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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Euro4 goes west this time!!!mainly because it elongates the low a bit more as well!!this will not be resolved until literally just before the event!!!nowcast written all over it!!

    The GFS is always too far out with the precipitation relative to the low centre at this range. Clearly evident for the 2019 event. Forecast is way too north. So whilst I agree about nowcasting, I also think probabilities can be appointed to the various solutions. Additionally I think we will see further tigthening around a solution by tomorrow's 6z.

    gfs-2-6 (1).png

    gfs-2-54 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    3 hours ago, Spah1 said:

    Euro 4 usually very stingy with snow predictions, now seems too keen. 

    Let's hope it's actually right lol, would be amazing to get some snow, out of this nasty wind, although thank goodness it's night time, as it would be an actual blizzard, which is something we don't generally get here in the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    36 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    The hi res appear somewhat tighter in their resolvement of Monday's snow.

    The ARPEGE & others produce a more easterly track further north across N Eng before swaying the precip more S of SE. The upshot is that a line from Liverpool to Bristol sees falling snow with the potential for >10cm as hinted at by the Arpege's pivotting before less of a push south east. This before more of a wintry mix on the south coast later as the precip looses it's cold by the time it heads south.

    This solution is currently favoured with some sway both W/E possible e.g. refined to Welsh Borders or West Wales & as far N.E. as Leicester...

    A middleground again speculated here by the HIRLAM however this could be a false sense of security - with a more W/E outcome possible.

    The GFS is well north which seems unrealistic. So Welsh borders, Far west Mids & perhaps W Country atm favoured. 

    Hi Kasim, can you post the charts showing 10cm + I’m just not seeing it anywhere 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 hours ago, Beanz said:

    Flight data points have increased hugely in the last year or so, they will still decrease over this period but accuracy is much better now than it was and the effect is less pronounced. 

    Also shortly after the start of the pandemic ECM stated they’d managed to fill the majority of the gaps following the lack of flight data so reduced seasonal air travel now should really have almost no impact on model accuracy/output.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thundersnow
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset

    No posts in the last 55mins!! All ok I trust??? Or am I having issues my end???

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

    The Arpege solution has 200mm of falling snow - unlikely to produce less than 10cm

    arpegeuk-45-65-0 (1).png

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen such divergence  in ppn location/snowfall location between the models run to run. Each one is markedly different to the other! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
    3 minutes ago, Ashme said:

    No posts in the last 55mins!! All ok I trust??? Or am I having issues my end???

    Boxing day lunch maybe. To get back on topic here is current fax chart showing the squeezing of the isobars and the source of the incoming colder air.

    46D27D5C-91ED-47E5-8DAA-88AC577A54E9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen such divergence  in ppn location/snowfall location between the models run to run. Each one is markedly different to the other! 

    I would suggest it’s because of the way it pivots.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    didnt the chinese seasonal model go for a blocked and easterly January,could well be corre

    http://forecast.bcccsm.ncc-cma.net/web/index.php?pred_start_date=2020-12-01&pred_elem=GH500&pred_region=GL&submit=M01&ChannelID=65#pred_seasonal

    Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (ncc-cma.net)

     

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    didnt the chinese seasonal model go for a blocked and easterly January,could well be correct.

    Cant seem to find it online though?

    Yep as did the JMA

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Overanalysing every run looking for whether precipitation has moved 10 miles is a quick route to insanity!

    It will chop and change right up to the final few hours. Go and have a drink and forget it for a while!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Overanalysing every run looking for whether precipitation has moved 10 miles is a quick route to insanity!

    It will chop and change right up to the final few hours. Go and have a drink and forget it for a while!

     

    Absolutely right. I know why we all do it, but we only pay attention to minute changes in the short term modelling of precipitation when snow is involved. Think about how rain at any other time is often different to what is forecast when we don’t pay attention to it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    Got a feeling somewhere will get a suprise big dump of snow this week, due to a trough or some other feature popping up at short notice that the models haven't picked up on.

    Wouldn't be surprised if many of us wake up to at least a few dustings of snow when we open the curtains during the week ahead.

    Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but with such a complex system over us, surprises are bound to occur imo.

    Edited by NewEra21
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Got a feeling somewhere will get a suprise big dump of snow this week, due to a trough or some other feature popping up at short notice that the models haven't picked up on.

    Wouldn't be surprised if many of us wake up to at least a few dustings of snow when we open the curtains during the week ahead.

    Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but with such a complex system over us, surprises are bound to occur imo.

    @Kasim Awan will definitely, would love to live there

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Got a feeling somewhere will get a suprise big dump of snow this week, due to a trough or some other feature popping up at short notice that the models haven't picked up on.

    Wouldn't be surprised if many of us wake up to at least a few dustings of snow when we open the curtains during the week ahead.

    Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but with such a complex system over us, surprises are the bound to occur imo.

    This is my mindset too - consider any snow as a surprise next week. Far less likely to be disappointed then. I’m hopeful that no matter what happens next week, it will be a precursor of a more sustained cold spell afterwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    MetO red warning out... expect low-flying teddies, dollies, Stickle bricks, toy soldiers, and random bits of Duplo, anytime from tomorrow evening. Moderate to heavy accumulations are expected, in most-favoured areas!:drunk-emoji:

    PS: I is bored, waiting for the 12Z!!!😱

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    This is my mindset too - consider any snow as a surprise next week. Far less likely to be disappointed then. I’m hopeful that no matter what happens next week, it will be a precursor of a more sustained cold spell afterwards.

    time to erect the snow dome me thinks. So much talk about snow from the GFS Euro4 and ECM

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Runs have been showing Scattered Snow for most of the next few Weeks how would we read that off Models and what seperates

    this

    gensnh-1-1-78.thumb.png.75cee34c7226ac26ecbb8835669ef9f8.pnggens-0-3-78.thumb.png.e62627ec15b6d67e38309284df194a83.png

    From this

    archivesnh-2019-12-15-0-0.thumb.png.b7dc09d563ccc2a2378aa5c8fbf3ce69.pngarchives-2019-12-15-0-5.thumb.png.1b5941d0290245143b59bf854f59472e.png

    In the first one you see the Jet Stream is showing the air coming down from the Arctic called an Upper and will bring Polar Air Along With it. 

    In the 2nd one you can see the Jet Stream bringing Air from the Atlantic this Air is bringing mild unstable air(Low's don't have to be Cold more bring Rain and are unstable) this is called a Returning Polar Maritime Air parcel. The 2nd Low will bring Unstable Air and more Connectiveness in this you can have Thunders now when this Mild Air Goes Below 0oc. 

    How do you Interpret These charts. 

    Such as the 2st one an Arctic Northernly will bring Cold Air and Polar Air Parcels which will most likely bring below 0oc Air In Winter and Snow which will be Wider And Longer lasting. It is important to note that we can get Air from Scandanavia called a Beast From The East which isn't garuanteed but will most likely bring Showery Snow 2018 was an Example Of this. A high in Winter coming up from Europe US Called An Azores High and brings Tropical Maritime Air Which Is Humid And Mild And This Will Bring 10oc And Above Most likely. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, General Cluster said:

    MetO red warning out... expect low-flying teddies, dollies, Stickle bricks, toy soldiers, and random bits of Duplo, anytime from tomorrow evening. Moderate to heavy accumulations are expected, in most-favoured areas!:drunk-emoji:

    Aye, mine when high ground gets it all, always been a believer of elevation makes snow more likely

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    Posted
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, preferably thunderstorms, cold and bad weather.
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.
    37 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    MetO red warning out... expect low-flying teddies, dollies, Stickle bricks, toy soldiers, and random bits of Duplo, anytime from tomorrow evening. Moderate to heavy accumulations are expected, in most-favoured areas!:drunk-emoji:

    PS: I is bored, waiting for the 12Z!!!😱

    Where's the red warning? I can see an orange one for wind in the south, but only yellows otherwise.

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