Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Please remember all rules apply to everyone, including the one about staying on topic. You might think it's ok to sneak an off-topic post in there but that can soon result in a cascade of off-topic replies and people looking for model information can't find it. Such posts will be removed.

Thanks!

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Scott, time for bed.

The air is coming from the North, the Irish sea is East of me.

Ive just realised where you are now ive looked at your profile. 

But whether it feels windy or not winds will still be too high higher up.

You need to slackness of the flow.

You can see no slackness in the flow on this chart lots of isobars.

People will get snow tonight 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes, not quite the same, your right, we had much lower temperatures then, a much colder pool, lower ground temps, indeed Boxing Day was an ice day and the 27th. More the synoptics are very similiar and timings, a trough feature moved in from the NW later on 27th and then into NW England, N Wales and NW Midlands overnight. It gave 5 inches here. Now I'm not saying we will see anything near as much as then, and with temps much more marginal, it could be a much higher ground event, but the potential is there for something resembling 27 Dec 2000. Shoot me down if this time tomorrow we are staring at a wet grey scene rather than white!

I mentioned the same thing the other day!!!the way the low comes down tonight it reminds me of 27th december 2000!!what a beautiful snowfall that was as well!

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Ive just realised where you are now ive looked at your profile. 

But whether it feels windy or not winds will still be too high higher up.

You need to slackness of the flow.

You can see no slackness in the flow on this chart lots of isobars.

People will get snow tonight 

I agree, some will get snow tonight.

It just wont be widespread. 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I agree, some will get snow tonight.

It just wont be widespread. 

It will be similar to the euro4 model at a guess. A blend of that and the met warnings. Enough for the first reasonable fall of the season and a keep a fair few happy. Anyway on to the 12z for me

[Bradley in Kent]

Good morning all and Merry Christmas! Hope the storm yesterday didn't cause too much damage for you. Thoughts also to those who were flooded.

With regards to the current outputs, It seems to me we're entering a high risk high reward scenario.

The Atlantic is livening up but where will that energy go? If it goes down towards the Med then we're on to a winner, but it could easily (and probably will) end up with us and all back to square one.

In addition to this, we're looking at a potential SSW, which as we know can do massive favours for cold weather fans but equally scupper any chance of cold. 

We could see lows streaming into the Med with major blocking above aided by SSW, or we could have lows hitting us with a displaced vortex over Canada.

I'm still new to interpreting models so this next week will be a good learning opportunity even if it does end in major disappointment.

All the best!

[sheikhy]

Icon better at 120 hours!!more of a wedge going north and trough digging further south southwest of greenland!!!

[SLEETY]

Why has gfs fallen off the cliff in its performance.It was the first to pick up this cold spell with rock steady ensemble support,but since then its performance has been woeful,not even worth looking at it.Its an awful failure now and the ensembles are all over the place.

Its credibility rating which had improved is now rock bottom lol.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Why has gfs fallen off the cliff in its performance.It was the first to pick up this cold spell with rock steady ensemble support,but since then its performance has been woeful,not even worth looking at it.Its an awful failure now and the ensembles are all over the place.

Its credibility rating which had improved is now rock bottom lol.

We don’t yet know if the GFS is wrong until the charts verify (or not).

Discount any output at your peril.

[Methuselah]

One thing I did notice about the 0Z, was that it 'tries' to get -30C Uppers into Siberia... Just where we want them be, during runup to an SSW?

Edited December 27, 2020 by General Cluster

[tight isobar]

Wales for a pasting (Monday feature) via 6z although we know things will still wiggle and ebb...

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

We don’t yet know if the GFS is wrong until the charts verify (or not).

Discount any output at your peril.

Well the ensembles would suggest its on its own ,plus other models look completely different,so very unlikely, what  with its performance so erractic every run.

Just looking at that run it looks very suspect.

[swfc]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It will be similar to the euro4 model at a guess. A blend of that and the met warnings. Enough for the first reasonable fall of the season and a keep a fair few happy. Anyway on to the 12z for me

Good idea skip the 6z pal and rest

[Anthony Burden]

Huge difference in ECM and GFS this morning,met office going naturally with ECM and high pressure 

strongly in charge giving cold north easterly winds.GFS swinging erratically to a roaring Atlantic 

will be interesting if they follow that theme on the 06z .In the mean time regarding reliable time

frame cold with snow in places.

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Wales for a pasting (Monday feature) via 6z although we know things will still wiggle and ebb...

Considering what was showing last night I expect many will be disappointed if this was the outcome. Even us desperate snow loving brits can’t call 2cm a pasting surely

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Considering what was showing last night I expect many will be disappointed if this was the outcome. Even us desperate snow loving brits can’t call 2cm a pasting surely

. Again the precipitation charts imo are fruitless atm.. these lps,s nearly alway invigorate ... a few surprises @NO DOUBT...

Edited December 27, 2020 by tight isobar

[Eagle Eye]

Patience we know that these Charts aren't definitly going to happen. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Sheldon Cooper
Wrong word(oops)

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

It can be - you should read *some* of the posts in the last 30 pages or so.

Morning @mulzy any news on the EPS you post on occasion..

[Valleyboy]

29 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Why has gfs fallen off the cliff in its performance.It was the first to pick up this cold spell with rock steady ensemble support,but since then its performance has been woeful,not even worth looking at it.Its an awful failure now and the ensembles are all over the place.

Its credibility rating which had improved is now rock bottom lol.

How do you know it’s wrong.  You assumed it was correct when it picked up the cold spell!

[IDO]

Even at this stage we can see that the gfs is not going the gem route, that gem outcome seems quite unlikely:

gem at d5>gfs.

The high entering from the west and cut-off low modelled differently. gfs not dissimilar so far from the 0z. The crux is at d7 when that ex-US high retrogresses rather than cojoining with the Atlantic ridge so enabling the trough to drop too far west...

[mulzy]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Morning @mulzy any news on the EPS you post on occasion..

The mean is broadly similar to last two suites - extremely high heights south western part of Greenland and then high heights to our north.  The high heights anomaly to the east less intense in the outer reaches which is good news as this results in a general cooling over much of Europe compared to recent times.  The low heights anomaly to our south is less intense though.  Overall, a very decent set.

[sheikhy]

Better 06z at 138 hours!!

[Drifter]

Thinnest wedge ever at 144hrs!

[sheikhy]

Gfs you make me laugh!!look at the difference at 150 hours!!

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Better 06z at 138 hours!!

A baby step towards the ECM.. 

You can see the system south west of Greenland is 5mb weaker on this run compared to the 00z, expect further weakening on the 12z