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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Certainly looks a dryer run from ECM and GFS away from the east coast, what is stark is how many attempts the Atlantic ridge makes at getting into Greenland, ECM day 9 shows it smacking into a concrete wall and flattening! The biggest stumbling block IMO to getting something more notable is shifting that lobe of vortex from Greenland. Still, looking at least 10 days of cold frosty conditions once the storm clears which is not to be sniffed at.  

     

    ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

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    Greetings all 🎄 A new thread for the festive period. Other thread started to slow down a bit. With Christmas here, a lot of us weather-wise become flooded with excitement at the prospect of

    It was the night before Christmas and the strat was beginning to stir,   While the cold was incoming where is Steve Murr?   Will it or won’t it , a split or displacement,  

    Morning all. Look what the lovely weather did... Snaw on xmas eve, looking forward to another great day here in the thread. Feels like Christmas 🎄 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    27 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

     

    Seems on the 6z gfs and ec the fun and games ie serious blocking are all in deep fi. 240 ec is a bit flatter than gfs but given the swings all very much subject to change. 

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    The ever-present threat of high pressure rebuilding is becoming more clear in the GFS ensembles and now apparent in the ECM operational. As it's the form horse it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility.

    358758501_Screenshot2020-12-26at06_37_32.thumb.png.29a214882aa0ca66de1e1c8cea8b5ffd.png

    216848533_Screenshot2020-12-26at07_02_57.thumb.png.5dbd37c2404b023ff0798fa23db2b7ba.png

     

    This might be reverse psychology for my self-protection but at the moment I remain of the view that we are likely to see several days of colder conditions with perhaps a little snow to low levels for some fortunate people. Nothing substantial or seismic before settled conditions prevail ahead of the next Atlantic reload. It will make the first half of January cold.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    what is stark is how many attempts the Atlantic ridge makes at getting into Greenland, 

     

     

     

    As a matter of interest, can this ever happen? I'm pretty sure we debated this once and the hp cell over Greenland is always distinct from the one in mid-Atlantic. They never truly join? Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm sure that's been stated on here even by Murr.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks

    Having lurked for a while, watching some of our erstwhile members chew lumps of each other I just want to remind everyone of the old adage “ get the cold in first!”

    We look to be entering a cold/ very cold phase and I’m pretty sure the temps will drop lower than modelled and snow will pop up at the last minute almost anywhere... we’re entering the most exciting period of winter weather for some time, strap yourself in!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
    11 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    The ever-present threat of high pressure rebuilding is becoming more clear in the GFS ensembles and now apparent in the ECM operational. As it's the form horse it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility.

    358758501_Screenshot2020-12-26at06_37_32.thumb.png.29a214882aa0ca66de1e1c8cea8b5ffd.png

    216848533_Screenshot2020-12-26at07_02_57.thumb.png.5dbd37c2404b023ff0798fa23db2b7ba.png

     

    This might be reverse psychology for my self-protection but at the moment I remain of the view that we are likely to see several days of colder conditions with perhaps a little snow to low levels for some fortunate people. Nothing substantial or seismic before settled conditions prevail ahead of the next Atlantic reload. It will make the first half of January cold.

     

     

    That low might go SE and become a slider? I don't think it is a problem 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    11 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    The ever-present threat of high pressure rebuilding is becoming more clear in the GFS ensembles and now apparent in the ECM operational. As it's the form horse it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility.

    358758501_Screenshot2020-12-26at06_37_32.thumb.png.29a214882aa0ca66de1e1c8cea8b5ffd.png

    216848533_Screenshot2020-12-26at07_02_57.thumb.png.5dbd37c2404b023ff0798fa23db2b7ba.png

     

    This might be reverse psychology for my self-protection but at the moment I remain of the view that we are likely to see several days of colder conditions with perhaps a little snow to low levels for some fortunate people. Nothing substantial or seismic before settled conditions prevail ahead of the next Atlantic reload. It will make the first half of January cold.

     

     

    Where is the next Atlantic reload? Or are you talking about NW/SE flow? If so that would make January cold. 

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    4FEFFD3C-4D42-4B3C-8798-C2E948989961.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Still a lot of uncertainty over track of a secondary low swinging in from the northwest across the west and south on Monday, most models take it south across northern France, but UKV / UKMO fax take it across southern England with some snow.

    PPVJ89.thumb.gif.3ff73d312739255b88a98cce656ec02a.gif

     

    viewimage-40.thumb.png.1ca733a3c58ff3ca7469f17e358fae27.png

    Agree with others that rest of the timeframes of this mornings runs look dry though away from coastal areas. Though I suspect models will pick up on troughs or fronts that are hard to model too far out that may bring some wintry ppn inland. 

     

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Mid-longer term.. honestly chill the &@“&& out.. the plots will ALWAYS do the talking.. here are the gefs ones.. and the rest sitvin the same cold/blocked bed..   a notable spell .. coming up 👊👊👊. @500 geos 

    E96B1AAD-6E48-43C4-853D-EED68A5BD544.png

    4C4D5E6E-8C36-4FA2-BEF9-DA963A07E69F.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    The ECM mean is far better than the op to my surprise with a cold easterly out to day 10.👍

    883A5832-2201-4827-9926-E752D47FC960.thumb.png.3fd4f19784442a19fa827167e3f7dbc5.png72965B79-7965-4CC8-8CA0-24C1984F0720.thumb.png.5ce82442127e7ab07cc2d9f4fa41c8d7.pngD3BB9FFC-BFAF-4243-B164-09C7CE641502.thumb.png.de0a53d4e2b14b6feddd46fb99eaff80.pngE8031C94-EA2F-4C8A-91EA-668B8F6B2B73.thumb.png.e5337e64a32d8a61f25e511c518c9570.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

    My one bit of advice to readers this morning is to take a look at the chart for yourself first, before reading the negative comments on here. 
     

    Strange comment. Cant see any negative comments, just people discussing their point of view and interperating the output how they see it...thought that was what this thread was about?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

    The ECM mean is far better than the op to my surprise with a cold easterly out to day 10.👍

    883A5832-2201-4827-9926-E752D47FC960.thumb.png.3fd4f19784442a19fa827167e3f7dbc5.png72965B79-7965-4CC8-8CA0-24C1984F0720.thumb.png.5ce82442127e7ab07cc2d9f4fa41c8d7.pngD3BB9FFC-BFAF-4243-B164-09C7CE641502.thumb.png.de0a53d4e2b14b6feddd46fb99eaff80.pngE8031C94-EA2F-4C8A-91EA-668B8F6B2B73.thumb.png.e5337e64a32d8a61f25e511c518c9570.png

    Was just about to post the mean, that’s a very good one with the whole U.K. under -5/6c uppers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Was just about to post the mean, that’s a very good one with the whole U.K. under -5/6c uppers.

    Indeed, it also adds some credibility to the easterly being shown on the GFS parallel run around the day 10 mark as well.😊

    850F6D92-D248-4CA9-8EE4-7AEE15A1E1E1.png

    D6144B65-EA22-4671-A994-9F0C0157C4C2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    27 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Mid-longer term.. honestly chill the &@“&& out.. the plots will ALWAYS do the talking.. here are the gefs ones.. and the rest sitvin the same cold/blocked bed..   a notable spell .. coming up 👊👊👊. @500 geos 

    E96B1AAD-6E48-43C4-853D-EED68A5BD544.png

    4C4D5E6E-8C36-4FA2-BEF9-DA963A07E69F.png

     

    3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    The ECM mean is far better than the op to my surprise with a cold easterly out to day 10.👍

    883A5832-2201-4827-9926-E752D47FC960.thumb.png.3fd4f19784442a19fa827167e3f7dbc5.png72965B79-7965-4CC8-8CA0-24C1984F0720.thumb.png.5ce82442127e7ab07cc2d9f4fa41c8d7.pngD3BB9FFC-BFAF-4243-B164-09C7CE641502.thumb.png.de0a53d4e2b14b6feddd46fb99eaff80.pngE8031C94-EA2F-4C8A-91EA-668B8F6B2B73.thumb.png.e5337e64a32d8a61f25e511c518c9570.png

    💯 Agreed. 

    Going to be an exhausting day let alone weekend or even week, getting hung up on each run. 

    Solely on yesterday's output, bigger picture is follow the means. 

    Thou shalt not take an op run as a weather forecast in FI... Or even for Monday coming by the sounds of things. 

    👍

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Just a thought but anyone investing in charts struggling with Greenland heights in FI might want to show equal consideration to the suggestion of possible scandi heights as an evaluation. I'm not saying either will or won't happen, only quite a few options being shown on this morning's output. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Why has no one mentioned euro4?it looks way further north and east with its snow and looks more like ukmo!!its even further east than last nights 18z!!!oh and ecm looks darn good this morning!!the mean looks a belter again!!

    Edited by sheikhy
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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    Great ensemble mean this morning from ECM 0z. It continues to look very cold in the medium term

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    It remains fluid with post-d7 as it was yesterday. No real clues in the gefs and despite the clusters we saw on the ecm I doubt they are conclusive. It is clear this morning's ecm has now gone completely away from its GH scenario and is in line with the main gefs cluster and yesterday's gfs ops. So a delay to the next low pressure system from the NW enable HP to creep east and maybe ridge into the UK (transient topple).

    ecm run: anim_gsq3.gif gfs d8+: anim_grz8.gif

    The gfs from yesterday suggested a repeating pattern but messier with every rise and fall. The ecm mean is not very useful atm due to the options not likely to have a middle ground.

    The gfs 0z op falls within another cluster, about 14%; less of a delay in the d7-10 period of the feed into the trough and some WAA as it drops big giving an upstream Greenland wedge. A similar amount of ens give us an Iceland wedge. The main cluster remains the continuation of the NW>SE flow, but less distinct.

    Same thoughts as yesterday, we are in a below-average cooler flow, nothing too cold or snowy for most. The NH profile is simply not looking interested in a sustained colder upper flow; the Russian high spoiler preventing any chance of a long fetch easterly or a sustained NE'ly, so scraps off the cut-off lows as they drag cold pools on the jet from N/NW?

    london ens>graphe9_10000_311.1477355957031_147.4989

    Better than this time last year!

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