Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[radiohead]

ECM snow accumulation by day 10

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, fromey said:

Probably a very silly question! But does data from the strat etc get put into the model data in some form?? 

Yes to a degree in public ops.. as are all supporting.. @upper levels/jet/theata etc

[tight isobar]

Last one until the 12z using any precipitation model now is like taking ya- uncle Pete who is profoundly blind on a sight seeing holiday!!!

[Ben Sainsbury]

15 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

If you are in the Midlands you will be hoping for this track to verify!  

28/12 04:00

 

06:00

 

09:00

 

As ever these charts are subject to change at this range. 

Great chart/model viewing though after the crud we had to endure last Winter - lovely to see a cold/chilly frosty outlook with the risk of wintry potential throughout the UK and Ireland. 
Makes for great discussion and analysis in here from everyone. 

To add to this as well, check out some of the precipitation rates modelled too! Could be some very heavy snow for a time, potentially forming into a squall judging by CAPE & DLS too!

Edited December 26, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Tim Bland]

Going to out my positive pants back on...

GFS is the absolute  worst case scenario in my opinion and is probably an outlier. However IF this were to happen then we only actually see a few days break in the cold before the next ridge gets thrown up. PV is pushed East away from Greenland and cold is coming south again. All this with the effects of the SSW yet to hit!!

[nick sussex]

A belated Merry Christmas to all . 

After a wretched 2020 let’s look forward to a much better 2021.

In terms of today’s models the UKMO looks washed out upstream . By that it seems to be continuing its poor performance with shortwave activity over there , has a lack of development of those and struggles with northern and southern jets over the USA.

In the medium term models are likely going to struggle with the changes in the strat .

But the odds favour a continuation of the more favourable set up for coldies .

With that in mind even if there’s some some flattening as the PV moves east , that should be a temporary feature as the high should retrogress nw again.

Anyway my fellow coldies in the UK please stay safe with that incoming storm.

My advice stay indoors and eat your way to happiness ! That’s what I’ve been doing during most of 2020 as my covid coping mechanism ! 

[Sweatyman]

10 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Going by the Weather Warning that's just been announced by the MetO that they think this is the path.

Just looked. warning is further north!

[swfc]

Can see rutting has started. Anyway large storm moving in and the main concern is yet more flooding, After it clears away with some transient snow wherever this thread decides its going then bright Cool/Cold. Coastal showers with frosts but mostly dry across the board. Past day 7-10 answers on a postage stamp. Enjoy your boxing day folks, whatever the weather

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, fromey said:

Probably a very silly question! But does data from the strat etc get put into the model data in some form?? 

Each model is one whole atmospheric representation from the top of the strat to the surface.  Some models have more layers in the strat than others so are theoretically better up there ...

[Catacol]

17 minutes ago, Reversal said:

Unfortunately the trend away from amplification in the Atlantic and over Greenland has been consistent for 48 hours now.

Please post a chart. Let me save you the trouble - EPS at 240. You’ll struggle to find many more amplified Atlantic patterns in the archive. A false assertion without evidence.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ohhh please   I've said so many times,please wait for the ens and means,before getting to disheartened by a dodgy op run or two. It only causes the individual to suffer unnecessary pressure, and at this time of year with all the other problems we are facing...is it really worth it!! Things are still looking good both hemispherical,and stratospheric wise.

The ECM mean again remains cold to day 10,its close on -6c,and guess what the extended remains cold also... Remember last year folks...a raging Vortex over Greenland and a giant Euro slug if I recall correctly...enjoy the rest of your Xmas.

 

[Eagle Eye]

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

To add to this as well, check out some of the precipitation rates modelled too! Could be some very heavy snow for a time, potentially forming into a squall judging by CAPE & DLS too!

Wow midlands hit there and look at that a snow squall!!how often do we see those!!throw in a bit of thunder as well!!

[tyson99]

7 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Just looked. warning is further north!

Further north as in covering which areas ?

[saintkip]

14 minutes ago, radiohead said:

ECM snow accumulation by day 10

That is pony, hopefully wrong

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Please post a chart. Let me save you the trouble - EPS at 240. You’ll struggle to find many more amplified Atlantic patterns in the archive. A false assertion without evidence.

Posted these earlier pal.. it’s like p@@@ing in the wind tho!!!... 

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, Reversal said:

Unfortunately the trend away from amplification in the Atlantic and over Greenland has been consistent for 48 hours now.

I’d say that probably depends on what you’re looking at, I think this is true for operational runs and GEFS especially we could be having a wobble finally. But with EPS it has only improved further since then which is more encouraging to me, I don’t see amplification going anywhere fast. 

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Please post a chart. Let me save you the trouble - EPS at 240. You’ll struggle to find many more amplified Atlantic patterns in the archive. A false assertion without evidence.

That's 2 days old though. Do you have this morning's? 

[fromey]

I assume that this is off old data??!!

this for Monday 

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, saintkip said:

That is pony, hopefully wrong

Can I ask why? There isn't a lot of snow forecast and where it falls is anyone's guess

[Skullzrulerz]

10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Please post a chart. Let me save you the trouble - EPS at 240. You’ll struggle to find many more amplified Atlantic patterns in the archive. A false assertion without evidence.

Check the GEFS and along other models 

Most are now trending to have less amplification

[Osca31]

Can’t see snow right on the Cumbrian coast as shown but who knows at this stage..Either way I can see that we are all in a very good position from a cold perspective as we head into the last days of 2020 and into the New Year

Edited December 26, 2020 by Osca31

[saintkip]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can I ask why? There isn't a lot of snow forecast and where it falls is anyone's guess

Because in my back garden I get nothingthe above charts are splendid though

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, fromey said:

I assume that this is off old data??!!

this for Monday 

Probably and tommorow data will have most likely changed. Local threads are a good idea I find when snow hunting plus your local forecast

[Bricriu]

24 minutes ago, Reversal said:

Unfortunately the trend away from amplification in the Atlantic and over Greenland has been consistent for 48 hours now.

 Some places are going to see snow in the next 48 hours.  A bitter north easterly is still  very much a possibility at some stage  in January.

We are in a much better position than this time last year!