Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[goosey007]

42 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lower heights @gfs.12z- but this could actually aid as we evolve!!!!!!

Loving this positivity tight isobar!!!!

 

[Kentspur]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM takes the middles ground between GFS and ECM Weds eve with 10cm in the south..dare is say south of the M4

GEM shows sweetspot over NW Kent get in the likes of Steve Murr, Locksbottom Biggin and Daniel and I would be very happy, with this but I can't trust the GEM, GFS shows no settling snow at all its further West lets hope it can be hero for once!

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kentspur

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

If this run sits within the ensembles regarding precip/ evolution  etc were in the doo doo.

Doo doo.  But I thought it was a good run if wacky. 

Anyway I preferred this morning's run  with its gentle ways of bringing in the easterly and then the high heading northwest.  Far more civilized

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Improved mean at day 7

Judging by that determines it is extremely progressive with retrogression. Very good charts though. 

[Sweatyman]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Viewing it through wetterzentrale but you just get use to see purples and deep blues at the 500hpa levels on charts, even the classic winters have them 

But with that GFS run, its hard to grasp

 

Yes i get you now! Quite a difference indeed. Maybe some crazy days ahead...

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

When looking the ukmo 120 hour chart you wouldnt expect the 144 hour to look the way it did!!i expected more of a ridge going further north and east towards scandi and a stronger easterly flow further north across the uk!!

Agreed, it is because it doesn't really split enough of the energy of that low T96 SE and so  the  shortwave it sends NE suppresses the pattern SE.

Looking at GFS ensembles then an Op type scenario with virtually all the energy going S/SE under the block and much better NH profile with the high further NW may not be as unlikely as some think though definitely not the form horse.

If ECM doesn't go for it tonight then it is probably a no go but very interesting change GFS is looking at as a possibility in the near term.

The evolution from 144 does seem even more unlikely though.

Can't see a trough dropping directly S and blowing up, much more like to take a S/SE path and not develop like the Op which would be a drier run but a lot colder with -10 850's quite possible from the N/NE by day 9/10

So really looking forward to ECM tonight to see where it goes.

I'm thinking it could be the coldest (850's) run it has produced yet by day 10 but who knows with just 1 Op run, the ensembles will be more telling.

[Kasim Awan]

I think any Northerly from Greenland with this would be a little fresh. Jumper weather.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Agreed, it is because it doesn't really split enough of the energy of that low T96 SE and so  the  shortwave it sends NE suppresses the pattern SE.

Looking at GFS ensembles then an Op type scenario with virtually all the energy going S/SE under the block and much better NH profile with the high further NW may not be as unlikely as some think though definitely not the form horse.

If ECM doesn't go for it tonight then it is probably a no go but very interesting change GFS is looking at as a possibility in the near term.

The evolution from 144 does seem even more unlikely though.

Can't see a trough dropping directly S and blowing up, much more like to take a S/SE path and not develop like the Op which would be a drier run but a lot colder with -10 850's quite possible from the N/NE by day 9/10

So really looking forward to ECM tonight to see where it goes.

I'm thinking it could be the coldest (850's) run it has produced yet by day 10 but who knows with just 1 Op run, the ensembles will be more telling.

Im thinking the same!!think ecm will take the middle ground but with maybe a more easterly flow showing widely across the uk before the retrogression!

[Djdazzle]

Lots to be decided still. Pretty much looking at T120 as the outer limit of any reliability.

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM takes the middles ground between GFS and ECM Weds eve with 10cm in the south..dare is say south of the M4

I checked the GEFS panel there was a few  with high content like that! maybe its a bit steep though - 

GEFS mean - Lovely with the mean dropping circa -7c now.

The key here is the cut SW of any low that comes through Scandi - The GFS is to tight ( ie to far west ) thats because it wraps the jet up quickly very circular, where as its likely to be more oval shaped meaning the cut point is further East.

This would be my locale- 

PTB 29 perfect cut point...

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

 

S

[Man With Beard]

 

The GEFS mean at T180 is one of those charts you'd get if you let a coldie on netweather draw the lines. This is UK cold perfection - strong high WNW, steady cold and hints of instability to the east.

[Matt H]

GEM 12z casually attempting to line up the sub -20C uppers... bonkers.

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS is surely showing a QTR to any potential SSW? Almost instantaneous, in fact. This is what a complete zonal and Atlantic shutdown looks like. Easterlies stretching from Russia to Canada!!!

There seems to be two drivers to split the strat vortex, one from the top, and one from the bottom - the latter seems to me to be more likely to lead to a split.  In which case, the trop pattern would already have the effects baked in.  I’m certain I have read about SSWs episodes (as distinct from the sudden warming events that define them) where the cold impact has preceded the actual warming.

[NewEra21]

I don't mean this to come across negatively, because the charts are just phenomenal. But just imagine how crazy this would have been if we had the intense cold on our side of the northern hemisphere. It really would have been sensational!!

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I checked the GEFS panel there was a few  with high content like that! maybe its a bit steep though - 

GEFS mean - Lovely with the mean dropping circa -7c now.

The key here is the cut SW of any low that comes through Scandi - The GFS is to tight ( ie to far west ) thats because it wraps the jet up quickly very circular, where as its likely to be more oval shaped meaning the cut point is further East.

This would be my locale- 

PTB 29 perfect cut point...

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

 

S

What you make of the ukmo steve?what you think it would look like at 168 hours!!defi expected more of an easterly feed across the uk at 144 hours compared to what it showed!

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

I don't mean this to come across negatively, because the charts are just phenomenal. But just imagine how crazy this would have been if we had the intense cold on our side of the northern hemisphere. It really would have been sensational!!

Still is time.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

I don't mean this to come across negatively, because the charts are just phenomenal. But just imagine how crazy this would have been if we had the intense cold on our side of the northern hemisphere. It really would have been sensational!!

It may yet come.

[Anthony Burden]

7 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Do you have a link please mate?

High if you have Twitter just tap in Matt Hugo

[SMU]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

What you make of the ukmo steve?what you think it would look like at 168 hours!!defi expected more of an easterly feed across the uk at 144 hours compared to what it showed!

UKMO would be more oval high so an Easterly for England with that cutter low somewhere up by scandi...

[Stu_London]

43 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I don't know if its wetterzentrale scaling at the 500hpa level  but that chart is totally  bonkers!

Has the Western Hemisphere ever been so devoid of upper level cold in the deep midwinter ever before. 

Maybe the earth has dropped on its axis several degrees and no one noticed.

[Kasim Awan]

All the halmarks there for a potential switch to retrogression & northrlerly D6-8. Models heading in this direction with a credible trend evolution.

[Matt H]

Well those predictions of a UK high a certainly off to a flying start this afternoon...

[Radiating Dendrite]

7 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I don't mean this to come across negatively, because the charts are just phenomenal. But just imagine how crazy this would have been if we had the intense cold on our side of the northern hemisphere. It really would have been sensational!!

Yes, but it would not be happening if that was the case 

[Snowjokes92]

What an unusual looking gfs 12z. Its quite extreme in fact. Theres not much to compare to in the archives for that run. All this before then SST and also in the depths of winter. Fascinating model watch for sure.

[Jason H]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Lots to be decided still. Pretty much looking at T120 as the outer limit of any reliability.

I don't think that's in the reliable time frame (even the outer) at all. The evolution on the GFS just looks wrong to me. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but synoptically, I just can't see it playing out like that. I would urge caution peeps. The High to the North West is gradually inching closer to the UK each run too. Again, this is outside the reliable. The future still looks cold regardless.