Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is still may favoured synoptic for that period. Admittedly it doesnt have much support at all! 

Don't tell anyone but, I agree with you. 

A resurgence in blocking around Greenland is supported as we go into January by the teleconnective signals.

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Don't tell anyone but, I agree with you. 

A resurgence in blocking around Greenland is supported as we go into January by the teleconnective signals.

Hahaha! Shhhhh!

Yeah it is and the other factor is the displacement event in the strat should be starting to stop the block getting too far west by then id imagine.

Ill get you these links across soon mate.

Im busy sorting a lot for Christmas 

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Don't tell anyone but, I agree with you. 

A resurgence in blocking around Greenland is supported as we go into January by the teleconnective signals.

You’ve just told us!

ECM rolling, will be looking for the placement of the low centre at about T96 first.

Edit and it is just out and looks favourable as per UKMO:

Edited December 24, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Catacol]

8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

If I had a title book for winter 2020 it would be 

Eat Sleep Amplification Repeat 

Major +EAMT at New Year will set off yet another big one given the lack of trop vortex coherence, and SSW looks to be around end of week 1 January. Might be a slight relaxation for a few days before that momentum surge hits, and then we get another major blocking regime setup that I’m not sure will go away for a good while if the SSW plays ball. Everything is good for the next 10 days with our existing setup....but then the key to intensification into something of historical note will be the shape of that SSW - and to get a grip on that we will need patience. Some disagreement about what may happen out there on various online comms...but nothing yet to make me bin my reading of a split driven from the Atlantic side. We will see - but a huge amount of wintry potential is around the corner before we even get to see whether that key opens the Siberian lock...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

seems like snow for SE only sadly! may be wrong mind you

[Mike Poole]

Just to unpack the ECM T96 a bit, here’s the UK view and T850s too.

There’s most of the country with sub -4C uppers and with northerly or northeasterly winds around the NW flank of the low.  And the isobars are spaced too so less wind means more evaporative cooling in any precipitation that falls, some areas could get significant snow in just 4 days time.

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Just to unpack the ECM T96 a bit, here’s the UK view and T850s too.

There’s most of the country with sub -4C uppers and with northerly or northeasterly winds around the NW flank of the low.  And the isobars are spaced too so less wind means more evaporative cooling in any precipitation that falls, some areas could get significant snow in just 4 days time.

Fully expect even western areas to do well from that...especially those with height 

from myself, have a fab Christmas folks. Let’s hope Santa delivers an upgrade overnight! 

[XtremeUKWeather]

My eyes have been blessed 

[Mucka]

Less scatter in GFS ensembles for extending the cold as far out as they can see.

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Major +EAMT at New Year will set off yet another big one given the lack of trop vortex coherence, and SSW looks to be around end of week 1 January. Might be a slight relaxation for a few days before that momentum surge hits, and then we get another major blocking regime setup that I’m not sure will go away for a good while if the SSW plays ball. Everything is good for the next 10 days with our existing setup....but then the key to intensification into something of historical note will be the shape of that SSW - and to get a grip on that we will need patience. Some disagreement about what may happen out there on various online comms...but nothing yet to make me bin my reading of a split driven from the Atlantic side. We will see - but a huge amount of wintry potential is around the corner before we even get to see whether that key opens the Siberian lock...

The pressures seen over Mongolia and surrounding areas are nothing short of bizaare! I firmly believe the summer heat and wilfires near Siberia have driven these high pressure domes which have handed us a wild card of momentum to out perform the seasonal models. No solid evidence to support this but its something im currenlty heavily researching. Look at 2010 youll see the same summer pattern the same issue with russian heat and wildfires. I believe if the ssw plays ball and the relaxation after the next bout of amp stands us in good stead then historic predictions for winter 2020 while still a low chance can not be ruled out 

[Griff]

Curious to hear what people make of ecm 144, possibly tiredness on my part but is it more Atlantic and less of a northerly component? 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Griff

[radiohead]

ECM has a broad area of 2-4cm of snow over the Southeast for Monday/Tuesday.

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Curious to hear what people make of ecm 144, possibly tiredness on my part but is it more more Atlantic and less of a northerly component? 

 

More to do with timing of the shortwave on W flank of the trough, ECM just delays it a little bit more than UKMO and GFS which delays the N/NE flow a fraction.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Mucka

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Curious to hear what people make of ecm 144, possibly tiredness on my part but is it more more Atlantic and less of a northerly component? 

Here is the ECM for yesterday 12z vs today 12z for direct comparison. Not too much different in all honesty.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The pressures seen over Mongolia and surrounding areas are nothing short of bizaare! I firmly believe the summer heat and wilfires near Siberia have driven these high pressure domes which have handed us a wild card of momentum to out perform the seasonal models. No solid evidence to support this but its something im currenlty heavily researching. Look at 2010 youll see the same summer pattern the same issue with russian heat and wildfires. I believe if the ssw plays ball and the relaxation after the next bout of amp stands us in good stead then historic predictions for winter 2020 while still a low chance can not be ruled out 

Aye, Scott... At least Genghis Kahn will be enjoying viewing the models tonight? Merry Xmas BTW!

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

ECM has a broad area of 2-4cm of snow over the Southeast for Monday/Tuesday.

Where did you get that from?

 

[SMU]

168 sees a fairly decent vertical ridge

https://media.tenor.com/images/75b8300205b8938a597cbb3c362cdfc3/tenor.gif

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Where did you get that from?

 

Have a look at wxcharts:

WXCHARTS

WXCHARTS.COM

---

A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots...

 

[SMU]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Where did you get that from?

 

WXMAPS

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Aye, Scott... At least Genghis Kahn will be enjoying viewing the models tonight? Merry Xmas BTW!

Hahahaha funny man!

Merry xmas mate all the best!

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Here is the ECM for yesterday 12z vs today 12z for direct comparison. Not too much different in all honesty.

I guess I'm trying to work out the significance of the absence or presence as indicated, ta

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Where did you get that from?

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

168 sees a fairly decent vertical ridge

https://media.tenor.com/images/75b8300205b8938a597cbb3c362cdfc3/tenor.gif

That answers my question

[Ice Day]

192 and another stunner

 

[Griff]

Seems less keen to go west than GFS, I think... Not sure why but looks more consistent.