Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

Yes nothing boring about our weather ,the difference this weekend we haven't got cold air in place we needed cold air in place ,we haven't .We need colder air  from  Scandinavia.So I'm not as bullish about this weekend prospects.

[mattrout92]

ECM says yes this morning:

 

As does the UKV Extended:

4 days to go!

[Pembs458]

20 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

ECM says yes this morning:

 

As does the UKV Extended:

4 days to go!

I wonder if there will be any more southward corrections?  Starting to look interesting even for the south west.  Even if it doesn’t stay as snow for long it will be nice to see, especially as it will be during the day this time. 

[keithlucky]

21 hours ago, dbaloo said:

Quick question...how well do people think last weekends snow was forecast by the TV forecasts in terms of depth and areas affected?

I am in no way trying to imply that they had it wrong or anything like that it's just more out of curiosity

Humans try there best we programme computers but when we get west to east movement east to west north to south mostly guess work Judith Curry sums it up perfectly. 

[Pembs458]

42 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Humans try there best we programme computers but when we get west to east movement east to west north to south mostly guess work Judith Curry sums it up perfectly. 

This makes sense.  My understanding is that the data used is historical data, therefore there will be much more data on typical weather patterns.  So when we have unusual Synoptics that the models won’t have dealt with much before, like we have now, they are bound to struggle.  Hence all the differences in output, even at short time scales.

I could be wrong though, fairly new to all this. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Pembs458

[lynncradick]

BBC weather app has us down Sunday for heavy snow from 8am until 12pm.. turning to sleet after that.  Will be interesting to see how much that changes before the day.. Will be nice if it does come off though. ☃

Edit - it's changed already, heavy snow from 2.00pm until 5.00pm  

I'll wait 'til Sunday and look out the window I think

Edited January 27, 2021 by lynncradick

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks like alot of heavy rain will be the main feature for the rest of the week with a chance of snow to higher elevations. Rainfall totals are a worrying concern ,seems to be the theme yet again

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, mattrout92 said:

ECM says yes this morning:

 

As does the UKV Extended:

4 days to go!

Similar to last Sunday then but maybe snow totals will be higher.

[Loadsa2000]

Here goes Jay

BBC have snow on sunday from 6am turning to sleet at 11am turning to rain at 2pm

Met has dry from midnight turning to sleet at 3pm turning to rain at 9pm

XC weather has rain from 12pm

Forecast from this site is the same as the Mets

who knows who is right, no point in planning anything in this country weather related.

Few years ago took my boat out of Swansea checked the met before i left home, contacted the coastguard (to report time out and expected back in) also checked the weather again.

Had a white knuckle ride back in when the wind picked up to a force 7. Spoke to the coastguard to report that we had returned earlier due to the weather. Was told that was a turn up for the books wasn't expecting that!!!

[dbaloo]

Bbc (at the moment) at the moment going for light snow am...heavy snow p.m till 5ish then sleet before turning to rain over night (blackwood on their forecast)

[Jayfromcardiff]

I've got a feeling Sunday may just be an hour of snow followed by a deluge of rain.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Sunday's low is now more of a slider by the looks so should produce more snow.

[RhysWales]

Looking at it, it reminds me of Feb 07 (?). A proper snow-rain event. It managed to stay snowing though between 8am and 7pm or something and caused my sister to be stuck on the m4 for 3+ hours. Washed away yes, but with it sticking around for daylight hours, it was the first really deep snow down this way in about 3 years. Never know, could happen again and snowfalls always seem to happen in small bursts close to each other. More chances hopefully into Feb!

[keithlucky]

8 hours ago, mattrout92 said:

ECM says yes this morning:

 

As does the UKV Extended:

4 days to go!

Saturday's rain doesn't reach SWales. Front slides south and misses us. Sunday sleet/slow is more interesting.Lets hope Saturday night a nice hard frost.GFS has slow moving front trying to push NEast across Wales.Precipation could stall over S Wales if so heavy snow/sleet. For Sunday into Monday. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, RhysWales said:

Looking at it, it reminds me of Feb 07 (?). A proper snow-rain event. It managed to stay snowing though between 8am and 7pm or something and caused my sister to be stuck on the m4 for 3+ hours. Washed away yes, but with it sticking around for daylight hours, it was the first really deep snow down this way in about 3 years. Never know, could happen again and snowfalls always seem to happen in small bursts close to each other. More chances hopefully into Feb!

Hopefully we get a decent snowfall on Sunday.

[mattrout92]

24 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Saturday's rain doesn't reach SWales. Front slides south and misses us. Sunday sleet/slow is more interesting.Lets hope Saturday night a nice hard frost.GFS has slow moving front trying to push NEast across Wales.Precipation could stall over S Wales if so heavy snow/sleet. For Sunday into Monday. 

Saturday certainly not without interest. UKMO has the low further South, and gets the cold in quicker too:

.          

[Jayfromcardiff]

9 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

Saturday certainly not without interest. UKMO has the low further South, and gets the cold in quicker too:

.          

Still looking good for snow on Sunday?

[mattrout92]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Still looking good for snow on Sunday?

Not as good as this morning, there has been a trend to push everything Southwards on almost all the models. GFS has continues with its snow to rain event, ICON doesn't even have the front hitting the coast line and leaves us with a dry day. ECM which is just rolling out has light snow for a short time, but nothing as significant as it showed this morning and UKMO looks similar to ECM. Still awaiting the UKV extended which should be out shortly 

[keithlucky]

9 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Still looking good for snow on Sunday?

I'm trying to stay cool, pressure building rapidly from N east  LP stalls heavy sleet / looks a good bet ATM. For Sunday

Edited January 27, 2021 by keithlucky

[mattrout92]

UKV for Saturday:

 

 

and Sunday:

    

[Jayfromcardiff]

21 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

UKV for Saturday:

 

 

and Sunday:

    

Decent then.

[Marcus_surfer]

Charts look bloody awful for the South of the UK! Lots and lots of rain with a huge boundary developing between mild air to the south and cold to the north. Unfortunately southern Wales is looking very marginal for snow unless your on highest ground

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, Marcus_surfer said:

Charts look bloody awful for the South of the UK! Lots and lots of rain with a huge boundary developing between mild air to the south and cold to the north. Unfortunately southern Wales is looking very marginal for snow unless your on highest ground

Met office is showing snow for Caerphilly and I'm under 100m.

[keithlucky]

29 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

UKV for Saturday:

 

 

and Sunday:

    

Again total confusion the the Met are saying the front on Saturday just about reaches the tip of Cornwall,even though models says reaching Midlands.Expect further adjustments west I think  a stalling front over S Wales Sunday looks a good bet.

[snowy36]

Still no idea what will happen on saturday or sunday.  I see Arpege says snow for saturday .