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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    We saw on the ensembles yesterday that warming trend mid month was a lot more prevalent in the south than the north.  The signal for a battle lines to be drawn across the Uk somewhere is quite strong...So is the possibility of significant snow somewhere. It’s high risk high reward but I’d rather roll the dice than stay dry and pray for a light snow flurry! 

    235B39D7-103F-42A2-889E-B0578605EC36.png

    BBDE04AD-3D16-40E5-87EE-0EB347DDD121.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking
    17 minutes ago, Steady Easterly said:

    I think its obvious the models are struggling with various factors, ssw being the obvious one, cannot be taken seriously given the stark run to run differences, probably better off finding some old wallpaper to draw your own charts on.

    An alternative explanation is that many differentiated evolutions are possible from the present set of initial conditions, and the models are reflecting this accurately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    hate far away charts, but childhood setup, huge snow dump here, rain S of M4, nowadays usually just M4 south

    prectypeuktopo.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    Much much better foundations for a prolonged cold spell on the 0z GFS, rather than the boom bust type charts we saw yesterday. The slower build, Scandi-Greenland is much more assured in terms of a transition than a quick wham bam thank you mam flash in the pan Greenland HP.

    Couldn't agree more...exactly what I was thinking this mornings UKMO, ECM and GFS 0z (though slightly strange early on) all look more promising for a prolonged cold spell and possibly getting colder.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    Cherry picking here but the control run certainly looks good at t216 with a polar low sinking south within cold air and bringing non-marginal snowfall for many. Fantastic model runs this morning though, glad everything still looks so positive!😄❄️
    C90A54BA-B32E-4D76-A0EC-762A065692F4.thumb.png.9d6882e64195bc973a326ca42b236eab.png0D08AA04-3F2A-45E9-B1FC-E5D3431310AE.thumb.png.50eabd92cf00041882cf3875b4b9eaa4.pngFADCC048-8DAF-4987-BA3B-3CF85415D5C9.thumb.png.413bf39a68ab4e9cc995937b75e132e2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    2 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

    And completely hopeless for southern counties of England. ‘Nationwide’ snow event that ain’t - I appreciate London is like a different country but still part of the UK last time I looked! 😄

    Much like tomorrows 'miss' with the snow heading into the Channel, we could do with this correcting about 100 miles south

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    What a stonker! I haven't seen many stalling battleground snowbands like that, since the glory days of the 1960s and '80s!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Warning... FANTASY ISLAND!

    90's! could produce snow days here, where places like Penzance sweating at 13 degrees

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    Posted
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow events, cold zonality. Heat and humidity.
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent

    This is the 500Hpa convective snow chart the Kent Crew have been waiting to see.  A kink in the ENE flow on the NW convective quadrant of a deeper more discreet cold pool over NE France.

     Its getting into the semi reliable now, 120 hours.

    Finally after what feels like weeks of waiting we can finally start pinning the tail on the donkey here in the snow starved SE.

     😃

    image.thumb.png.895b4137b8a005a6c7a833a347c834e1.png

     

     

    Edited by Kent Clipper
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Both the op and para showing a QTR signature later week 2. ( look at the NH profile and see the ridge headed into the pole, splitting the tpv).  It could be argued that a wave around mid month isn’t that quick and could be seen as a standard 2/3 week later (given that the strat is already reversing above 75N in the upper strat as we begin the new year ....

    Whether this wave will be of assistance to bringing deep cold to nw Europe is a moot point ..... it may remove what we have and lead to a relaxation of a week 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    8 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

    And completely hopeless for southern counties of England. ‘Nationwide’ snow event that ain’t - I appreciate London is like a different country but still part of the UK last time I looked! 😄

    Assuming the front get that's far north. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    The thing is, once cold becomes entrenched over the next week or so effectively supercooling our little nation down, anything that comes from the Atlantic, whether it be a temporary slider or a full return to westerlies, someone somewhere, will be buried. 

    It's one of those situations where when a breakdown of the cold does eventually happen, it may even be better than the main course. 

    Edited by Eskimo
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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    morning runs keep it on the cold side through to about 5th Jan, pretty much guaranteed. 

    beyond that - no point looking - events in the strat clearly stressing the supercomputers.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

    The GFS could forecast the next ice age and air cold enough to freeze the English channel and some in here still wouldn't be happy. Beautiful GEFS mean at T192.

    MEAN.thumb.png.1152a561ac76e87414c0e2a2d61038ec.png

    You'd struggle to find a better mean at that range.

     

    Oh, I’m all about the mean. That’s excellent. Good alignment with Exeter, too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    A couple of posts have been removed. 

    Please keep moaning about personal snow chances to the regionals or indeed the moans thread. 

    Ta. 

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    4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    The GFS could forecast the next ice age and air cold enough to freeze the English channel and some in here still wouldn't be happy. Beautiful GEFS mean at T192.

    MEAN.thumb.png.1152a561ac76e87414c0e2a2d61038ec.png

    You'd struggle to find a better mean at that range.

     

    That's a bit of me! Looks like we could really be close to something special 

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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