Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Daniel*]

I don’t think ECM has ever truly relaxed the pattern not once I have seen the Atlantic westerlies breaking through like the GFS has the EPS was actually the one which was most against relaxing of blocking, which is why I was a bit confused by ECM det. The EPS has pulled a blinder imo.

[IW Met]

46 minutes ago, West is Best said:

A deep freeze 6z run with the first signs of proper cold pooling in Europe: something which has been remarkably lacking in recent years (climate change):

 

 

I still think the evolution to this however looks precarious and I urge caution for everyone's sanity.

 

I find comments like this extremely frustrating. People seem to forget so quickly!  
The only reason the cold is not over our side of the northern hemisphere is because of synoptics, plain and simple. The cold is there, its just the wrong side of the pole.

Jan 2019 was pretty weak but still plenty of cold in the northern hemisphere and N Europe! 

Feb 2018 perhaps? 
  

Lack of cold in recent years! 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Island Visions

[SMU]

27 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Is the dreaded West based -ve NAO a worry?

Not expected now. NAO will be East based.

[pureasthedriven]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t think ECM has ever truly relaxed the pattern not once I have seen the Atlantic westerlies breaking through like the GFS has the EPS was actually the one which was most against relaxing of blocking, which is why I was a bit confused by ECM det. The EPS has pulled a blinder imo.

Bookmarked this deep FI GFS chart back on 16th. Given MetO warnings today and UKV progs currently, looking disturbingly close to the mark if comes to fruition... 

[IanT]

Hello sailor...

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by IanT

[Frigid]

What a beauty of a chart from the 6Z GFS. Easterlies w/ the high pressure retrogressing to Greenland. What we all look for in a fantastic winter!

[Eskimo]

18 minutes ago, Island Visions said:

I find comments like this extremely frustrating. People seem to forget so quickly!  
The only reason the cold is not over our side of the northern hemisphere is because of synoptics, plain and simple. The cold is there, its just the wrong side of the pole.

Jan 2019 was pretty weak but still plenty of cold in the northern hemisphere and N Europe! 

Feb 2018 perhaps? 
  

Lack of cold in recent years! 

Spot on. 

Whilst I'm sure climate change has diluted the potency of the cold somewhat over the decades, today's view just shows that most of the severe cold is just bottled up over Siberia. As you say, the gears just haven't been in the right place to drag any of it across to Europe over the past few weeks. Simple as that. 


 

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not expected now. NAO will be East based.

That’s not set in stone later week 2 as the highest anomoly still shows west greeny into ne Canada 

as per yesterday’s musings (before Matt tweeted btw ), the northerly plunge is gaining traction and at the same time the Atlantic is still headed east. without sufficient ridging from greeny area towards nw Europe, we could see the Atlantic trough pivot ne to meet the low heights headed south (not too dissimilar to the 06z gfs op) 

[Jason M]

41 minutes ago, Borei said:

I'd suggest that the relative absence of cold pooling in Europe in recent years has been due to synoptics. You casually ascribe this as due to 'climate change' but frankly that's un-necessary and un-proven.

Would you ascribe cold pooling this year as due to climate change? 

As I look through all the reports of snow today I also reflect back on your persistent posts in MO telling us that 850s were too high. 

Synoptics are everything, and climate change or not, we currently have the kind of synoptics which clearly make warmists a little uncomfortable.

 

 

It never ceases to amaze me how rude people can be when communicating in the written form. Would you express your disagreement in this way if you were sitting opposite the person?

In my view climate change clearly is a factor albeit the primary one is Synoptics. Maybe 95% Synoptics 5% global warming. Our climate has and continues to change and to imply that this doesn’t impact in marginal situations like this is wrong in my view....albeit your entitled to hold a contrary one. 

As for the 850s they are and will continue to be an issue this week. It doesn’t mean no snow will fall but it does mean that for many of us it’s going to literally be a nowcast situation all week to see whether it’s wet or white.

hopefully as we progress later into the week and next week a slightly colder (Maybe much colder) airmass will establish and remove the marginality. To criticize WIB for posting about the 850s being a problem is just wrong though, because many of the charts over the last few weeks have shown this to be a problem and whilst others were ramping its quite right that people should be entitled to point out that the amazing screaming easterly that is sourced from the med is actually showing rain! As one poster correctly pointed out the other day in response to an outbreak of ramping over a particular chart ‘it’s not even cold rain, it’s just rain’.

also, what is a ‘warmist’?
 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Jason M

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

19 minutes ago, Island Visions said:

I find comments like this extremely frustrating. People seem to forget so quickly!  
The only reason the cold is not over our side of the northern hemisphere is because of synoptics, plain and simple. The cold is there, its just the wrong side of the pole.

Jan 2019 was pretty weak but still plenty of cold in the northern hemisphere and N Europe! 

Feb 2018 perhaps? 
  

Lack of cold in recent years! 

Agreed, Siberia experiencing temps 20-25c below Dec average, cold backing/spreading west.  
 

I agree with WIB though re the caution as we have experienced scenarios like this that have sunk over the UK, but UKMO and ECM currently bolster confidence and for me we are better than WIBs 60/40 topple HP, but let’s see the continuation and get this Iceland HP in place and hold itself there.

 

BFTP

[BornFromTheVoid]

This is the MOD thread folks. Lets try not to derail things with arguments about climate change. If anyone wants to pursue that discussion then we can get a thread going in the climate area. Cheers!

[Stu_London]

Last few GFS runs have been consistent in pausing the cold spell around the 220 mark. 

Better run for 06z as it gets colder surface and upper temps established in the areas that could provide a reload further down the line. Hopefully the trend continues. 

[bluearmy]

The gefs mean through week 2 is pretty good .......

[Norrance]

Born from the Void has messaged not to discuss climate change in this thread. Any posts relating to this will be hidden.

[SLEETY]

if these trends continue,then severly cold air will arrive sooner than later,an excellent run.

[iceman1991]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

if these trends continue,then severly cold air will arrive sooner than later,an excellent run.

When we expecting it to begin sleety ? 

[Kent Clipper]

2 hours ago, Ice Day said:

Really good run so far, out to 150 and heights building nicely over 'Griceland'.  Any other winter this place would be in meltdown for these charts, but this year things are a bit different!

  

We have been bitten so many times and rightly we are still slightly cautious, the atmosphere is electric though. We are poised with champagne bottles in hand and fingers on the cork. If we are heading into easterly territory most of us would like just a couple of degrees shaved off those uppers before we pop that cork and get the party started.  FWIW a similar thing happened in the lead up to the late November 2010 event. For a number of days -7's were consistently being progged. A few runs started to drop in the odd pool of -10c in the North Sea, it grew and the rest is history. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kent Clipper

[SLEETY]

13 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

When we expecting it to begin sleety ? 

Looking like the severely cold air arriving towards the end of the first week of January,the models look keen on the high pressure retrogressing to Greenland which will allow the bitterly cold air bottled up over the Arctic to head SW over scandinavia  towards the UK.But lots of hurdles to get through first,this is the UK remember and everything has to line up perfect to get Severely cold air into the UK lol,as it always has been.

Wont be marginal snow for anyone if this happens,fingers crossed.

I always like looking at this chart as an example of high pressure retrogressing to Greenland

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by SLEETY

[iceman1991]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Looking like the severely cold air arriving towards the end of the first week of January,the models look keen on the high pressure retrogressing to Greenland which will allow the bitterly cold air bottled up over the Arctic to head SW over scandinavia  towards the UK.But lots of hurdles to get through first,this is the UK remember and everything has to line up perfect to get Severely cold air into the UK lol,as it always has been.

Wont be marginal snow for anyone if this happens,fingers crossed.

Thank you sleety for the info

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEFS 06 z ensemble mean.

very good mean and likely staying cold until 11th Jan at least

[BARRY]

10 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GEFS 06 z ensemble mean.

very good mean and likely staying cold until 11th Jan at least

 A good looking chart with loads of potential 

[nick sussex]

Although you can get freezing conditions at the surface with the upper layers not being that cold because of inversions for convective easterlies you need that large temp differential over the North Sea between the deeper cold and the warmer seas to generate that .

And it’s not just depth of cold but also how much instability is on tap.

Frontal snow is a different affair altogether.

In the UK easterlies come with vastly different ground conditions , for example sheet grey skies with snow grains.

But easterlies seem to have mythical properties in here but very few live upto that reputation .

A 5 star easterly needs both instability and deep cold which  occurs with  an injunction of deep upper cold from the Arctic which then gets advected west into the UK.

Thats not shown by the current modeling upto day ten so we have to make do with what’s on offer and squeeze as much cold out of what is in effect a cold pool developing in situ to the east which moves west.

Its neither good nor bad , it is what it is but I’d rather be watching how this evolves than staring at a rampant PV to the north and mild sw crud.

So a lot to be cheerful about . 

[Froze were the Days]

CFS goes along similar path as the GFS 06z up to day 10...thereafter deepens a circular low near the Azores northwards, which is a possibility into FI. 

 

As WIB mentions a precarious path to deeper cold as per GFS 06z, HP could slip either south near the UK or to keep the heights to the north the LP's need to be more of a shallower form moving west to east not in situ.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[syed2878]

A genuine question to you knowledgeable folks out there The model output at the moment is fantastic to say the least however my question is with the output we are seeing why is the UK but not forecasting that in their extended outlook are they saying something that we are not with all the data they have at their disposal I would have thought they would of picked all this up yet in their extended that are going with no significant cold.

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, syed2878 said:

A genuine question to you knowledgeable folks out there The model output at the moment is fantastic to say the least however my question is with the output we are seeing why is the UK but not forecasting that in their extended outlook are they saying something that we are not with all the data they have at their disposal I would have thought they would of picked all this up yet in their extended that are going with no significant cold.

A few reasons.

don’t want to put there neck on the line because things change.

it’s in FI (fantasy Land)

& it’s not certain yet.