Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Done deal in my opinion!!barr a miracle!!!those ridiculous amount by ecm yesterday seem to be over done!!!!

I think regardless of any shifts, we aren't going to be seeing those amounts now!

Just to note though, remember there is equal chance Thursday's shift eastwards. In much the same way as channel lows shift southwards, typically set-ups where fronts come down the country adjust eastward closer to the time. On the upside, they did a decent job with todays area of precipitation.

Not saying that will happen, but one to keep an eye on...

[AWD]

Just now, Malcolm Edwards said:

I'm not terribly gened up on model reading but does this mean rain is more likely? 

 

In Guernsey possibly.

[Skullzrulerz]

At least us in the Far SW gets a chance of seeing some snow..falling 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

If 12z gfs shows the same as 06z up to 192 hours i will be happy!!but i think it will probably show the high closer to the uk and and more energy going over the top!!!still will look good but maybe like the gfs 06 para!!hope im wrong!!

The way the icon has improved with the high at a higher latitude, I'd expect the other models to slightly adjust further north also, let's see what happens though!

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think regardless of any shifts, we aren't going to be seeing those amounts now!

Just to note though, remember there is equal chance Thursday's shift eastwards. In much the same way as channel lows shift southwards, typically set-ups where fronts come down the country adjust eastward closer to the time. On the upside, they did a decent job with todays area of precipitation.

Not saying that will happen, but one to keep an eye on...

Yup i was thinking the same!!now that the snow for the south has gone into the channel it might take thursdays snow slightly further east!!!a lot to keep an eye on!!

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Malcolm Edwards said:

I'm not terribly gened up on model reading but does this mean rain is more likely? 

 

I think youll struggle to get any precipitation down south at all temperatures arent the issue its the system trending south. Still ive seen major errors 12 hours out with these low pressures so id still keep an eye on the radar

[chionomaniac]

I think that if you went down to the end of Brighton pier and held out your hand then you may just catch the edge of the system. Mind you likely to be rain there.lol. 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup i was thinking the same!!now that the snow for the south has gone into the channel it might take thursdays snow slightly further east!!!a lot to keep an eye on!!

Yeah, the upshot though is that its a sideway sweep on Thursday, so there is alot more room for error compared to the set-up on Wednesday. So confidence is higher with that set-up at the moment thankfully, especially for the north of England.

[DEYS(Kent)]

GFS 12z has tomorrow’s LP a smidge further north than Icon. Still rain on the coasts mind you.

Edited December 29, 2020 by DEYS(Kent)

[kold weather]

12z GFS operational looks basically the same as the 06z, small area of snow for the far south.

As I noted earlier, there is still WIDE range of options on the ensembles, I looked through well over 100 ensemble runs from various models earlier and honestly there was still plenty of scope for movement, though I do personally faovur a more southerly track, if purely based on history.

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I think youll struggle to get any precipitation down south at all temperatures arent the issue its the system trending south. Still ive seen major errors 12 hours out with these low pressures so id still keep an eye on the radar

Yes Scott to see any snow you'd have to get on a clipper from Kent...

Joking aside though these systems that swing in invariably do track further north at the last minute.The lows that track across the midlands usually  push further north to south Yorks eg.

 

[terrier]

16 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Thursday mornings snow on its way down the country.

Unfortunately that looking more wet than white at 9pm at night. Unless your up near tan hill. Let’s see what the gfs is showing later. Hopefully moves away from a west based NAO set up but let’s see what happens. 

[SMU]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Well looking through all the high res models i think its increasingly looking likely tomorrows snow is a bust!

12z High res not run yet. 

Wait for Hirlam.

This was the UKMET 00z 48

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Malcolm Edwards]

10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I think youll struggle to get any precipitation down south at all temperatures arent the issue its the system trending south. Still ive seen major errors 12 hours out with these low pressures so id still keep an eye on the radar

Thankyou I will keep an eye out. 

 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

12z High res not run yet. 

Wait for Hirlam.

Yeah still time for change. I hope this does trend back north for you southerners

[Stu_London]

GFS is still quite keen on the area of PPN wrapping back around - so all might not be lost

Somewhere like Ashford might do quite well. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Stu_London

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12z High res not run yet. 

Wait for Hirlam.

This was the UKMET 00z 48

 

I'd say that based on all the models/ensembles that I've seen the mean would be somewhere around that area.

Of course the 12z suite may well change that, we will have to see.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

GFS is still quite keen on the area of PPN wrapping back around - so all might not be lost

Ends up giving 5-10cms to the far east of Kent.

Have to say I didn't spot many attempts at that set-up in the ensembles from the 06z runs mind you. Far more were way north of the M4 for example than gave that set-up from the 12z GFS op.

Still could be a trend, you never know.

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12z High res not run yet. 

Wait for Hirlam.

This was the UKMET 00z 48

 

12z UKV has and is keeping with the southerly theme.

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, terrier said:

Unfortunately that looking more wet than white at 9pm at night. Unless your up near tan hill. Let’s see what the gfs is showing later. Hopefully moves away from a west based NAO set up but let’s see what happens. 

We shall see as there will still be snow cover 

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12z High res not run yet. 

Wait for Hirlam.

This was the UKMET 00z 48

 

Steve..

ALL other high-res models have it way to the south of the UK. I don't think a lone run of the HIRLAM is going to rescue it on this occasion..

[SMU]

^

I remember a lot of non ukmo fans saying day 6 never lands

look at todays T24 V T144 from 24th

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

12z UKV has and is keeping with the southerly theme.

Whats worth noting is just how much faster the models have been making this sytem.

It was originally due to come overnight, now its basically clearing the channel by 9pm! Does make some sense since a weaker system will have less of a fujiwara effect with the main low and so will be more prone to swing faster and further south around that parent low.

 

[winterof79]

Never say never

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo 120, looks solid!