Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Lisa34]

Just starting to snow very lightly here in Aberdare.

[Jayfromcardiff]

17 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

With 24 hours until the main event, here's the UKV from now until tomorrow eve:

 

 

 

Around 4 inches of snow in places? Things must be firming up as I've now got 3 hours of heavy snow on the forecast.

[goosey007]

10 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Around 4 inches of snow in places? Things must be firming up as I've now got 3 hours of heavy snow on the forecast.

I'll see your 3 and raise you one

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, goosey007 said:

I'll see your 3 and raise you one

Not that I trust these automated forecasts at all. I'll expect a dusting and anything else is a bonus.

[goosey007]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Not that I trust these automated forecasts at all. I'll expect a dusting and anything else is a bonus.

Met office tend to be most accurate one...but yes probably change a few times before the day is out ! I'm expecting 3 to 5cm imby...even though some of the graphs show up to 10.....I'll probably still be disappointed.....I'll share a pic if it any good

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, goosey007 said:

Met office tend to be most accurate one...but yes probably change a few times before the day is out ! I'm expecting 3 to 5cm imby...even though some of the graphs show up to 10.....I'll probably still be disappointed.....I'll share a pic if it any good

BBC forecast looks very good, snow arrives 5am and then keeps going and pivots during the day. It doesn't even reach that far north to be honest.

[bradymk]

Cardiff isnt a great look on the MetOffice automated forecasts but as you say Jay, don’t take too much notice of these yet as they’ll change throughout today.
 

Definitely marginal though right on the coast, as to be expected. 

[goosey007]

5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

BBC forecast looks very good, snow arrives 5am and then keeps going and pivots during the day. It doesn't even reach that far north to be honest.

Will take a look....snow potential seems more exciting whilst in lockdown I will admit !

[goosey007]

5 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Cardiff isnt a great look on the MetOffice automated forecasts but as you say Jay, don’t take too much notice of these yet as they’ll change throughout today.
 

Definitely marginal though right on the coast, as to be expected. 

Wow difference of 1 degree makes hell of a difference ....but could change 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, goosey007 said:

Will take a look....snow potential seems more exciting whilst in lockdown I will admit !

I agree. It's about exciting as it gets.

[Jayfromcardiff]

13 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Cardiff isnt a great look on the MetOffice automated forecasts but as you say Jay, don’t take too much notice of these yet as they’ll change throughout today.
 

Definitely marginal though right on the coast, as to be expected. 

That's crazy. I'm only over Caerphilly mountain and it's a totally different forecast.

I wouldn't even take any notice of those forecasts. I've just checked a few places in Cardiff and they all have different forecasts.

I think an amber warning may be issued later this morning.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Jayfromcardiff

[Jackfrost]

Here's what I'm expecting:

1) Rain or sleet

2) Snow, possibly 1-2 cm but marginal

3) Snow, 2-5 cm

4) Snow, 5-10 cm, possibly a bit more

The line across North Wales is the northern extent, although realistically I think it could be quite a bit further south than this.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Jackfrost

[Fujita scale]

3 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Here's what I'm expecting:

1) Rain or sleet

2) Snow but marginal, possibly 1-2 cm

3) Snow, 2-5 cm

4) Snow, 5-10 cm, possibly a bit more

The line across North Wales is the northern extent, although realistically I think it could be quite a bit further south than this.

There is also the one you forgot - before number 1 - the front stalls completely just off Cornwall, we all wake up/stay up - and nothing happens - the front doesn't even make it! Hopefully it's your last one

JK

 

[bradymk]

8 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Here's what I'm expecting:

1) Rain or sleet

2) Snow, possibly 1-2 cm but marginal

3) Snow, 2-5 cm

4) Snow, 5-10 cm, possibly a bit more

The line across North Wales is the northern extent, although realistically I think it could be quite a bit further south than this.

Good forecast Jack If it’s further south, hopefully area 1 could see a light covering too. North Pembrokeshire I think will do ok too.

Edited January 23, 2021 by bradymk

[Jackfrost]

2 minutes ago, Fujita scale said:

There is also the one you forgot - before number 1 - the front stalls completely just off Cornwall, we all wake up/stay up - and nothing happens - the front doesn't even make it! Hopefully it's your last one

JK

 

Hah! I think I'd actually prefer that than for it to somehow bypass Wales altogether and deliver its white gold to Southeast England. Can you imagine the looks on our faces?

[Fujita scale]

3 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Hah! I think I'd actually prefer that than for it to somehow bypass Wales altogether and deliver its white gold to Southeast England. Can you imagine the looks on our faces?

I agree, I definitely would NOT want it ending up in the South East as the thread would be unbearable - not that it's much fun nowadays, in here is the place to be and let's gets something later to get the buzz in here and make them all jealous - would be nice

Nice and clean, no drama, no downgrades, just right one cue.

JK

Edited January 23, 2021 by Fujita scale

[Jackfrost]

1 minute ago, bradymk said:

Good forecast Jack If it’s further south, hopefully area 1 could see a light covering too. North Pembrokeshire I think will do ok too.

Thank you. 

I have to admit I'm not as familiar with the geography and local climates in that part of Wales as I am with those in the southeast, but this upcoming event is less marginal than most so I really wouldn't be too surprised if the only places that don't see falling snow at a minimum are those on the immediate coast in the southwest.

[PsychedelicTony]

Thin covering down to sea level on Llandudno prom. Unable to get car up the Orme as there was an intense hail downpour with big stones, left the roads an icerink. Bus attempted it and got stuck.

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by PsychedelicTony
Spelling

[in the vale]

Half decent covering here in the Vale of Clwyd. Radar shows showers generated off the coast turning to snow over land. Looks set to continue off and on for a while. Higher res GFS & ECM suggest more of the country likely to see some tomorrow.

Edited January 23, 2021 by in the vale

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Just had a quick browse through the latest high res models, looks pretty good for S/SE Wales at the moment. 

Last 3 ECM runs for Sun @ 6am: to me it seems precipitation has got less slightly but id say the higher res models should have a better grasp on the situation by now. 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[shunthebartlett92]

I fancy a good spell of snowfall for the beacons and south wales tomorrow, but obviously want a northwards shift  However, we all know well these things go further south than predicted 9 times out of 10 Gotta be thankful for the covering around here last night

[mattrout92]

Updated UKV Snow Depths - the model runs every 3 hours which is good

 

Hoping for the first snow here in the lower Ogmore Valley since 31st January 2019, which was a similar event.

 

[bradymk]

GFS is my only annoyance for coastal areas at the moment. I wouldn’t rate it ahead of Euro4 and UKV at this range but always best to have an agreement. 

It makes more of the low and it’s further north which would be good for intensity but certainly brings in more marginal conditions for southern coastal areas (IMBY Bias!)

Shall await the others!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

6 minutes ago, bradymk said:

GFS is my only annoyance for coastal areas at the moment. I wouldn’t rate it ahead of Euro4 and UKV at this range but always best to have an agreement. 

It makes more of the low and it’s further north which would be good for intensity but certainly brings in more marginal conditions for southern coastal areas (IMBY Bias!)

Shall await the others!

I agree with you there, await to see any updates from the Met Office regarding the event see if they have increased the condifence and such.

[keithlucky]

6 minutes ago, bradymk said:

GFS is my only annoyance for coastal areas at the moment. I wouldn’t rate it ahead of Euro4 and UKV at this range but always best to have an agreement. 

It makes more of the low and it’s further north which would be good for intensity but certainly brings in more marginal conditions for southern coastal areas (IMBY Bias!)

Shall await the others!

There's seems to be pretty certain now of the track of snow now(now nothing marginal even on coasts) just were the sweet spots are.Comes down to radar watching to see were the heaviest precipitation is.