Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

I assume that because a fair few models have the "easterly" next week actually bringing air sourced from SE Europe rather than the preferable NE, thus slowly mixing out the coldish upper level air we currently have over the next few days?

2020 just keeps on giving.. we now have winter easterlys introducing milder air....  

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That may be because the maximum is now higher with the new 30 ensemble members, Tim?

No lol, I mean as a percentage - 29/30 members so 87%. It’s usually in a cold spell to see a few days of 20% but very unusual to see consecutive days with 50%+ a week away

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Lets hope gfs sticks with it and stays further north with colder 850s!!

 

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Luckily it is the Icon and all we have to discuss .

 

1 minute ago, AWD said:

I assume that because a fair few models have the "easterly" next week actually bringing air sourced from SE Europe rather than the preferable NE, thus slowly mixing out the coldish upper level air we currently have over the next few days?

I'll accept any Winter's over / cancelled comments based on this evolution. 

(sarcasm people, don't stress, it's a joke... For now ) 

[Frosty.]

Don’t you just love the words..associated wintry hazards?..try Exeter!..anyway..this is my last word on the GEFS 6z..honest guv!..but for sure, there would be some associated wintry hazards with a mean looking like this??..well intooo low res..indeed next week for example..looks colder than this week !!!!

Edited December 30, 2020 by Jon Snow

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

 

 

I'll accept any Winter's over / cancelled comments based on this evolution. 

(sarcasm people, don't stress, it's a joke... For now ) 

That has to be the worst run ive seen in quite some time!!!got a bad feeling!!!

[Mike Poole]

Have to say I’m losing faith (if I had any) in the ICON, it seems to flail from one solution to another in this setup.  So to the 12s then, and I’ll state here right now that I’m not expecting consensus on anything!  The 5th Jan is now the SSW date for sure, here ECM Berlin chart T168:

And it looks favourable for us too, in line with other ECM runs, and previously when it was beyond 10 days out, the GFS //.

While it will be interesting to see how the op runs go, I’ll be interested most in the ensembles to see if the total removal of vortexy low heights from our half of the hemisphere (is that a quartersphere?) that we’ve seen in recent days continues, if it does, then confidence in the cold spell will increase as we move into the heart of winter.  

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mike Poole

[winterof79]

Just now, sheikhy said:

That has to be the worst run ive seen in quite some time!!!got a bad feeling!!!

Give up and say after me ....i believe

[Griff]

Just now, sheikhy said:

That has to be the worst run ive seen in quite some time!!!got a bad feeling!!!

Best get today's wobble out the way, but as far synoptics go, I thought we'd trended away from this on the last few GFSP runs, even this morning's ecm gave a 'happy ending'

[sheikhy]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Give up and say after me ....i believe

!!!we will know around 96 hours where tthe gfs will go!!if its further north with the high then all systems go!!if its further south then i think thats it for now!!!gota keep an eye on the energy over the top as well!!

[Djdazzle]

Why do I check the ICON? Because it’s there. Would I lose sleep over it? No.

[winterof79]

GFS with the NY snow too

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, winterof79 said:

GFS with the NY snow too

Looks marginal later.

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks marginal later.

i think it just fizzles out tbh dew points okay

Edited December 30, 2020 by winterof79

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

No lol, I mean as a percentage - 29/30 members so 87%. It’s usually in a cold spell to see a few days of 20% but very unusual to see consecutive days with 50%+ a week away

Your maths is poor thats 97% very strong signal there between 4-7th fingers crossed.

 

[JoeShmoe]

For all the uppers people they are currently -5 and its snowing again here ... bodes well for others hopefully !

[Fozfoster]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Your maths is poor thats 97% very strong signal there between 4-7th fingers crossed.

 

96.6666% actually  LOL

[SMU]

UKMO 96-

Looks a twinge colder than this Morning...

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

For all the uppers people they are currently -5 and its snowing again here ... bodes well for others hopefully !

Maybe a slight benefit that you live in Edinburgh, rather than lowland Bristol where -6'c at 850hpa hasn't been enough for proper snow

Regardless back to the models, and the GFS at T90 looks so much better than the ICON:

[That ECM]

T96 for gfs and Ukmo. Slightly colder for both.

[Tim Bland]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Your maths is poor thats 97% very strong signal there between 4-7th fingers crossed.

 

Haha yes, even better.Think I did 29 / 100 x 30 instead of 29 x 100 / 30. I’ve been off work for too long!  Either way there is little support for that Icon run thankfully

Edited December 30, 2020 by Tim Bland

[That ECM]

T120.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO good angle on the high/ridge at T120:

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Maybe a slight benefit that you live in Edinburgh, rather than lowland Bristol where -6'c at 850hpa hasn't been enough for proper snow

Regardless back to the models, and the GFS at T90 looks so much better than the ICON:

Being fussy, gfs heights a bit slower to rise around Iceland 

[Yarmy]

Wash streamer here:

 

Might be marginal IMBY, but should be snow further inland.

[Matt H]

UKMO 12z at t144 looks great to me!