Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

So the op moving towards the ecm, which looks better up to d10?

The 0z op looks better than the 6z IMO, significant spells in FI of non-marginal uppers with big snow events, 6z not going to end well.

[The Enforcer]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The rain arrives with the positive Dp’s. Any convective showers early next week ahead of the rain could well be of a wintry nature and even potentially snowy. But at the moment, the arrival of the proper precip is in conjunction with some less cold air both aloft and at the surface. As others have said, this could change but not what the models currently show ... we can’t see what Ukmo is hiding beyond heights and uppers ! 

Thanks. OK, but that didn’t seem to be a problem for many areas this week when starting upper temps and dew points were less favourable? I thought that one of the headlines from this morning’s runs was that the South Eastern Mediterranean feed responsible for the less cold easterly had been cut off in favour of  South Eastern Europe or even further north than that depending on the model responsible.

Also, isn’t this going to become a recurring issue when looking at charts that appear to be getting all the high bar criteria set for snow and then the precipitation arrives with its mild sector and knocks everything below the bar again?

Edited December 31, 2020 by The Enforcer
Managed to edit rather than reply to myself this time.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

If I had a pound for every time I've read that!...fact is cold getting slightly less cold with a possibility of it getting colder again is closer to the mark, looking at Day 9/10...although both 0Z GFS/ECM are not far apart on their runs I wonder how long it will stay like that?

Very true. But the Atlantic looks certain to be blocked off at t+120 so it should all be good from there.

[Ice Day]

GFSP and ECM at 192

  

A pretty decent match there, so odds are that this is our future, or something akin to it.  This set up could really deliver something spectacular for our shores, BUT is likely to create a lot of angst in here as there's a lot that could go wrong.  I'll happily take it, at least we're in the raffle!

[swfc]

Deep in fi but the gfs 6z brings a push in Heighths from the azores and stops the jet moving sse. I've a suspicion come Tom be a totally different scenario 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

GFSP and ECM at 192

  

A pretty decent match there, so odds are that this is our future, or something akin to it.  This set up could really deliver something spectacular for our shores, BUT is likely to create a lot of angst in here as there's a lot that could go wrong.  I'll happily take it, at least we're in the raffle!

Yes agreed, and keeping an eye on this, but beyond it's fair to say no idea how things will proceed. Interesting though. 

[Yarmy]

I've been looking for some public verification stats on the GFSP (the next version of the GFS set to go live in Feb 2021), but they are non-existent as far as I can tell.

Ryan Maue, however, was underwhelmed back in the summer:

 

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Much better runs overnight... Should be a relief to your left testicle, Crewe?

and my leg (haven't decided which one yet) but won't be getting a new hacksaw blade out just yet as we're looking until D9/10 again as next week looks like a chilly wet affair in our parts!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

 

Some fair points 

If the easterly survived for a few days longer then I expect the source of the air would become more e european/ Russian and therefore colder 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

I've been looking for some public verification stats on the GFSP (the next version of the GFS set to go live in Feb 2021), but they are non-existent as far as I can tell.

Ryan Maue, however, was underwhelmed back in the summer:

 

It’s basic verification stats don’t seem to show any improvement. Whether it’s better in respect of not producing dartboard lows or dealing with split flows -  I guess we’ll find out 

[Man With Beard]

A word of caution - a lot of ECM ensembles went the way of the GFS 06z this morning between D11 and D15. Still, everything is rather unpredictable after D7.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Nice 0z ens and alot going on it appears,counting down to the dramatics.

According to Matt H, a significant displacement event of the vortex is looming, Gfs now going one further and following up with a split and complete demise of the vortex by mid Jan. Lots to get excited about in the coming days.

[AmatuerMet1963]

Hello, just an update. I wont be continuing my forum here, its more for techically advanced people than me an old analogue person who only uses farenheit still.  So I dont really fit in. Just to say, I have seen quite a bit of snow in Wigan today, more than for several years. Its lovely to watch and blackbirds were sitting in the snow at 7am in the day awaiting their first food. After that I managed to feed 36 in total of robins some tits, and more than the usual sparrows.

I end my time here, with a longer range forecast I seen online today. The High pressure to the left of us for so long  heading towards Scandinavia while low pressure remains in Europe. this leads to strengthening North Easterlies, which forcasters prompt may be here to stay.  Further it will bring even colder air over the uk and of about 5th or 6th January will start feeding heavy snow showers that will get as far as the Manchester in the early days. Is this a possible "Beast from The East" scenario?

I will come back to see any replys, but wont be posting again, my abilities to understand what's being discussed is way beyond me.  Im a general analogue Michael Fish!!!.

happy new year to all, and hope a severe spell doesn't happen we dont  want covid high and broken bones adding the NHS crisis......!!!!

[WeatherWatchmanG]

2 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

Hello, just an update. I wont be continuing my forum here, its more for techically advanced people than me an old analogue person who only uses farenheit still.  So I dont really fit in. Just to say, I have seen quite a bit of snow in Wigan today, more than for several years. Its lovely to watch and blackbirds were sitting in the snow at 7am in the day awaiting their first food. After that I managed to feed 36 in total of robins some tits, and more than the usual sparrows.

I end my time here, with a longer range forecast I seen online today. The High pressure to the left of us for so long  heading towards Scandinavia while low pressure remains in Europe. this leads to strengthening North Easterlies, which forcasters prompt may be here to stay.  Further it will bring even colder air over the uk and of about 5th or 6th January will start feeding heavy snow showers that will get as far as the Manchester in the early days. Is this a possible "Beast from The East" scenario?

I will come back to see any replys, but wont be posting again, my abilities to understand what's being discussed is way beyond me.  Im a general analogue Michael Fish!!!.

happy new year to all, and hope a severe spell doesn't happen we dont  want covid high and broken bones adding the NHS crisis......!!!!

Covid isn't of concern people will be in doors at home not mixing as for broken bones people who are not driving will be getting deliveries and should stock up on the right footwear or grips to be prepaired. We've got those things with shoe spikes to grip the ice and snow its the delivery drivers I am concerned for. can not grit the path because if they slip the resident would be held liable for damages.

[Anthony Burden]

Just a thought,has GFS taken in to consideration this up and coming SSW I would

imagine That would dramatically change their Synoptics especially 192hrs onwards.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

Hello, just an update. I wont be continuing my forum here, its more for techically advanced people than me an old analogue person who only uses farenheit still.  So I dont really fit in. Just to say, I have seen quite a bit of snow in Wigan today, more than for several years. Its lovely to watch and blackbirds were sitting in the snow at 7am in the day awaiting their first food. After that I managed to feed 36 in total of robins some tits, and more than the usual sparrows.

I end my time here, with a longer range forecast I seen online today. The High pressure to the left of us for so long  heading towards Scandinavia while low pressure remains in Europe. this leads to strengthening North Easterlies, which forcasters prompt may be here to stay.  Further it will bring even colder air over the uk and of about 5th or 6th January will start feeding heavy snow showers that will get as far as the Manchester in the early days. Is this a possible "Beast from The East" scenario?

I will come back to see any replys, but wont be posting again, my abilities to understand what's being discussed is way beyond me.  Im a general analogue Michael Fish!!!.

happy new year to all, and hope a severe spell doesn't happen we dont  want covid high and broken bones adding the NHS crisis......!!!!

Don't give in mate, there are loads of excellent knowledgeable folks on here who will learn you loads just by following there posts...And there are some who will be happy to answer your questions via PM..Many of us are still learning,and its what is partof the excitement of weather...we learn something new everyday..There is also a great learning Forum on this site,and worth checking out...stick with it,you will only improve.. Happy New Year to you.

[Northernsnow]

wow I almost spit my coffee out this morning. What fabulous output we are seeing at the moment. We are heading into the freezer make no doubt about that. Thank you to everyone here for there great analysis. I’m still very new to this but great fun learning. 

[MKN]

1 minute ago, Northernsnow said:

wow I almost spit my coffee out this morning. What fabulous output we are seeing at the moment. We are heading into the freezer make no doubt about that. Thank you to everyone here for there great analysis. I’m still very new to this but great fun learning. 

You pick a chart at +312 hours from perturbation 19 of the gfs ensembles to back up we are definitely heading into the freezer. Bit misleading and at such range wont verify. 

[BARRY]

8 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

Hello, just an update. I wont be continuing my forum here, its more for techically advanced people than me an old analogue person who only uses farenheit still.  So I dont really fit in. Just to say, I have seen quite a bit of snow in Wigan today, more than for several years. Its lovely to watch and blackbirds were sitting in the snow at 7am in the day awaiting their first food. After that I managed to feed 36 in total of robins some tits, and more than the usual sparrows.

I end my time here, with a longer range forecast I seen online today. The High pressure to the left of us for so long  heading towards Scandinavia while low pressure remains in Europe. this leads to strengthening North Easterlies, which forcasters prompt may be here to stay.  Further it will bring even colder air over the uk and of about 5th or 6th January will start feeding heavy snow showers that will get as far as the Manchester in the early days. Is this a possible "Beast from The East" scenario?

I will come back to see any replys, but wont be posting again, my abilities to understand what's being discussed is way beyond me.  Im a general analogue Michael Fish!!!.

happy new year to all, and hope a severe spell doesn't happen we dont  want covid high and broken bones adding the NHS crisis......!!!!

Don't give up been on here since 2006 lurk and learn is a great way to understand what's going on

 

[rdt123]

13 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

Hello, just an update. I wont be continuing my forum here, its more for techically advanced people than me an old analogue person who only uses farenheit still.  So I dont really fit in. Just to say, I have seen quite a bit of snow in Wigan today, more than for several years. Its lovely to watch and blackbirds were sitting in the snow at 7am in the day awaiting their first food. After that I managed to feed 36 in total of robins some tits, and more than the usual sparrows.

I end my time here, with a longer range forecast I seen online today. The High pressure to the left of us for so long  heading towards Scandinavia while low pressure remains in Europe. this leads to strengthening North Easterlies, which forcasters prompt may be here to stay.  Further it will bring even colder air over the uk and of about 5th or 6th January will start feeding heavy snow showers that will get as far as the Manchester in the early days. Is this a possible "Beast from The East" scenario?

I will come back to see any replys, but wont be posting again, my abilities to understand what's being discussed is way beyond me.  Im a general analogue Michael Fish!!!.

happy new year to all, and hope a severe spell doesn't happen we dont  want covid high and broken bones adding the NHS crisis......!!!!

You shouldn’t pack in. I’ve been here since 2005 and only pop in every winter in the hope of snow. I understand a little but much is over my head. I just pick the posts that give me a sense of whether my chart reading is right 

[Battleground Snow]

Mean perhaps slightly improved here at 186, better heights into Greenland. Also attached short ensembles for London

 

[Man With Beard]

12 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

Hello, just an update. I wont be continuing my forum here, its more for techically advanced people than me an old analogue person who only uses farenheit still.  So I dont really fit in. Just to say, I have seen quite a bit of snow in Wigan today, more than for several years. Its lovely to watch and blackbirds were sitting in the snow at 7am in the day awaiting their first food. After that I managed to feed 36 in total of robins some tits, and more than the usual sparrows.

I end my time here, with a longer range forecast I seen online today. The High pressure to the left of us for so long  heading towards Scandinavia while low pressure remains in Europe. this leads to strengthening North Easterlies, which forcasters prompt may be here to stay.  Further it will bring even colder air over the uk and of about 5th or 6th January will start feeding heavy snow showers that will get as far as the Manchester in the early days. Is this a possible "Beast from The East" scenario?

I will come back to see any replys, but wont be posting again, my abilities to understand what's being discussed is way beyond me.  Im a general analogue Michael Fish!!!.

happy new year to all, and hope a severe spell doesn't happen we dont  want covid high and broken bones adding the NHS crisis......!!!!

I'm sorry you feel like that, for me the beauty of this thread is that everyone from complete novices to seasoned pros can contribute. And the experts are often wrong too! You are definitely welcome here on your analysis of snow for Manchester next week, well, I'm on your side, I know some of the main models show rain but for me only small adjustments are needed to get the parameters snow friendly, models showing rain are worst case scenario imo! Hope you are enjoying snow this time next week

[IDO]

Looking at the d8 gefs, and it is clear, that period and onwards has FI entropy:

No clear way forward yet, and although I suspect the gfs op may lead towards the ecm ridge, after d9 there are too many power plays to know where the pieces will fit. A few runs more to try and find a path?

Nothing exciting re cold or snow in London on the short ens:

850's> 2m temps>

 

[snowblind]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean perhaps slightly improved here at 186, better heights into Greenland. Also attached short ensembles for London

 

Mean just touching -7 on the 4th then back up to about -5 after that. Could really do with that dipping a bit further to increase snow chances next week. Still time.

[cidersnow]

21 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

Hello, just an update. I wont be continuing my forum here, its more for techically advanced people than me an old analogue person who only uses farenheit still.  So I dont really fit in. Just to say, I have seen quite a bit of snow in Wigan today, more than for several years. Its lovely to watch and blackbirds were sitting in the snow at 7am in the day awaiting their first food. After that I managed to feed 36 in total of robins some tits, and more than the usual sparrows.

I end my time here, with a longer range forecast I seen online today. The High pressure to the left of us for so long  heading towards Scandinavia while low pressure remains in Europe. this leads to strengthening North Easterlies, which forcasters prompt may be here to stay.  Further it will bring even colder air over the uk and of about 5th or 6th January will start feeding heavy snow showers that will get as far as the Manchester in the early days. Is this a possible "Beast from The East" scenario?

I will come back to see any replys, but wont be posting again, my abilities to understand what's being discussed is way beyond me.  Im a general analogue Michael Fish!!!.

happy new year to all, and hope a severe spell doesn't happen we dont  want covid high and broken bones adding the NHS crisis......!!!!

I've been lurking on here for a dozen winters at least now and enjoy all the sensible contributions. I have seen 'noisy' contributors come and go. I have seen many flavours of the season in terms of critical analysis but the fundamental principles of forecasting remain. Over the years I have been more enthralled by the psychology of the contributions than the the meteorolgy and that requires the site to be populated by members with different views and different experiences. Please don't feel the need to leave based on your 'analogue' analysis. 

Good luck and Happy New Year 

Russ