Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hmmm gfs seems to be ever so slightly further north and east and moving towards euro4?

00Z was better

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

You’ll need to show something to back that up otherwise it’s a load of waffle!

Search back into the forum threads from 26 th December 2010,  it was 1 of the more experienced members that also said this, proof will be in 48 hours then come back and tell me  I’m just talking a load of waffle

[winterof79]

Let the cold spell begin... 

 

[Gael_Force]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard_of_Oz said:

The lack of manual data input into the models due to the holidays is correct, this also happened in 2010, those of us that have been on this forum may remember the same debate back then. 
Another 48 hours and I’m confident we will see a different output. 

The only issue I'm aware of is lack of flight data on a day or two over the holidays. Flight data must have been reduced/impacted all through this strange year; has it made a difference to the accuracy statistics?

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

00Z was better

Hmm i expected the 06z to look even better cos its a deeper low and further north and east!!hmm weird!!

[Griff]

BINGO 

I'm crossing off:

"weather balloons" 

"lack of data" 

"fewer aircraft" 

You can set your watch by this place at this time of year! 

(see my psychic predictions from Christmas eve). 

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Griff

[StormyLincs]

Personally I can’t see why the negativity with some posts this morning. All looks fairly much in order to me for a possibly prolonged cold spell, although nothing too severe at the moment. I’ll take this upcoming cold spell quite happily over the usual mild Atlantic muck that we’re all so used to. Happy Boxing Day. 

[Daniel*]

I suspect a large reason for differences between GFS and ECM lay within stratosphere. The ECM is very consistent and well to be honest so is GFS but you would have to back latter. With ECM it’s leading to a split and you see traction for a ridge to go near Greenland in contrast to GFS.

[V for Very Cold]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

BINGO 

I'm crossing off:

"weather balloons" 

"lack of data" 

"fewer aircraft" 

You can set your watch by this place at this time if year! 

(see my psychic predictions from Christmas eve). 

 

Surely Santa provides extra flight data? 

[johnholmes]

Saturday 26 Dec 500 mb update

Ec-gfs and some changes but not major, ridging wnw of uk with the marked trough just about over uk, gfs less marked

Noaa and it has no marked changes in the UK area, the trough w of n America is now elongated se-nw rather than more n-s, still ridging e of this on the 6-10 and also the 8-14 (perhaps less pronounced) but this is often the case on the 8-14 as it tends to smooth out and decrease the -/+ve shown on the 6-10. It ‘might’ mean the marked trough-ridging is soon to change but not clear yet.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

In the shorter term, 48-72 hours lots of interest in the track of the low along with , of course, will it snow for my back garden from a lot of you. I notice that the ECMWF run shows the -5 C over the period 1-5 Jan brings the -5 C at 850 mb to cover the whole of the country, just parts of Eire on the fringe!

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, Kevo22 said:

Personally I can’t see why the negativity with some posts this morning. All looks fairly much in order to me for a possibly prolonged cold spell, although nothing too severe at the moment. I’ll take this upcoming cold spell quite happily over the usual mild Atlantic muck that we’re all so used to. Happy Boxing Day. 

I'm happy with this mornings output, the last 2 days it looked like the charts where backing off long sustained cold/snow chances a little bit but now I get the feeling it's more likely after looking at all the output again. Gfs and ECM is certainly an improvement, UKMO not bad at all.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Harsh Climate

[Beanz]

3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The only issue I'm aware of is lack of flight data on a day or two over the holidays. Flight data must have been reduced/impacted all through this strange year; has it made a difference to the accuracy statistics?

Flight data points have increased hugely in the last year or so, they will still decrease over this period but accuracy is much better now than it was and the effect is less pronounced. 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I suspect a large reason for differences between GFS and ECM lay within stratosphere. The ECM is very consistent and well to be honest so is GFS but you would have to back latter. With ECM it’s leading to a split and you see traction for a ridge to go near Greenland in contrast to GFS.

Give that jma and gem are consistent and like the ec temp profile at day 8 then I’d be inclined to think the gfs is struggling high up for some reason ....

also, taking the 10hpa heights and imprinting them onto the trop won’t necessarily correlate ......

Edited December 26, 2020 by bluearmy

[BeazleyBlizzard]

Hope everyone had a great Christmas. I was poking my head into this forum every now and then. I think regarding that Monday low, we really have to wait and see with regards to Bella passing through. I dont think we will have too much confidence till tonight if not tomorrow mornings runs. I will be fishing 6am tomorrow morning until Monday evening in Surrey, so it'll be what touches my head is the weather. Interesting model watching for the short term  that's for sure.

[blizzard81]

35 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The EPS clusters are the best of the winter but yes lose your sanity over GFS 00z

I feel cheeky asking but could you please show us the clusters?

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I feel cheeky asking but could you please show us the clusters?

I thought it was posted? But there’s definitely a suggestion of cold continental influence over northerly, so perhaps turning very cold into early January. ECM op had this too at day 10, but seemingly too flat with ridge.

 

[Tim Bland]

06z GFs still dry for most Monday. I can only find GEM that gives enough fir a snowball away from Scottish / welsh mountains.

re he flight data ...this must have been lacking for a while with 50% of flights grounded due to Covid?

GFS looking better for end of the week precip wise with widespread showers and a covering for many...

[weirpig]

Arperge similar track to gfs  for snowfall on Monday  brum West  into Wales    off course will be probably different next run 

Edited December 26, 2020 by weirpig

[Battleground Snow]

After a period of good consistency from the GFS it looks to have reverted back to its normal state, 00z v 06z... 

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[sheikhy]

Fantastic improvement on gfs at 204 hours!!as i mentioned went off on one on the 00z!!

[SLEETY]

gfs is becming a joke again,the difference between this and 6hours ago is laughable.Its consistency and credibility with it is going down the pan again.It may look colder but how can you take any of it seriously when the differences are so HUGE

Edited December 26, 2020 by SLEETY

[winterof79]

Am I seeing a 06z siding with the favoured cluster

 

[Eagle Eye]

GEFS 00z and 06z are on the same track something must be wrong

 

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I thought it was posted? But there’s definitely a suggestion of cold continental influence over northerly, so perhaps turning very cold into early January. ECM op had this too at day 10, but seemingly too flat with ridge.

 

Many thanks Daniel. They look fab

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Better by day 7 on the GFS. Wedge of heights breaks off from the Atlantic that steers the incoming low on a more southerly track, keeping the U.K. cold.