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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    So the METO thinking of systems moving up from the near continent starting to show its hand

    image.thumb.png.d91f04fb25cec7bbc00fb6051170ebb8.png

    image.thumb.png.7142db90fd70f768ae99b0f0ecdb5f9d.png

    kinda reminds me of 10 years ago, days of week the same

    archives-2010-1-9-12-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    What a mess! The ECM op really is crazy , outlandish is being kind .

    Clearly the upcoming SSW is causing mayhem.  

     

    Crazy and outlandish in what respect Nick?

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    What a mess! The ECM op really is crazy , outlandish is being kind .

    Clearly the upcoming SSW is causing mayhem.  

     

    The ecm op d9-10 have been worthless of late, its usual problem, and not worth the paper it is printed on. A clear outlier statistically by d10:

    graphe0_00_306.49836731_150.974304199___.thumb.png.0b25b0f7b1e2e841593b8464390cfb99.png

    As with the gefs, by d9 lots of spread (10c) for uppers so it can be assumed that there is also entropy in the ecm 0z?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Crazy and outlandish in what respect Nick?

    The change between its 12hrs run beggars belief . And a series of phasing incidents to develop that Atlantic pattern . There’s more chance of me joining the Moonies than that run verifying .

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Morning. Some great posts of late by many very informative. So a great start to the day on all models giving what looks like a decent spell of cold wintry weather. Gfs oz is pretty epic in fi even with a wb - nao. Ec gets there even if looks a bit of a line dance to get there. Ukmo pretty solid imo. Onwards and upwards hopefully 🙏🙏🙏

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Extended clusters are so wide that eps can’t get them within six. 
     

    gefs extended show wide range of outcomes and despite the end week 2 mean trending flatter and even showing a W euro ridge on eps with Atlantic and e euro trough, the reality is that the max temps only show 20% of members above 5c so odds are that any drift away from the euro trough would deliver a chilly high (which is not a bad place to be in expectation of a downwelling wave )

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    Good consistency until 4th and cold. After that who knows ( the ECM Op certainly doesn't seem to have a clue )

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    The ECM spreads show we have lost a coherent signal beyond D9 - a vast area of green showing variability in outcomes

    Screenshot_20201230-084612.thumb.png.93fa86b71119c1c13c4854876c041736.png

    But strong indication that the lower heights are maintained across W Europe at day 10. The uppers spread at day 9 shows the possible ingress of less cold as far north as the midlands although that drifts back into the continent by day 10 

     

    image.thumb.png.cb46f66ec9fc1c9910daca6cc55d4770.pngimage.thumb.png.9ef6b51e555919fcdf416cb712076cb1.png   
     

    image.thumb.png.fd5814f5353f9be08e9ed57c4099e26b.pngimage.thumb.png.870c577ade6577f8d204f3d1bb8d0c24.png    

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny

    Are the interesting yet unusual operative evolutions and wide ensemble spread indicative of the models trying to get to grips with developments in the strat?

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    48 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    So the METO thinking of systems moving up from the near continent starting to show its hand

    image.thumb.png.d91f04fb25cec7bbc00fb6051170ebb8.png

    image.thumb.png.7142db90fd70f768ae99b0f0ecdb5f9d.png

    I remember a forecast way back I think from Michael fish on bbc and when a similar chart showed then they said between 30-50cm of snow .

    anyway the low veered off to the east of uk delivering its snow to Germany and Low Countries instead .

     

    not saying that would happen again , my point is the totals that are capable from a system such as this colliding with cold air . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    Well the overnight models show different scenarios as they start to come to terms withe impending effects of the SSW?One of those situations where we can only go to t+120 in the semi reliable.Yes things look good for coldies but maybe I am looking through IMBY glasses for Southern Britain but we have been here before(only 48 hours ago we were looking for quite a significant snow event only for 24 hours for it to go TU).That said by law of averages we must hit the jackpot soon and uppers do seem to be lowering in next 5 days.Also interesting how gfs toys with a Scandi high?
     

    Lots of possibilities a few of them milder but the majority still cold.Not easy hoping for snow in the SE❄️🤣!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Just a word of caution for those looking at charts that show a low that has isobars that originate from the Med. They may initially give snow for some but eventually the air becomes milder even at the surface and a thaw can set in. Keep isobars North of East to sustain any hope of cold persisting.

    I've been struggling with this John. I know the ECM is currently showing the very thing you mention, but I would have thought a flow originating from Turkey, in early Jan with minimal solar input, would cool sufficiently to be snow-laden by the time it gets to the UK. For shorter land tracks e.g. directly up from the med around Italy, sure, I would agree, but the tracks being modelled seem to originate much further east? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Looks as if (by Day Sixteen) the GFS 00Z is headed in the desired direction; the build-up of deep cold being rather impressive:👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And the ensemble temps stay depressed, at least until  the latter stages of the run, when scatter creeps in; scatter, which may well be down to the positioning of the Atlantic LP... It does, after all, take only one silly +10C T850hPa ensemble member to skew things?🤔

    t850Derbyshire.png    prmslDerbyshire.png

    t2mDerbyshire.png    prcpDerbyshire.png

    Meanwhile, the NH Profile is still slowly 'coming round':👀

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-120.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    Note to newbies: Charts at T240 or more are referred to as 'Fantasy Island' for a very good reason!:santa-emoji:

    PS: See JH's caveat, re Mediterranean air, above?😄

     

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    I've been struggling with this John. I know the ECM is currently showing the very thing you mention, but I would have thought a flow originating from Turkey, in early Jan with minimal solar input, would cool sufficiently to be snow-laden by the time it gets to the UK. For shorter land tracks e.g. directly up from the med around Italy, sure, I would agree, but the tracks being modelled seem to originate much further east? 

    I have to be honest and say my comment was based on one UK Met chart ( well I thin it was a UK Met chart) someone showed about 1h+ back. I've not had time to look more closely but will do so when I have a bit more time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    9 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Morning all

    Hope you are well!

    Cold/wintry for many at the moment and the risk of wintry hazards (new Met Office buzzword for Winter 2020/21 😃) for the foreseeable future - what’s not to love!? 😁

    Fantastic model/chart viewing at the moment - sleet/snowfall risk to low levels throughout the UK and Ireland for the remainder of this week/weekend.

    Day five is catching my eye this morning!

    ECM 04/01 01:00

    055A691B-E7ED-4D1F-B32C-C85B86DDBD47.thumb.gif.4f53e64f69c424e42faaf0f0cd0875cc.gifC0F9322C-4B0B-4C1F-A0B6-FB5744C3F9F9.thumb.gif.5af06f9af4b1c6802b5d49ffa682d5b3.gif
     

    UKMO 04/01 01:00

    CCE480F6-BC70-4B7D-BC8D-74D57E492F15.thumb.gif.f85d50bc6eef51841f3867fcaccb87ad.gifC817C552-77E7-425A-9B3C-A230967B5442.thumb.gif.257e389e3feebc09c9f66e586e58de46.gif

    UKV - 04/01 03:00

    5241500C-2D92-4E21-95EE-7EBBBF03E440.thumb.png.ca086ee64f75b57e077e736afbd48a4d.png
     

    A50025E6-7914-4F04-AE00-77F93066CC79.thumb.png.db1c9e477e44487f3b5d25fba792c5e2.png

     

    FBE182A9-8E17-4595-AC75-0615F7BF57B9.thumb.png.8cd8d73de138901c8559c596c0dc0398.png
     

    E6BD275C-1E26-4DA6-9929-318E5BD9A52B.thumb.png.18d7bc31ece32705b859e3720216880c.png
     

    All the above subject to change at this range but what an outlook for a cold/snow lover at the moment! :santa-emoji:

    All the best to you all! 

    That look beautiful mr frost😍!!850s of -7 and is that snow showers pushing into eastern areas!!!!looks right side of marginal to me!!

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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