Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

12 minutes ago, Pembs458 said:

So some models have various amounts of snow tomorrow for those of us in the south west, but others have it barely reaching Wales at all.  Will be interesting to see what actually happens.  I for one will be up radar watching in the morning.  
Hopefully those of you further north and east will get something out of today’s front, which seems to have stalled now and should move back south this afternoon.

BBC have sleet/snow reaching Wales by teatime reaching Breacon beacons and stalling mostly light giving 2cms over high ground.

[Pembs458]

11 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I agree, someone will have an egg on their face lol. It's the met office against most models then.

Both gfs and especially ECM are quite bullish about snow chances tomorrow.  Ukmo pretty much on its own with the front not reaching us. 
 

charts might be in wrong order sorry. 

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

24 minutes ago, Pembs458 said:

Both gfs and especially ECM are quite bullish about snow chances tomorrow.  Ukmo pretty much on its own with the front not reaching us. 
 

charts might be in wrong order sorry. 

 

If the ECM is correct then there will be quite a bit of snow across Wales. How can one model be different to the rest.

[soupsurfer7]

Very strange to have such divergence at this timeframe :s

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, soupsurfer7 said:

Very strange to have such divergence at this timeframe :s

Well the ECM nailed today's snow for the Midlands so I think I'll side with that.

[snefnug]

Now turning to wet snow, with dollops dropping off rooftops and trees.  Only a couple of centimetres, but very pretty to look at from inside.  6 miles  down the road, out of the valley, nothing except rain.

[keithlucky]

Really exciting weather come this time next week big battles coming.Fronts stalling over a west uk with cold N easterly .I'm going to use the word Blizzard's. Set up.

WOW

Edited January 30, 2021 by keithlucky

[goosey007]

1 hour ago, Pembs458 said:

Both gfs and especially ECM are quite bullish about snow chances tomorrow.  Ukmo pretty much on its own with the front not reaching us. 
 

charts might be in wrong order sorry. 

 

Well this should be exactly what the bbc show after 3pm today as they use ecm for there forecasts.....those of you who view the mad thread will know Tim bland harps on about this ......

Edited January 30, 2021 by goosey007

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Well this should be exactly what the bbc show after 3pm today as they use ecm for there forecasts.....those of you who view the mad thread will know Tim bland harps on about this ......

My gut feeling is that we won't see any snow but fingers crossed the ECM is correct.

[goosey007]

17 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

My gut feeling is that we won't see any snow but fingers crossed the ECM is correct.

Think if it's on tonights ecm I'll be happy to expect what it says......it was spot on last week ....hr by hr

[WINTRY WALES]

32 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Really exciting weather come this time next week big battles coming.Fronts stalling over a west uk with cold N easterly .I'm going to use the word Blizzard's. Set up.

WOW

Let’s hope we get those fronts stalling just in the right place ....I’d say 20% chance at the minute...let’s see if this chance increases later tonight?

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Think if it's on tonights ecm I'll be happy to expect what it says......it was spot on last week ....hr by hr

It's just strange that the met office model is different to every other one.

[snefnug]

Ooh, unexpected!  Heavy snow again.  Stalled front?

 

[keithlucky]

Perfect example of stalling front heavy snow atm across central parts as cold digs in from north.100 miles south could have been us in the south.Thats why met forecast for next weekend is exciting.

Edited January 30, 2021 by keithlucky

[Steve_Alltami]

Another snowfall up here in Gwernaffield at 800ft. Around 5cms so far.

[keithlucky]

3 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Ooh, unexpected!  Heavy snow again.  Stalled front?

 

Yes stalled front slowly fizzling out.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Im quite suprised theres no snow warning from the Met Office tomorrow for anywhere in Wales, given what the GFS and ECM are currently showing. Usually in such circumstances they put a warning out but in their warning matrix they select "Unlikely"......I trust they must be fairly confident that the front will not make it this far north.

Edited January 30, 2021 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[snefnug]

Very vigorous fizzling.  Do I detect a slight pivoting too?

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

Im quite suprised theres no snow warning from the Met Office tomorrow for anywhere in Wales, given what the GFS and ECM are currently showing. Usually in such circumstances they put a warning out but in their warning matrix they select "Unlikely"......I trust they must be fairly confident that the front will not make it this far north.

Maybe due to the uncertainty they'll wait until this evening before issuing one. At least we can do a bit of radar watching tomorrow lol.

[keithlucky]

7 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

Im quite suprised theres no snow warning from the Met Office tomorrow for anywhere in Wales, given what the GFS and ECM are currently showing. Usually in such circumstances they put a warning out but in their warning matrix they select "Unlikely"......I trust they must be fairly confident that the front will not make it this far north.

Bit ridiculous that 24hrs from now they can't agree.

[JamesL]

As expected a rain fest for the south today and it seems to have gone a little further north too and the warning zone was adjusted back north lol 

Tomorrow looks to be a better bet and as this front went a little further north it could bode well for tomorrow’s but this time we have the cold air in place 

Be prepared for either big upgrades or a non event lol 

Jay is right in that any warning will prob be issued later on today if it’s coming at all 

[mickeyflyn]

Temperature here in Newport had dropped from 7 deg earlier to 4.3 atm. According to my weather station we've had 15mm of rain in the last 12 hours.

[kitesurfingsteve]

Snowed all morning. llandegla north Wales the front appears to have just sat over us all morning. But 5 miles down the road it’s just rain. 

 

 

[Missdolly]

Temperature has dropped and getting very windy here in Merthyr Tydfil ! 

Brighter than it has been all day currently , snow forecast all day tomorrow ! 

[Jayfromcardiff]

48 minutes ago, JamesL said:

As expected a rain fest for the south today and it seems to have gone a little further north too and the warning zone was adjusted back north lol 

Tomorrow looks to be a better bet and as this front went a little further north it could bode well for tomorrow’s but this time we have the cold air in place 

Be prepared for either big upgrades or a non event lol 

Jay is right in that any warning will prob be issued later on today if it’s coming at all 

Derek is going for 1-3cm with 5cm on high ground in South Wales and says the ECM is going over the top.