Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[snowking]

I think it’s safe to say, with what will be happening across multiple layers of the atmosphere over the next 10 days, from slowing zonal winds and some serious heat flux aloft, to mountain torquing events and a subsequent very meridional/displaced jet stream and wave breaking, models will be all over the place day to day, run to run.

This is exactly the sort of scenario that ensemble runs were made for, so stick to your ensemble means for anything beyond a few days for now and the experience will be significantly less stressful for all - if anything changes on the ensemble means, @mulzy, @bluearmy and numerous others will soon let you know.

For anything shorter term, with a cold cyclonic flow over the next week or so, don’t look for anything beyond about 48 hours away and stick to the higher resolution runs (and whatever you do, don’t get sucked in to any of the GEM fantasy runs!).

Chaos will rule whilst models which are used to significantly more westerly momentum than we are likely to see for some time try to figure out where and how much to amplify the long wave pattern. So expect to see some wild swings if it’s the operational runs you are following on their own.

[PolarWarsaw]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, getting the feeling we're starting to see a general flattening of the pattern upstream now being advertised. 

Hoping we can pull that SSW out of the bag as it will be needed as we progress further into January

I'm glad to see you have that same view point. 

Like it or not, the last 2/3 days have seen a gradual watering down of amplification later into FI - whether it's 'flat' in the usual form isn't up for debate, but IT IS FLATTER currently than what was advertised for the previous few days, which is the point people are making. Considering that wasn't Narnia anyway - less amplification is not good news, regardless of whichever positive spin we all want to put out there.

Is nobody else a little bit disappointed with what's on offer for next week? This is a pretty rare set up. The charts themselves would have delivered a very exciting spell of weather in many years gone by. But apart from the wind and a chance of some light snow/flakes Monday AM - the charts look far better than they are delivering at the surface. Really is a very frustrating set up.

A week of frost, dry and sunny weather is as much of a waste of winter as a raging Atlantic.

It feels like we have been waiting weeks for 'Christmas-new year week' and in reality, it's looking like a wasted pattern. I don't fancy another Day 10 chase into January, or relying on an SSW to not only happen, but then land in our favour - we just don't get that lucky.

Let's hope we get one as it could be a long couple of months otherwise IMO, especially with patience so frayed. With the set up and over-hyping for what are, average charts are the surface - it feels like this season has been long already! Mentally it feels like winter has been great on the internet, but the story outside is very  different. 

Here are to upgrades - Merry Christmas all. 

Edited December 26, 2020 by PolarWarsaw

[Geordiesnow]

38 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM looks like another classic, it’s rolled out a few recently, here T162:

Charts which brings uppers of - 5 are NOT classic charts, seen polar NW'lies being more potent. 

The charts really do flatter to deceive, I think some people see winds from the North, Atlantic ridge aand think its snow ameggeddon, the fact the - 10 uppers are no where near to be seen tells me this is no classic spell of weather, I mean its winter after all. 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Geordiesnow

[Methuselah]

Bring on the NUKE!

    

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Whats left of the vortex showing over europe?

Yeah ill take it! Hahaha!

Yes,i commented on this last night i think,about that lobe over Europe,that would be a favorable position if that was the outcome for a noreaster.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

As i stated gfs parallel is the one on the money. I said i think its splitting too much energy north but it did nail heaights over Greenland so an objective way of thinking is needed.

I never said we will end up flat and warmer i just said i dont think heights will be what they were 4 days ago shown.

 

Yup. Gfs op is on it's own sending that amount of energy north. Upshot of a more southerly jet is a more pronounced easterly.

As mentioned before more pronounced closed circulation to our east is favoured as gfs is overcooking the toppling

[Uncertainty]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The GFS parallel is looking very good for cold and snow at T192:

I think this is about the best of what’s on offer at the moment.  But GFS // also very consistent re the strat warming, here T228, and very similar to the 6z:

As I mentioned in the strat thread, one of the major enhancements of the new parallel GFS is in the vertical resolution, so this could be good news, because that looks a favourable split (caveat that this only shows temperature). 

Such differences in the strat at such a short lead time Mike! Old GFS not interested even though  the para splits consistently around day 9. Either a) The extra resolution has allowed it to ‘see’ the enhanced warming and subsequent split or b) It’s rubbish.

It has however also been consistent, along with the GEM, with a wedge of heights forming over Scandi following on from the initial amplification in the Atlantic.

 

Leading to an easterly a day or two later

 

Though the GEM goes all In tonight with a conduit of heights linking up to a monster Siberian high. Stunning.

 

The EPS mean also has a broad region of higher heights North of the UK

 

Fair play to the GFS for consistently spotting Bella and the Atlantic ridging but right now it seems up to its usual tricks of being unable to resolve split energy nearer to the UK.

If the Para verifies (in both atmospheric levels) we really ought to be giving it just as much, if not more credence than it’s incumbent older brother.
 

[dragan]

Happy with outputs so far from today, it looks like a cool down period followed by eventually a wetter slightly milder era.

Certainly NO ‘classic cold spell’  unfortunately.

However, the charts could revert to a colder output, conversely, they could also bring in milder conditions too.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Charts which brings uppers of - 5 are NOT classic charts, seen polar NW'lies being more potent. 

The charts really do flatter to deceive, I think some people see winds from the North, Atlantic ridge aand think its snow ameggeddon, the fact the - 10 uppers are no where near to be seen tells me this is no classic spell of weather, I mean its winter after all. 

Uppers of -10C are not on offer, they never have been.  There is not enough cold air in our vicinity yet.  But you don’t need -10C uppers to get snow in the right setup.  As I have said before, often the heaviest snowfall is in more marginal conditions.  So yes, you are right, there is no nationwide snow event due, but I can only remember one of them anyway and it was in 2010.  

Yes, it is winter after all - usual fayre rain and wind.  A lot more than that on the menu at the moment, so I’ll stick by my post, thanks.

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,i commented on this last night i think,about that lobe over Europe,that would be a favorable position if that was the outcome for a noreaster.

Without a doubt! 

That being said these temperatures dont reflect the geo potential heights on the ground.

Not my area the strat however.

Im sure chio catacol bluearmy lorenzo might be the best judges

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yup. Gfs op is on it's own sending that amount of energy north. Upshot of a more southerly jet is a more pronounced easterly.

As mentioned before more pronounced closed circulation to our east is favoured as gfs is overcooking the toppling

Yeah and its nearly always last to the party to get this split flow right!

I do think its right on picking up a SLIGHTLY flatter pattern in the Greenland locale however.

 

[Tim Bland]

Pray for the GEM

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Without a doubt! 

That being said these temperatures dont reflect the geo potential heights on the ground.

Not my area the strat however.

Im sure chio catacol bluearmy lorenzo might be the best judges

Yes quite right,i am no strat geek and i am sure they  will tare me to bits ha! ha!

like @Uncertainy says though and i also stated that the parra has been more consistent than it's brother or sister which ever way.

[Alexis]

12 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Charts which brings uppers of - 5 are NOT classic charts, seen polar NW'lies being more potent. 

The charts really do flatter to deceive, I think some people see winds from the North, Atlantic ridge aand think its snow ameggeddon, the fact the - 10 uppers are no where near to be seen tells me this is no classic spell of weather, I mean its winter after all. 

-10C gives you powder snow which is no good for snowmen! 
 

These charts are perfect for unforecasted little troughs popping up and creating surprise localised snowfalls.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Yes quite right,i am no strat geek and i am sure they  will tare me to bits ha! ha!

like @Uncertainy says though and i also stated that the parra has been more consistent than it's brother or sister which ever way.

Yeah i agree i think its run is bang on the money.

Its an upgraded model so logic should suggest it doing a better job anyway!

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Indeed it does 

The Met office has some of the most advanced models in the world

They could very well be onto something here 

What models would they be ???

[Daniel*]

There’s more than a sniff of heights to our northeast the GEFS mean is improvement to 06z.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Daniel*

[SLEETY]

Some members be digging themselves out of the snow if the GEM verifies heheh

 

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Uppers of -10C are not on offer, they never have been.  There is not enough cold air in our vicinity yet.  But you don’t need -10C uppers to get snow in the right setup.  As I have said before, often the heaviest snowfall is in more marginal conditions.  So yes, you are right, there is no nationwide snow event due, but I can only remember one of them anyway and it was in 2010.  

Yes, it is winter after all - usual fayre rain and wind.  A lot more than that on the menu at the moment, so I’ll stick by my post, thanks.

So they are not classic charts, synotopics wise, you may argue they are but come on, we seen alot better charts than these in the past.

I'm seeing a set up which brings the risk of transient snowfall and for lower levels, it gets less favourable after Monday as the thicknesses start to rise and so do the uppers marginally. I think frost will be more of a dominating weather type than snowfall I feel looking ahead. The charts cold wise are poor for end of Dec start of Jan given the set up on offer. 

And yep in winter we get polar maritime set ups fromm the Atlantic which brings - 8 uppers into North Western areas and snowfall in lower levels also, do you count them as a classic set up? 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah and its nearly always last to the party to get this split flow right!

I do think its right on picking up a SLIGHTLY flatter pattern in the Greenland locale however.

 

A slightly flatter pattern at that locale probably wont mean a very significant difference in surface conditions at UK if anything it may push everything south of where the GEM.00Z had things which is a positive. In either case the energy is more likely to undergo trough disruption than topple.

13th Jan 2013 is a good analogue for the pattern in discussion because the Greenland polar jet became increasingly immobilized under high pressure leading to cold. 

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, snowking said:

For anything shorter term, with a cold cyclonic flow over the next week or so, don’t look for anything beyond about 48 hours away and stick to the higher resolution runs (and whatever you do, don’t get sucked in to any of the GEM fantasy runs!).

GEM and GFS // look pretty similar, I’d wait for the ECM to come out before dismissing the evolution?

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Pray for the GEM

Nice to see all the country covered virtually though from an IMBY I much preferred its 0z run there was much more around the Southern half of the country

[Beanz]

9 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Is nobody else a little bit disappointed with what's on offer for next week? Apart from the wind and a chance of some light snow/flakes Monday AM - the charts look far better than they are delivering. A week of frost, dry and sunny weather is as much of a waste of winter as a raging Atlantic.

No, and quite honestly I’d take frost, cold, dry and sunny a hundred times over raging Atlantic at this time of year.

The flattening is a disappointment I’ll agree, but quite honestly I think those with slightly wiser heads on their shoulders have known that we’re not heading into anything more than a cold spell right through the last couple of weeks of model watching.  I’m surprised how those with more expertise often still wear rose tinted glasses, because it’s quite clear there’s not been any snow on the charts of note at all in my opinion. 

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to bait a reaction and I of all people would LOVE a huge dumping of snow across the U.K. and cold set in for weeks.  But, I guess I’m just a realist, and I’m still happy with what the models are showing, which is coldish with occasional snizzle in odd pockets of the country from time to time.  

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Some members be digging themselves out of the snow if the GEM verifies heheh

 

Not sure the GEM has ever verified at that range - but nice charts to look at.

[sebastiaan1973]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Not sure the GEM has ever verified at that range - but nice charts to look at.

The temperatures don't seem to be correct at GEM.