Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Scott Ingham]

31 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

Meters of snow 

Hahahaha!

[Kentspur]

14 minutes ago, smhouston said:

Sorry but that's not a mild outlier with it having support from other ensembles 

Not too concerning yet though. Until this pattern starts setting itself there will be many variations being thrown up

Well its clearly on its own around the 9th and 10th January, hopefully not the trend setter but I doubt it will verify with how much its been flipping about from run to run the likes of the control run are no way near as mild as the op there. Unless the likes of EPS/ECM and the GFSp start showing similar I won't be hitting the panic button based on an 18z GFS op run

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kentspur

[Jason M]

This has been a really strange period in terms of the output. I have never seen so many awe inspiring yet not particularly cold charts. I thought the 12Z suite was colder than any before, but the 18Z is a minor step back.

There must be about 20 'screaming easterlies' in the ensembles, but rather than the beast from the east its the mouse from the med! 

Some interest this week, but a bit meh IMHO, but next week hopefully holds more interest if we can just move the pattern a bit.

[Scott Ingham]

39 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

GFS op was a clear mild outlier as expected ensembles look fantastic-these for my location NW Kent

Look at the grouping on the 12th hovering around -12!

[Jason M]

9 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Look at the grouping on the 12th hovering around -12!

Isn't it odd though how few GEFS we are seeing going through the -10c 850 mark. Given the pattern and overall position the fact that 30 GEFS plus a control and opp can't find full on beast in the next 16 days is astonishing really.

 

Edit: A couple do just about make it

Edited December 28, 2020 by Jason M

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Look at the grouping on the 12th hovering around -12!

I would say -6-7 Scott there to be fair with the mean just above -5

i am liking the De-built wind direction,it's certainly cranking up those E/NE'lies

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

I would say -6-7 Scott there to be fair with the mean just above -5

i am like the De-built wind direction,it's certainly cranking up those E/NE'lies

 

I actually meant to put -10 hahaha but yeah -6 and -7 it was a quick glance

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

I actually meant to put -10 hahaha but yeah -6 and -7 it was a quick glance

No worries mate

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Isn't it odd though how few GEFS we are seeing going through the -10c 850 mark. Given the pattern and overall position the fact that 30 GEFS plus a control and opp can't find full on beast in the next 16 days is astonishing really.

Its because all the coldest upper air has been pushed over to Asia. On the flip side its helped us sustain northern blocking but left us with -8 air tops.

Longevity and entrenched cold air should be cooling us down anyway but its again a cache22 this pattern because we could do with better upper temps if were looking at convective easterlies over a toasty north sea. The split strat will take care of all that.

We just need to stay cold and build up some snowcover while we can

[Stu_London]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I would say -6-7 Scott there to be fair with the mean just above -5

i am liking the De-built wind direction,it's certainly cranking up those E/NE'lies

 

Problem at the moment is the origin - some of that PV from the other side of the world moving over as per the control run would get a few really cold ensemble members in play.

I have to say, agree with Jason M on the amazing hemispheric pressure patterns, yet very poor temperature profiles. 

Even in the worst zonal mild winters there are a few crazy ensembles, that never get near verifying, that go off on one and hit below minus 15C - not seeing any of that this year. Suspect it is due to the deep cold being too far away - SSW might shake things up a bit

 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its because all the coldest upper air has been pushed over to Asia. On the flip side its helped us sustain northern blocking but left us with -8 air tops.

Longevity and entrenched cold air should be cooling us down anyway but its again a cache22 this pattern because we could do with better upper temps if were looking at convective easterlies over a toasty north sea. The split strat will take care of all that.

We just need to stay cold and build up some snowcover while we can

Clearly, that true but also we just can't catch a lucky break because almost every chart I'm looking at is drawing air from a long way south. By the time its been on its magical mystery tour around Europe its heavily modified and 'almost' cold enough to do the business but not quite. This week at times we might get uppers around -4c to -6c and usually a continental draw in late Dec / early Jan would be sufficient but its not just 850s that are an issue because its fundamentally a returning tropical air mass. Its like the Feb 2005 easterly that looked fantastic but dropped a lot of rain at low levels with places like the Downs getting buried. Its Theta values, its dew points, its warmer layers.

The minute we start to trace those isobars back to eastern and NE Europe rather than the med we will be in business (even if the 850s are still around -5c). 

[Kentspur]

Seeing as I'm on night shifts and always get a spare couple of hours at this time I thought I'd add to the model interpretation. To start the day off latest 0z Icon at t126 a marginal improvement on yesterdays 12z with heights pushing slightly further NE of Iceland and weaker troughing to the S&W of Greenland

 

Latest Icon 0z vs Icon 12z below

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kentspur

[Kentspur]

At t168 a much slacker easterly more of a very light Northeasterly showing on Icon 0z vs 12z at the same time yesterday, better to create home grown cold pools perhaps.

Higher heights north of Scandi, but a wedge of lower heights stretching SE from Iceland rather than to the SE of Greenland. Others may be able to interpet these better but I thought I'd give it a go with my limited knowledge, which has grown thanks to a good number of you pros, since I joined this forum as a lurker way back around 2004!

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kentspur

[Kentspur]

Considerably colder uppers at just t60 on latest 0z GFS run vs 18z last nights run

[tight isobar]

The minor back swerve of heights in the 00z are already making me salivate...!!! An introduction to a quicker/cleaner /more notable easterly component!!

Edited December 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[Kentspur]

The BBC mentioned an area of snow possible over East Anglia and the SE yesterday for Thursday in the weekly forecast- GFS shows this on latest run, and upper air temps on 31/12 a whole 4c colder on this run over parts of the SE.

 

A nice dumping for parts of Hampshire, Eastern England and the SE of England, Southern Scotland borders/ Northumberland, Northern Scotland and the Pennines and Lake District also❄?

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kentspur

[Kentspur]

Lovely end to UKMO 0z Heights stretching up and an Easterly in with minus 5-6c upper air temps across the country only one way this is going to go

[Mucka]

GFS 00z a little better than yesterday mornings  

 

 

No complaints there! 

 

I said that run was for the bin and I meant it. Not sure what happened with it.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Mucka

[Kentspur]

Absolutely stunning eye candy from GFS 0z almost becoming a long fetch Easterly and snow opportunities for many of us❄

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kentspur

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

I was originally sceptical about this winter, I thought it would be a case of deja-vu. However, the last 2 weeks of watching the models has really interested me.

We are at solar minimum, Nao and Ao going pretty negative along with an Average December which is always a good sign

The coming week will be slightly colder than average, along with a showery theme of weather. Snow surprises could just about pop up anywhere, so now casting is definitely key. 

 

However, for me, the main core of proper cold weather, ie from the east, with substantial falls of snow, will be from the second week of January.  !

[Kentspur]

GFS 0z has huge swathes of England under minus 8c uppers by 4th/5th January especially the Midlands Northwards 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kentspur

[Snowman.]

GFS 0z at D10 is so close to boom town.

Very  cold air just east, need a low to alog france and its locked in cold..

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Snowman.

[Snowman.]

The longer we leave a strand of low heights over eastern europe/med the better our chances are for a more quick direct attack. The low heights over the med allow for a better angle of attack and those over eastern europe allow for easier CAA.

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

GFS 0z at D10 is so close to boom town.

Very  cold air just east, need a low to alog france and its locked in cold..

 

Yes just need the pattern a little further NW and those troughs to help out.

GFS has found the worse possible scenario from 192 as is often the case with FI.

The trough to the NE would likely dig SW while the trough to the SW would disrupt E and link up leaving a cut off high instead of it sinking back SE.

I guess that is why we don't take FI charts too seriously, they just give us a sense of direction.

Hopefully we will see a cut off high modelled more and more with tight Easterly draw for the same period.

 

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Yes just need the pattern a little further NW and those troughs to help out.

GFS has found the worse possible scenario from 192 as is often the case with FI.

The trough to the NE would likely dig SW while the trough to the SW would disrupt E and link up leaving a cut off high instead of it sinking back SE.

I guess that is why we don't take FI charts too seriously, they just give us a sense of direction.

Hopefully we will see a cut off high modelled more and more with tight Easterly draw for the same period.

 

Eactly how I see it going in my head, likely just the GFS not wanting to disrupt East but it would calm the nerves if it did so correctly.

We're so close to an incredible cold spell it would be a shame if just goes SE.. must keep the faith!