Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Daniel*]

Better retrogression pull towards Greenland which is good.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Daniel*

[Man With Beard]

Looking at the ECM D6, there's clearly a lot to resolve around Greenland, and also on how heights to the NW interact with heights towards Russia. What would be ideal would be for these two areas of heights to be kept apart, allowing the deep low to the north to track southwards, pulling down a northerly and "deep" cold. But in reality, this could go a number of ways from this point in the run onwards - more cold options than mild, though milder variants couldn't be discounted e.g. stalled low SW. 

[winterof79]

Not overly happy with this particular run at 168z but hey ho

[Weathizard]

The ECM is starting to look like what the met office suggested in their forecast for the period with high pressure close or nearby to the U.K, at least for a time before possibly moving into a more favourable position.

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

400m snow line Scott?? 

As the precipitaton moves through you need to be higher than 400 metres for snow if not 500m

[Battleground Snow]

ECM is still a slight improvement on its 00z run, a ukmo/ECM blend would be nice!

[Kentspur]

12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 all 3 plus gfs mean. ECM has the high closer to Scotland. Ukmo 1/2 way house. I’d take the ukmo.

Lovely ECM 04/01 tighter isobars ENEly, is it safe to mention a thames streamer?❄

Edited December 29, 2020 by Kentspur

[Griff]

Reminds me of the GEM this morning... 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Griff

[sheikhy]

Pretty dud ecm tonight!!could have been worse but this exactly how i expected gfs to look earlier on!!!high little further south!!need a push north tomorrow morning!

[Met4Cast]

12z FAX charts take tomorrows low pressure southwards into N France now. It's game over for southern England, expect the MO to cancel the warning in the morning.

Onto the next one! Plenty to look forward to.

[Daniel*]

I thought it would.... Arctic floodgates would be opened.  

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

As the precipitaton moves through you need to be higher than 400 metres for snow if not 500m

What we're today's parameters for the snow mate surely lower than that or am I losing it. Feet yes. 

[North East Blizzard]

Ecm is fine, slower evolution, but looks like its moving North to me. 

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Lovely ECM 04/01- 05/01 tighter isobars ENEly, is it safe to mention a thames streamer?❄

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Kentspur

[Tim Bland]

22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM rain/snow for tomorrow, first chart is evening, second later in the night. Another marginal affair south of the M4. Various wintry showers further N and W. 

More snow for Scotland and possibly N England on Thursday

Looks light and patchy, Barely 1cm in the south

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

As the precipitaton moves through you need to be higher than 400 metres for snow if not 500m

Not many people will be getting snow in that case!

[Met4Cast]

Not to be overly picky, but it's too far west on this run. Looks to be developing into a west based -NAO

UKMO was much better in terms of placement.

[Howie]

Yeah the ecm looks very similar just a slower evolution and as pointed out it might actually be best for a slower evolution to stop a west based -NAO

[Howie]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Not to be overly picky, but it's too far west on this run. Looks to be developing into a west based -NAO

UKMO was much better in terms of placement.

And there goes my theory lol

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I thought it would.... Arctic floodgates would be opened.  

I've seen a few charts like this over the last day or so (mainly GFS) and they've struggled to even slightly open the gate...

[Man With Beard]

Seems a bit academic but ECM T192 does offer a possibility of a big northerly incoming, as long the Atlantic high doesn't retrogress too far.

[Mike Poole]

Holding off comment on ECM until now, T192, this looks great, possibility that it would side with GEM, which as discussed earlier was a decent run, it doesn’t, but here the doors come off:

Could end up like that GEFS P2 that @feb1991blizzard posted earlier.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

What we're today's parameters for the snow mate surely lower than that or am I losing it. Feet yes. 

A lot better all snow above 160m. At 66m high i needed a 0.8 degree drop via evaporative cooling to see snow and got it after 45 minutes. Its extremeley marginal bar the first hour of precipitation or so and backed up by met warning who have the snow line at 500metres

[sebastiaan1973]

Well looking at the EC oper output it seems, that a Greenlandblocking at the onset of the SSW is good possible. This is the profile of the SSW composition. In this way not good. Chio pointed out we have to watch at 100 hPa. I question how long will the weak vortex stay there, without 'help' of the SSW.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Lovely ECM 04/01 tighter isobars ENEly, is it safe to mention a thames streamer?❄

Still showing as rain due to the positive DPs unfortunately. See tweet from meto which discusses. Sorry gang. I’ll try and find my positive pants for tomorrow!