

 

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Popular Post
Posted

What a beauty, please just for once in your life be right.

AE0FA600-465B-4216-8459-819ED43F4932.thumb.png.b4bf7bd94b2a619517105bd1c769c8e3.pngC0374C38-D2FD-429E-8368-309AD767D74C.thumb.png.3b4a4096f864cc0552776d40ef5715f8.pngA5042E26-5A92-485D-83DF-BCE7F7EF963A.thumb.gif.c1a881337e880ab228bad03d0e30716a.gif

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
Just now, Jason M said:

Yep. out to 150 and we are drawing our air from a slightly colder source. Looking at -6 to -8c @ 850. Just a couple of degrees better but it will make a big difference. 

Well then ecm might be on the wrong path!!!if it looks like the gfs or ukmo on the 00z i will be jumping out my seat

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steveinsussex Seasoned

steveinsussex

Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets see how the SE wiggles out of this one...

18z Harmonie keeps the faith

E9548777-3338-4EAB-BB28-574508EDD470.thumb.png.dda4d41493400873813387453a5810b6.png

Not exactly much to it though is there

 

image.thumb.png.9ffbcca8f90639113cc714b01a788e26.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

This all starts to happen in 4/5 days time.  We will know soon where this high is going. I’m liking the gfs sticking to its thoughts. Ukmo similar. If ECM can follow suite in the morning then the wording of “There is potential for spells of more organised precipitation, accompanied by stronger winds to move north from the continent into southern and central areas.” Becomes a distinct possibility.

 

Before the north get the hump you are in the game as well but to be fair I think you are anyway.

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

Best chart at this range so far from the GFS. Slow moving heavy snow showers down the sea level . The upper air temperatures seem to always trend slightly colder as we get to more reliable timeframes. 
BANK

99EB50C9-C96C-4F2A-AE48-FAD743A9538C.png

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted

Anyone notice how that low in the Atlantic gets completely blocked by the mid Atlantic ridge and then retrogresses back towards Canada,  very interesting 

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted

We're going from the fridge into the freezer this run.. 

 

Look at that cold ready to drop.. 

 

No mixing on this one. 

 

407182115_gfsnh-0-180(3).thumb.png.195ab6da294b626f956dc52ccdc44eb7.png

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

This much cleaner evolution squeezes out the dreaded warm sectors ECM was throwing up I spoke of earlier, so much better.

gfs-1-186.png?18ECM0-192.GIF

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

OMG!  Have I been transferred to a different dimension?  GFS at T180:

91E96FA9-F6D9-4B6B-8421-AC6B703BCF59.thumb.png.8844bc2b200cafa94e150e2f643d1496.png

With the vortex out of the way, a resemblance of summer patterns?   Who knows, we are through the looking glass now?!!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Ths gfs is running another 12z out here and how uncanny the similarities are at 180 v's the 12z 186,the cold pool is gaining @strength

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.50faa4413471680fb15d9cec1e13adab.pnggfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.c788776f34786489d285c1da72ef5385.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

Output watching over the next couple of days isn’t for the faint hearted. The stakes have just gone up imo. I love it. At last a winter where proper output is making it absolutely fascinating.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

18zgfs with earlier ukmo going for the coldest angle of attack via Scandinavia. 

A step more towards deeper cold with probable snow showers from the east. 

 

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Subtle shift northwards of the developing low pressure for tomorrow on AROME 18z vs 12z, with greater intensity:

31583702_AROME12z.thumb.png.3078a35bc37e674bee56e850f128a86b.png109892672_Arome18z.thumb.png.39a92a4b4d181aabf2badf9fc09d7269.png

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

GFS vs GFSP at 144

gfsnh-0-144 (11).png

gfsnh-0-144 (12).png

Can't they just agree... 

Yeh its been like this all day!!gfs para and ecm v all other models!!who will be right though mate?para at 144 looks like the ecm!!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Really good GFS run so far and that elongated troughing upstream boxes in the high and stops it from escaping west at T198 hours .

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted (edited)

WOW!!!

print this and put it in a picture frame.

gfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.ae57392a17a6515a6529b6a207a767ae.png

and this,it looks like a direct hit with that cold finger.

gfsnh-1-210.thumb.png.d61d953fc5bd066df9d80c47fdd34c4b.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

We're going from the fridge into the freezer this run.. 

 

Look at that cold ready to drop.. 

 

No mixing on this one. 

 

407182115_gfsnh-0-180(3).thumb.png.195ab6da294b626f956dc52ccdc44eb7.png

Maybe we have moved from the top shelf of the fridge down to the bottom where the meat products are kept. Not sure its freezer territory yet . That said, it would be cold enough and in most places anything that fell would be white rather than wet. Its not just the 850s, I suspect dew points would be a bit lower, there would be less in the way of warm layers etc etc. A small but significant upgrade in the medium term. A change from -4 / -6c to -6c to -8c doesn't seem much but  it should move us the right side of marginal.

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