Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Coilspring]

55 minutes ago, Weather roller-coaster said:

Do you think winter is going to be a nother bust again been for my local walk in the park daffodil are in bud already 

Daffodils come out regardless of the weather. 2018 they were almost fully out before they got buried in the snow. 

[Weather roller-coaster]

Just seems it gets pushed back did look promising the other day it's like it's not cold or mild going forward and I do live in Cardiff but we did have good falls of snow in the 80s

[Weather roller-coaster]

2 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

Daffodils come out regardless of the weather. 2018 they were almost fully out before they got buried in the snow. 

Hopping to see some thing soon it felt like winter before Christmas with the crisp frosty mornings

[kumquat]

Seeing sleet on the radar for over the Beacons. Any reports from a bit of height?

[Coilspring]

40 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Seeing sleet on the radar for over the Beacons. Any reports from a bit of height?

I'm at 270m asl. I can confirm it's raining. A lot. Just sent the weather dog out and it came back in wet. 

[A Frayed Knot]

Paddling down here. 

Dont worry our time is next week (later) we shall show the Biased Mad Head Thread and Yorkies what real S is... Fxxx there 20 cms of slush fest

[Coilspring]

2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Paddling down here. 

Dont worry our time is next week (later) we shall show the Biased Mad Head Thread and Yorkies what real S is... Fxxx there 20 cms of slush fest

All they're slush will have disappeared by Sunday anyway. 

[Simon SWales]

54 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Seeing sleet on the radar for over the Beacons. Any reports from a bit of height?

365m asl in Brynmawr and heavy rain with large flakes of extremely wet snow mixed in but temperature rising.

 

[kumquat]

2 minutes ago, Simon SWales said:

365m asl in Brynmawr and heavy rain with large flakes of extremely wet snow mixed in but temperature rising.

 

Thanks for reporting in. "but temperature rising". Looks like expected, I suppose. I was wondering where the first lowland place West could report some sleet/snow.  Looks like you have to have height in the Pennines on the first trough. Interesting between two fronts. Warm sector city, as expected.

[A Frayed Knot]

26 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

All they're slush will have disappeared by Sunday anyway. 

You knows it. 

Stay out of the Mad thread as all the pros have vanished and the Young ones are taking over who only seen about 7 inches of it in there prime time. Think they know it all. 

Yes Fxxx all. I shall be in there soon when I see where the fax charts are showing what I shall say, Bitter cold. Its coming. I tell you

Computer modelling is over rated.. Been waiting for this cold spell and the last one since last year's....

Edited January 16, 2021 by A Frayed Knot
Want to add to post

[Coilspring]

It was frosty at 4pm strangely but milder as the eve wore on. 

[Coilspring]

1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

You knows it. 

Stay out of the Mad thread as all the pros have vanished and the Young ones are taking over who only seen about 7 inches of it in there prime time. Think they know it all. 

Yes Fxxx all. I shall be in there soon when I see where the fax charts are showing what I shall say, Bitter cold. Its coming. I tell you

Yup. I think the average age in there is 14. 

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, Coilspring said:

Yup. I think the average age in there is 14. 

Yeh.. Months old.more like. Think they know it all. Its a pity was done good posters in the and especially OLD MET MAN. He was my favourite and also @Carathian. Ain't seen his posts for a while and @SteveMurr.. He's been banned though for his outburst, I don't blame him though as Mod fave him a poke and he reacted.. This reminds me of Metcheck back in 2001... Really biased. Ana anyone remember Metmonkey.. Bit like this.

[Coilspring]

7 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Yeh.. Months old.more like. Think they know it all. Its a pity was done good posters in the and especially OLD MET MAN. He was my favourite and also @Carathian. Ain't seen his posts for a while and @SteveMurr.. He's been banned though for his outburst, I don't blame him though as Mod fave him a poke and he reacted.. This reminds me of Metcheck back in 2001... Really biased. Ana anyone remember Metmonkey.. Bit like this.

It does seem to be very insular and over moderated to be honest. Metcheck back then used to be quite good but I suppose there wasn't much competition about. 

[Loadsa2000]

Could be interesting for us. Latest Met forecast

UK long range weather forecast

Wednesday 20 Jan - Friday 29 Jan

Rain and strong winds clear from the southeast during Wednesday. Most areas will see bright and mostly dry conditions following, but showers will affect the north and northwest. From Thursday onwards rather cold and unsettled conditions look likely for most of the UK, northwesterly winds will bring frequent showers, particularly to north and west-facing coasts, falling as snow over high ground and also down to lower levels at times. Atlantic low-pressure systems are expected to cross the south of the county at times, bringing rainfall and periods of slightly milder temperatures, and there will be a risk of snowfall on the boundary between the mild and cold airmasses. Northern and central areas are more likely to be affected by wintry hazards during this period.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sat 16 Jan 2021

M4 corridor North

Edited January 16, 2021 by Loadsa2000

[Loadsa2000]

As shown here

Edited January 16, 2021 by Loadsa2000

[freeze for all]

The way this winter is going I can c nothing but rain for us, I think we'll b on the wrong side of the cold air, I'm wrong but so far its been disappointing for us

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, Loadsa2000 said:

As shown here

Borderline again we need   jet stream  further south to drag in colder air ,Heavy wintry showers to follow.Winter not over by a long way. Going into our coldest month,

[Fujita scale]

At least we didn't have any disappointment today, we knew we were not getting anything.

Next week not looking good and I also believe we are on wrong side of marginal all the time and with no real cold in the pipeline it looks like we have another winter month fizzling away into mediocrity as much as I want to stay positive. I am always hopeful for the SSW to kick in with the right results for us.

JK

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, Fujita scale said:

At least we didn't have any disappointment today, we knew we were not getting anything.

Next week not looking good and I also believe we are on wrong side of marginal all the time and with no real cold in the pipeline it looks like we have another winter month fizzling away into mediocrity as much as I want to stay positive. I am always hopeful for the SSW to kick in with the right results for us.

JK

Met seems to go for wintry February so still plenty to look foreward to.

[Sky Full]

Lovely day here, at the moment.  Suns out, winds dropped, some daffs popping their heads up for a quick look - an early taste of Spring.    Bring it on, I say.  If we get some late snow, that’ll be bonus, but I’m starting to look forward to warmer weather in a few weeks time.  I need something to cheer me up, that’s for sure.   

[pyrotech]

Afternoon all

Remember, when we see the toys being thrown from the Pram on the main model discussion thread its often due to IMBY scenarios.

As majority are from Central and Southern England, you will see messages suggesting nothing interesting and mild outlook. If Snow was to fall in Wales, they may often report a bad outlook as its not falling in their area.

However next week does look interesting.

Firstly Flooding risk Tuesday to Wednesday for Us Cumbria and North West Midlands. Quite significant rainfall for some, After this clears cold artic air flows in behind and we have opportunity for snow showers. After that we get a battleground scenario. Now i suggest that its 60% chance due to model consistency that 23rd to 25th Jan brings this battle ground to Wales, Exactly where is less certain. It will most likely be transient thou as less cold air more likely right at the end of January. That lasts into first week of February, but after that more cold air looks more likely with possible Easterly flow. That may lead to more battle ground scenarios and undercutting shortwaves. 

 

Main drivers for cold

SSW 

MJO currently in phase 3 but moving to COD and hopefully Phase 7

Against is the Current MJO Phase 3 (10+ day lag) and La Nina.

This is early winter and full of potential.

 

[Jackfrost]

Some very concerning rainfall accumulation charts for Wales this week. 110-125 mm widely, up to 200 mm on high ground, which is in the territory of the totals that brought the devastating flooding from Storm Dennis last February. In the mid-range, a continuation of the pattern we have at the moment looks likely, with a succession of fronts off the Atlantic bringing mostly rain across our part of the world and some snow further north and east across England and Scotland.

Wish there was something more positive to report. Let's see what this evening's output brings.

If we consider winter to be Dec-Jan-Feb, yesterday we passed the midway point. It hasn't been a terrible winter overall, with some chilly periods at times, but it has been a bit frustrating for some of us. There's no real sign of a zonal Atlantic barrage but if we're to see an improved February, we really need a pattern shift and/or the influence of the SSW to show its hand.

Edited January 16, 2021 by Jackfrost

[Jackfrost]

The next window of potential looks like being late Wednesday into Thursday as this upcoming rainfall event looks like it could turn quite widely to snow towards its end. Worth keeping an eye on, I suppose, but the amount of rainfall this week and its potential impacts are my biggest worry at the moment (not least because I live in a house prone to flooding!)

Edited January 17, 2021 by Jackfrost

[Loadsa2000]

Just to confirm

Wales weather forecast

Sunday 17 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

Headline:

A sunny morning, then turning cloudy. Showers in the west.

Today:

A dry day for most, with some sunny spells though the morning before cloud moves in during the afternoon. A few showers are likely in western areas during the morning and in the north later. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Tonight:

Showers in the north continue through the evening, before spreading to most areas during the early hours. Some clear spells may develop, but cloud will move in again before dawn. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Monday:

A few showers are likely in the morning, before outbreaks of heavy rain move in for the rest of the day. Staying cloudy all day and winds will strengthen later. Maximum temperature 10 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Persistent heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly turning to sleet or snow on Wednesday night as temperatures cool. Strong winds on Tuesday. Brighter on Thursday, with scattered wintry showers.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sun 17 Jan 2021

 

and we still got this

 

UK long range weather forecast

Thursday 21 Jan - Saturday 30 Jan

From Thursday onwards rather cold and unsettled conditions look likely for most of the UK, as a low pressure system remains to the northeast. Northwesterly winds from this system are expected to bring frequent showers, particularly to north and west-facing coasts, and this will likely fall as snow over high level areas, and also down to lower levels at times. Atlantic low-pressure systems are expected to cross the south of the country at times, bringing rainfall and periods of slightly milder temperatures, and there will be a risk of snowfall on the boundary between the mild and cold air masses. Northern and central areas are more likely to be affected by wintry hazards during this period.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sun 17 Jan 2021

Edited January 17, 2021 by Loadsa2000