Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, keithlucky said:

Yes I use the South east LOL Wales will get a covering ,more to come Sunday.

Hopefully some blizzards for us all next week.

[mattrout92]

So the ECM actually develops a shallow feature on Saturday which brings a covering quite widely across Wales by Sunday morning:

(note the snow depths are in inches not centimetres)

Then later on a front moves in from the South West overnight Wednesday into Thursday bringing more significant snowfall as it bumps into the very cold air.

[Jayfromcardiff]

9 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

So the ECM actually develops a shallow feature on Saturday which brings a covering quite widely across Wales by Sunday morning:

(note the snow depths are in inches not centimetres)

Then later on a front moves in from the South West overnight Wednesday into Thursday bringing more significant snowfall as it bumps into the very cold air.

Looking good! I also wouldn't take these charts as gospel as we know we could end up with more snow than predicted fingers crossed.

[Coilspring]

3 hours ago, Storm Emma said:

Yep meto has me down for snow on Sunday, when was the last time we had 3 consecutive snowfalls on a Sunday? Also shows now for Tuesday as well. 

It seems to be the new tradition now. Snow on a Sunday. Bit like fish friday. But colder. And snowier. And with less fish. Actually,  nothing like fish friday. Ill get my coat....

[soupsurfer7]

In years gone by I always found that snow was more likely to occur on a Thursday haha that’s changed now

[Penfoel]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Hopefully some blizzards for us all next week.

.... Even for the westest on the coast? 

[Pembs458]

1 minute ago, Penfoel said:

.... Even for the westest on the coast? 

Tonight’s models not great for us in the south west.  Both GFS and ECM give us a snow to rain event on Wednesday into Thursday.  Hopefully they are underestimating the depth of cold and we might see the system track further south and not pushing right through us, turning things to rain.  Fingers crossed. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

8 minutes ago, Penfoel said:

.... Even for the westest on the coast? 

Hopefully!

[Jayfromcardiff]

ECM snow depth charts are crap for South Wales, lucky if we get an inch of snow out to next Wednesday. Just over the border they're looking at 1ft or more.

[keithlucky]

5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

ECM snow depth charts are crap for South Wales, lucky if we get an inch of snow out to next Wednesday. Just over the border they're looking at 1ft or more.

Look at the depth of the snow is irrelevant but shows were the easterly showery air stream will have the most snow. Plenty to look foreward too .I be watching the fax friday to see were the troughs form and were they going to hit.

[freeze for all]

22 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

ECM snow depth charts are crap for South Wales, lucky if we get an inch of snow out to next Wednesday. Just over the border they're looking at 1ft or more.

Easterly very rarely delivers for us unless there's a weather system approaching from the south or south west so just sit back relax and wait for the Atlantic to try and make in roads

[Jayfromcardiff]

20 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Look at the depth of the snow is irrelevant but shows were the easterly showery air stream will have the most snow. Plenty to look foreward too .I be watching the fax friday to see were the troughs form and were they going to hit.

Basically we need to get this weekend over and done with and hope for a low pressure system to approach from the SW that's probably our best chance I think.

[keithlucky]

7 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Basically we need to get this weekend over and done with and hope for a low pressure system to approach from the SW that's probably our best chance I think.

Jay you haven't got any mountains in the way on a brisk easterly unstable airflow you definitely get a good covering 2 to 4 inches look a good bet by monday.

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Jay you haven't got any mountains in the way on a brisk easterly unstable airflow you definitely get a good covering 2 to 4 inches look a good bet by monday.

Hopefully! I hope everyone in Wales gets a decent covering though not just the SE. Do you think we'll see troughs forming?

[keithlucky]

6 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Hopefully! I hope everyone in Wales gets a decent covering though not just the SE. Do you think we'll see troughs forming?

Definitely whatever you have east UK you can treble it some places will have red warnings.

Edited February 3, 2021 by keithlucky

[gareth moo]

The Fax charts are coming into range for the cold spell now. There's an occluded front unwrapping itself across the whole South of the UK Saturday and Sunday. I reckon loads of little features will pop up in the next few days too. Lows scattering the Atlantic unable to make headway. Little ridge over Portugal could push them back Northwards like storm Emma or throw one along the channel with us on the cold and snow-laden North side. Tidy range of opportunities coming folks. 

[Bartlett High]

All down to nowcasting at weekend and into next week snow could crop up anywhere ....radars at the ready!!!

[keithlucky]

1 minute ago, gareth moo said:

The Fax charts are coming into range for the cold spell now. There's an occluded front unwrapping itself across the whole South of the UK Saturday and Sunday. I reckon loads of little features will pop up in the next few days too. Lows scattering the Atlantic unable to make headway. Little ridge over Portugal could push them back Northwards like storm Emma or throw one along the channel with us on the cold and snow-laden North side. Tidy range of opportunities coming folks. 

Honestly the wrap around front its track is a nightmare as you said radar will be on for2 days in a brisk bloody cold wind .Good entertainment though.

[gareth moo]

3 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Honestly the wrap around front its track is a nightmare as you said radar will be on for2 days in a brisk bloody cold wind .Good entertainment though.

Once that occlusion exits into Holland the Easterly will be howling through - wind chill estimate will be interesting?!

[legritter]

1 hour ago, soupsurfer7 said:

In years gone by I always found that snow was more likely to occur on a Thursday haha that’s changed now

Yes i can remember late 70s and 80s it quite often snowed on a Thursday if conditions were good , heres to nxt  week . 

[mattrout92]

18Z GFS has Thursday next week as a snowy breakdown again for us, but not as good as ECM/GEM and is more marginal on the coast

[Jayfromcardiff]

9 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

18Z GFS has Thursday next week as a snowy breakdown again for us, but not as good as ECM/GEM and is more marginal on the coast

Hope we don't wait until next week for snow and then it's a case of snow to rain lol.

[andymusic]

9 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

18Z GFS has Thursday next week as a snowy breakdown again for us, but not as good as ECM/GEM and is more marginal on the coast

I'm not convinced the breakdown will be so quick and that easy - I think the cold "spell" will last longer with more Atlantic attacks before it finally collapses

[andymusic]

[mattrout92]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

That would be perfect!