Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[A Frayed Knot]

North England and Midlands will get a Massive threat of flooding and Scotland will continue with the cold conditions with heavy snow and Blizzards. Us.....,

 

It's coming for the weekend

[Coilspring]

16 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

North England and Midlands will get a Massive threat of flooding and Scotland will continue with the cold conditions with heavy snow and Blizzards. Us.....,

 

It's coming for the weekend

I wait with baited breath......

[Coilspring]

The mod thread has turned into the covid thread now. Zombies AHHHH.

[Cymro]

9 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

North England and Midlands will get a Massive threat of flooding and Scotland will continue with the cold conditions with heavy snow and Blizzards. Us.....,

 

It's coming for the weekend

I must admit I’m getting really ****** off and frustrated with how much ‘Northern England and the Midlands’ is being mentioned for threat of rain and flooding when it’s blatantly obvious that Wales will bare the brunt of the rainfall and see huge flooding problems. 

Never have I felt Wales’ irrelevance more apparent on this forum and by the MET than this year! It’s an absolute disgrace! 

 

Going to buy a dinghey and listen to the Treorchy Male Voice Choir to cheer me up! 

 

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Cymro

[freeze for all]

39 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I must admit I’m getting really ****** off and frustrated with how much ‘Northern England and the Midlands’ is being mentioned for threat of rain and flooding when it’s blatantly obvious that Wales will bare the brunt of the rainfall and see huge flooding problems. 

Never have I felt Wales’ irrelevance more apparent on this forum and by the MET than this year! It’s an absolute disgrace! 

 

Going to buy a dinghey and listen to the Treorchy Male Voice Choir to cheer me up! 

 

 

I wouldn't have said we're going to bare the brunt of it looking at the radar? 

[Cymro]

53 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

I wouldn't have said we're going to bare the brunt of it looking at the radar? 

Look at what's happening overnight into tomorrow, the low filling in over Wales pretty static and continuous rain, most models showing excess of 200ml over north wales and between 60-80mm for North England and the midlands. 

There is a huge difference between the two. If I lived in the Conwy valley now, Llanrwst itself I would be particularly concerned. 

[andymusic]

[A Frayed Knot]

Mmm

[A Frayed Knot]

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

What date is that for?

[A Frayed Knot]

25 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

What date is that for?

1500, 23 January. 

[goosey007]

Just asking on the model thread ref below as well.......

How accurate is this euro4 at 48 hours out  ?  Im guessing not very......

showing continuous snow showers in our location for 6 hours plus at the moment...48 -54 hour mark...i can but dream......also a bit of back edge snow Wednesday evening also but the main course seems to be thursday am at the moment

you can use the link on the model thread to follow the full loop..........

[andymusic]

36 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Just asking on the model thread ref below as well.......

How accurate is this euro4 at 48 hours out  ?  Im guessing not very......

showing continuous snow showers in our location for 6 hours plus at the moment...48 -54 hour mark...i can but dream......also a bit of back edge snow Wednesday evening also but the main course seems to be thursday am at the moment

you can use the link on the model thread to follow the full loop..........

you've answered your own question very well - euro4 used to be very good but recently it's over estimating snow amounts - harmonie is better

[SP1986]

5 hours ago, Cymro said:

I must admit I’m getting really ****** off and frustrated with how much ‘Northern England and the Midlands’ is being mentioned for threat of rain and flooding when it’s blatantly obvious that Wales will bare the brunt of the rainfall and see huge flooding problems. 

Never have I felt Wales’ irrelevance more apparent on this forum and by the MET than this year! It’s an absolute disgrace! 

 

Going to buy a dinghey and listen to the Treorchy Male Voice Choir to cheer me up! 

 

 

I'm always mentioning Wales on the NW England thread, but then I live a few miles from the border so makes sense I suppose!

[goosey007]

29 minutes ago, andymusic said:

you've answered your own question very well - euro4 used to be very good but recently it's over estimating snow amounts - harmonie is better

nevermind...guys in the mod thread agree. looks saturday night sunday morning may be best chance though have a feeling this low will sink into france come T36/24 on the mods

[Loadsa2000]

See Jays shield is working

[mattrout92]

Snow for some on tonight's ECMWF run for a short time on Sunday:

the UKMO run is very similar:

[keithlucky]

6 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

Snow for some on tonight's ECMWF run for a short time on Sunday:

the UKMO run is very similar:

Maybe this is our time 

dont trust ECM 2 to 4cm would be great,followed by Northerly streamer.

Edited January 19, 2021 by keithlucky

[DeepSnow]

Would that still be too marignal for us to get snow on the coast again? As they show rain here 

[keithlucky]

25 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

Would that still be too marignal for us to get snow on the coast again? As they show rain here 

Close one to call let's see ,what dps  are showing on Friday no sign of warm sector in this shortwave so promising let's hope the weather Goes are on our side.

[keithlucky]

Interesting still the Polar Voted is smashed to pieces any one likes a good read. Have a look at the set up now comparing to the winter of 1928/1929 to now.You will see the second half of this winter was severe ,Lets see what happens to the rest of our winter..

[keithlucky]

2 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Close one to call let's see ,what dps  are showing on Friday no sign of warm sector in this shortwave so promising let's hope the weather Goes are on our side.

Even shows snow in SWest.Atm the track of the short wave is the problem we have to wait and see Friday we should know.

[Liam Ellis]

A weather station in Nant Gwynant, Snowdonia has recorded 80mm of rain today and this is just the start.

[Cymro]

Dyma sefyllfa llifogydd ar hyn o bryd: Ga’i bwysleisio eto mae’n hollol, hollol warthus a chywilyddus nad oes rhybudd oren Gymru gyfan ar hyn bryd! Mae’r Met sawl tro yn anwybyddu Cymru pan ddaw at rybuddion ac mae hyn yn effeithio ar ymateb awdurdodau a’u gallu i ddelio ag unrhyw broblemau! Mae angen lot gwell! 

 

This is the current situation in terms of flooding: Can it be emphasised again it is absolutely, absolutely disgraceful and shameful that there is no all-Wales amber warning at the moment! The Met repeatedly ignores Wales when it comes to warnings and this affects authorities' response and their ability to deal with any problems! We need a lot better!

 

 

[Jackfrost]

I do think there's a good chance that Wales could be more badly affected by flooding tonight than anticipated by the Met Office. I do understand why they felt the need to issue an amber warning for that swathe of England, considering the population density there combined with snowmelt, but there is the feeling that Wales is an afterthought for many UK-wide organisations in general, not to mention the Westminster government. I vividly remember the red warning for the Valleys in Storm Dennis being issued far too late, after the rain had fallen and as homes were being inundated and infrastructure damaged; if it had been issued earlier, a lot of the mess and misery (people would have been more prepared and would have moved important possessions upstairs for example, instead of the trauma of losing everything they owned) could have been avoided.

Have to admit, I'm feeling anxious tonight. We live in a house that has been flooded by overflowing sewers in periods of intense rain before and unfortunately I'll be pulling an all-nighter to keep an eye on the drains in the road out the front, and with all the emergency numbers on standby. It shouldn't have to be like this.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Jackfrost