Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Howie]

 Interesting 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

 Interesting 

Apart from ecm, the rest are within a nats wotsit of each other ..... not a great period for Ukmo btw 

[MJB]

6z a good improvement for sure .

0z was on the milder side from 4th / 5th 

[Eagle Eye]

GFS 00z has always been the downer 06z getting better 12z never really seems too bad or too good and 18z runs are always good so considering the 00z runs are good the rest of the runs should be good anyway I'll stop waffling. 

Canadian Low is coming through now and ready for Cold and Showery Snow to come through. 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Apart from ecm, the rest are within a nats wotsit of each other ..... not a great period for Ukmo btw 

Definitely, I remember last week when it was dragged kicking and screaming to the ecm and gfs with the amplifying pattern

[bluearmy]

Gfs is unlikely to have the pattern to our west. correct but a look at the NH evolution post T300 illustrates that we may see a quick downwelling wave as the neg AO repsonse drives the Asian vortex towards scrussia ....

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

 Interesting 

Was top model for a good part of 2019 but dropped away a bit earlier this year. It’s certainly a model I’ve always respected and check regularly. Not too fussed re the GFS op. I’ll be more worried if the number of ensemble runs increase again that remove mist blocking. Worst case scenario we still have the SSW

[Howie]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs is unlikely to have the pattern to our west. correct but a look at the NH evolution post T300 illustrates that we may see a quick downwelling wave as the neg AO repsonse drives the Asian vortex towards scrussia ....

Lovely!

[Griff]

15 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

GFS, GFS(p) and ECMWF at t216. Spot the odd one out...

My previous comments praising the GFS for being consistent recently appear to have aged like milk.

 

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Apart from ecm, the rest are within a nats wotsit of each other ..... not a great period for Ukmo btw 

I know my thoughts, but anyone care to put some 'meat on the bones' of what the ECM is showing?

Looks cold with an easterly to me. 

[PiscesStar]

46 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Now the storm has passed through and we are into the colder air stream, best not look too far ahead if it's snow you are after. IMBY snow in this setup really is going to be a daily nowcast situation starting from today, dry, sunny, rain, hail, sleet, snow, some people by the end of the week will probably do ok and some won't. No point even stressing about day 5 at the minute as it'll just be bad for your health.

I live in the North West but it's flat and by the coast, I'd be happy to just see some falling snow this week but if not no drama.

Latest 24 to 48hr fax for people to have a gander at.

Latest warning for snow.

Oh God. South East not even in with a shout... Wtf. 

[Kasim Awan]

Any high res update from the UKV? Tracking west down the Welsh borders now.

[Kasim Awan]

14 minutes ago, Howie said:

 Interesting 

The tick up at the end is due to the gfs calling the first northerly right. I expect this to tick down now as ecm/gem have better handling of the new year period.

[feb1991blizzard]

Forget other charts - chart of the day!

[Tim Bland]

Some runs like Arpege have almost nothing for anyone now. Can’t remember such uncertainty at under 24hrs. May as well just watch the radar

[Notty]

Liking the GFS 06z ensembles - 

Wetterzentrale.de - Diagrams

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

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Forecasted 850 hPa Temp. from GFS, 06Z

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I don't think this upcoming cold spell was ever forecast to be a wham bam thank you man affair?

More like a slow burning friendship come relationship rather than a one night stand?! 

Looking at the ensembles and clusters of the various model suites this looks like a slow burner cold spell with slowly descending temperatures and a slowly increasing likelihood of snow for our shores?

Blocking has the potential to set up in the Greenland locale in the coming weeks and if it does I can only see the air becoming colder and colder over the UK.

In the meantime we are just receiving our starters which means cold and snow for some but nothing widespread in terms of snow or bitterly cold temperatures.

Let's just enjoy the ride and chill out.  Heck some people will already be able to start lamp post watching tonight!  ??

 

[SLEETY]

lol can we see the updated verification stats gfs will be at the bottom of the charts now lol

[sheikhy]

The ecm mean is a ridiculous upgrade and now looks like the ecm mean!!could be some reaally happy cold weather lovers later!!

[Matt H]

FWIW the GEFS 06z mean is a vast improvement out to the t216 mark compared to the 00z with a mean easterly compared to a south-westerly. Adds some more support for the ECM evolution as well.

[ScottSnow]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs is unlikely to have the pattern to our west. correct but a look at the NH evolution post T300 illustrates that we may see a quick downwelling wave as the neg AO repsonse drives the Asian vortex towards scrussia ....

My thoughts are similar to that outcome.

We need to see movement westwards of the very cold air over East Siberia/Russia so we have sufficient cold to tap in to.

[bobbydog]

Whilst everyone is worrying about the next few days giving us a few snowflakes, (though I for one would love to see it..) we should be looking (wishing) for a cold pool to spill into Europe. 

 

Has anyone seen what's going on 'upstairs'?.....

 

Now that... is a rare thing of beauty... 

[booferking]

Huge upgrade on gefs. 

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Some runs like Arpege have almost nothing for anyone now. Can’t remember such uncertainty at under 24hrs. May as well just watch the radar

The eastwards track is looking less likely now.

[The Beast From The East]

23 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

only good thing about this run is that much colder uppers are invading Europe,good news for when the SSW happens..

Genuine question, I understand a little about SSW and the affects it could have to increase our cold chances but I think it was last January or the year before the BBC and on here were saying how it looked like The end of jan and through Feb it looked like being record cold and snowy yet here in kent we ended up with a record warm February and I seem to remember the temperture hitting a crazy 20+ on a few days..  What could have made it all go so wrong and could it happen this time around.. Thanks.. ?

[Snipper]

Weather alert just in via Dark Sky