Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[KTtom]

ECM for next weekend does look bitterly cold, some wintriness around especially for the eastern side of the country...

 

[Scott Ingham]

So i think we can safely rule out that GFS run as a rogue run.

Fairly typical to throw out the odd bad one and especiallly when it comed down to split energy bias of throwing too much energy over the top

[Battleground Snow]

ECM 216, where is that high heading!

For new members / inexperienced model watchers, always look at the EPS from the ECM first, especially while the models are throwing out different solutions from run to run

 

[Weathizard]

The GFS is farcical, as usual when it’s toying with Icelandic height rises, expect more flops and flips than a salmon out of water.

ECM fairly solid, models best taken with a pinch of salt both ways as the differences run to run early on are utterly laughable.

[ScottSnow]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Youll struggle tonight but tomorrow night into tuesday you have a chance

Depends what model you look at. My location is Newcastle so maybe I should say far north of England.

We had snow on Xmas Eve and Day so I have already done better than most will from this spell of weather IMO.

The GFS Op is on its own this morning in the medium term but how many times have we seen that it picks up something and the others follow.

 

[Scott Ingham]

Remember the 5th of January.

Remember it being due to reamplify after a cold holding patter due to an EAMT on the 31st of December?

Well heres your first sign.

Ecm on the money with this solution.

It matches the background signals unlike the rubbish the GFS threw out!

 

[mulzy]

ECMWF a very good run.  The broad scale pattern is excellent and well within the envelope of the EPS.  It does get a bit messy with various shortwaves appearing in the outer reaches which will be impossible to resolve at that range.  No point losing sleep over that!

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, Snow White said:

Depends what model you look at. My location is Newcastle so maybe I should say far north of England.

We had snow on Xmas Eve and Day so I have already done better than most will from this spell of weather IMO.

The GFS Op is on its own this morning in the medium term but how many times have we seen that it picks up something and the others follow.

 

Its too windy the air isnt slack enough so it will mix out already very low uppers.

Its the slackness of the pattern that gives snow the following night.

The GFS has about 5% chance of verifying it doesnt fit with any meteorological commen sense.

AAM back on the rise dictates the pattern cant be that flat by them dates.

The ECM at 216 makes sense when you look at the state of play in the atmosphere and the huge blocking high well see over the himalayas on the 31st

Also monday night into tuesday will see some places get 2-4 cms. Of which the met already have a weather warning out for. I think your under playing this spell a little but i hope you get some snow tonight its what we all crave!

Edited December 27, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[SMU]

Morning -

UKMO / ECM / EPS all in good agreement- Nice & cold, with a theme of getting to the 'very cold' stage <3c maxima.

Snowy surprises to come as well. Starting with Monday.

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning -

UKMO / ECM / EPS all in good agreement- Nice & cold, with a theme of getting to the 'very cold' stage <3c maxima.

Snowy surprises to come as well. Starting with Monday.

It really is looking excellent Steve!

Where do you see the snow line monday night?

[Scott Ingham]

Euro 4 picking up om some beefy showers monday night pushing inland.

May give s cm or 2 to the lucky few!

[SMU]

Somewhere M4 > Fleet somewhere like that out to East of Bristol. Up to Stoke > birmingham > Northants 

somewhere in that triangle +100M

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Somewhere M4 > Fleet somewhere like that out to East of Bristol. Up to Stoke > birmingham > Northants 

somewhere in that triangle +100M

A midlands affair then.

I agree with you i wish i was wrong but i feel the snow has now trended further south again this morning

[Scott Ingham]

Settling snow chart showing these accumalations in south yorkshire and derbyshire from the showers pushed inland.

This is only possible however because it has the original band of snow a lot further west south west before it heads south east

[winterof79]

Only looked at // and wowzers

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Only looked at // and wowzers

I really rate this model mate as well.

Its a big upgrade on the normal GFS which unless were talking about greenland or mid atlantic highs is pants and deserves it position as 4th best verifying model

Edited December 27, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[swfc]

13 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Yes mate you have a good point...firstly I just want to Thank You for the good deeds you did over Xmas,regarding food distribution to the homeless..thats a fantastic thing to do and kind of brings home how lucky most of us are...there are far worse things in life to deal with..but give yourself a big pat on the back mate.

Secondly things may have gone off the boil a little with GFS the last few runs...but hey ho its GFS,and its great for spotting these pattern changes before others...running with it..then dropping the idea when the Euros come onboard...We have a cold snap starting tomorrow,so it kind of shocks me that some could say they give in with it now...at least give it a chance to start The ECM will be running shortly,and if that's as positive as this mornings run,and the ens and mean to boot...then I'm Happy with that and I'm sure most will be..Thus Winter is only just starting out in its journey...And I'm pretty happy about were we are at this precise moment in time..

Enjoy the rest of your Xmas...likewise to all on here..

Thanks For Your Kind Words MAT morning. very slack 7 days coming up imo with cool/cold air stagnating over the UK. showers and surprise areas of low pressure with a wintry mix in places. ec oz shows the fluidity and slight uncertainty going into fi along with the other models. I don't see anything in the reliable showing anything of note "altho compared to recent years that's not difficult" but still. Catacols musings to me do carry weight lookinh  at the nhp which is toying with Heighths ete. I've not checked the 10hpa at strat level, any zonal wind info but I guess a SSW is still a decent shot. What I would say is going threw January could be the best chance of something more akin to a sustained locked in cold spell. PV wise things are primed and the window of opportunity needs or hope its taken. All will be revealed in a much welcomed for me new year.

[Battleground Snow]

ECM mean at 240,

Looks very cold, low heights in the right place in France and the vortex pushed over Asia and the Pacific

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful EC mean...

 

[northwestsnow]

How often in winters past have we seen the complete role reversal to that chart ?

Personally I'm going to take full advantage of cold crisp frosty weather and get out for walks , its really beneficial esp in these trying times ...

[Weather-history]

Here was ECM 0z from 17th December for today

GFS 0z 

GEM 0z

 

The reality

 

[fellmike]

Sorry for being thick but why is gfs showing a sw and ecm showing a ne wind in ten days time or am i reading it wrong?

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, fellmike said:

Sorry for being thick but why is gfs showing a sw and ecm showing a ne wind in ten days time or am i reading it wrong?

I've highlighted the important bit. At that range there are nearly always differences between runs on the same model, nevermind between models. 

[dragan]

Latest gfs shows as of the 4th Jan a new pattern with South Westerly winds taking over until the end of the run.

Not overly mild, but the South West and South coast would see temps nudging into double figures.

Further North, the temps fall away as you would imagine 

[fellmike]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

I've highlighted the important bit. At that range there are nearly always differences between runs on the same model, nevermind between models. 

But which model i liable to be correct or is it guess work?