Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Barmada_Casten]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

What the hecks happened to the gfs from 192 hours onwards!!way more atlantic influence!!big change!!and ukmo looks like it could topple at 144 hours!!

Absolutely not surprised here at all. We may have a bit of coldish weather with some snowfalls but nothing significant or major which had been drummed up in here. After this brief cold snap and am fully expecting a return to Atlantic dominated weather as per normal here in the UK as the models are hinting at.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed.

[captaincroc]

Morning all.  Strange Euro 4 charts this morning...

This model is normally really conservative with snow but this is for tonight... snow in the belt...? The uppers are only 0c, Air Temps are  7c etc...

 

Then it looks like snow from the showers all the way after the front clears...

 

This is not to drag up #UppersGate but lots of things - I thought - don't scream 100% snow...especially the chart for tonight where temps aren't even that cold.

 

Just wondered if the experts can spot something I haven't?

Edited December 26, 2020 by captaincroc

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What the hecks happened to the gfs from 192 hours onwards!!way more atlantic influence!!big change!!and ukmo looks like it could topple at 144 hours!!

Luckily we have an SSW at a similar time, ready to unleash the beast by Mid Jan

[sheikhy]

Right after taking a look at the ensembles the gfs op after 192 hours looks to have gone off on one!!last day or so gfs op dont seem to be doing that well compared to before!!ecm ensemble seems rock solid!!expect changes maybe for the better on 06z!!

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Absolutely not surprised here at all. Anyone expecting a prolonged cold snap we’re dreaming and fantasising. We may have a bit of coldish weather with some snowfalls but nothing significant or major which had been drummed up in here. After this brief cold snap and am fully expecting a return to Atlantic dominated weather as per normal here in the UK as the models are hinting at.

Agreed that there was never a prolonged cold spell modelled, so there should be no disappointment there. However, I don’t agree that a return to Atlantic domination is likely.

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Absolutely not surprised here at all. Anyone expecting a prolonged cold snap we’re dreaming and fantasising. We may have a bit of coldish weather with some snowfalls but nothing significant or major which had been drummed up in here. After this brief cold snap and am fully expecting a return to Atlantic dominated weather as per normal here in the UK as the models are hinting at.

Do you understand gage/plot-ensembles-operational-&supporting data??!!  When the north’s hemisphere is in dissatisfy as current., it’s the overlook- unraveling you need! .  Not one run sequence Serra of an order @12z18zooz .    The construct of ample blocking is by momentum.. and sync being miss-evaluated atm... as Fully expected @flux @welling@.. the ark grenny  block will no doubt relinquish as we gain.. and evolve..   as expected!!!

Edited December 26, 2020 by tight isobar

[Jeremy Shockey]

4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Morning all.  Strange Euro 4 charts this morning...

This model is normally really conservative with snow but this is for tonight... snow in the belt...? The uppers are only 0c, Air Temps are  7c etc...

 

I've noticed that Euro 4 has really gone downhill in accuracy since its "upgrade" a couple of years ago . For some reason it now overestimates snow potential whereas in the past it would underestimate it.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Agreed that there was never a prolonged cold spell modelled, so there should be no disappointment there. However, I don’t agree that a return to Atlantic domination is likely.

[Daniel*]

Probably a mark of a real cold spell when London sees maxima <2C. 

... and Manchester it’s evidently more than bog standard.

 

[tight isobar]

Ladies n gents I offer you the eps 0Oz-Atlantic domination charts . Get real abc.. .. it’s as blocked as a fat birds toilet!!..   with nigh in zilch of a mobile infer.. we are going into winter like we haven’t for what seems an age!!!! @eps ooz ..cut the comedy.. I’m be-reffed of ribs @atlantic domination.. the Atlantic is in tier 5..@ lockdown .. and I’m sure some ya should also be  (obviously banter)x

Edited December 26, 2020 by tight isobar

[winterof79]

15 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Absolutely not surprised here at all. Anyone expecting a prolonged cold snap we’re dreaming and fantasising. We may have a bit of coldish weather with some snowfalls but nothing significant or major which had been drummed up in here. After this brief cold snap and am fully expecting a return to Atlantic dominated weather as per normal here in the UK as the models are hinting at.

Never mind grammatical error. 

Meteoligical error. Where are your charts to back up your assumptions. The mean charts posted by others fly in the face of your "forecast". 

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Absolutely not surprised here at all. Anyone expecting a prolonged cold snap we’re dreaming and fantasising. We may have a bit of coldish weather with some snowfalls but nothing significant or major which had been drummed up in here. After this brief cold snap and am fully expecting a return to Atlantic dominated weather as per normal here in the UK as the models are hinting at.

Can’t beat a cold snap which the latest output and professionals suggest will last a month. 

[winterof79]

11 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

I've noticed that Euro 4 has really gone downhill in accuracy since its "upgrade" a couple of years ago . For some reason it now overestimates snow potential whereas in the past it would underestimate it.

To be fair the chart shows snow at higher elevations but I agree its gone down hill. 

[Spah1]

Euro 4 usually very stingy with snow predictions, now seems too keen. 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

To be fair the chart shows snow at higher elevations but I agree its gone down hill. 

It also looked wayy better a couple of years ago!!shocking upgrade!!

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

It also looked wayy better a couple of years ago!!shocking upgrade!!

Do the Beeb still use them? As their graphics for snow have gone verticus at the same time. 

[Daniel*]

Just now, Spah1 said:

Euro 4 usually very stingy with snow predictions, now seems too keen. 

The euro4 has gone a bit strange in recent years no idea why, but it is still one of the best don’t focus too much on precip types is my advice, try to check parameters to see if it fits. It’s very good at placing where PPN is. The more organised heavy showers seen in NE on Christmas Eve which gave some accumulative snowfall even to lower ground, this model did best with them. Most models have a dry ‘bias’ I wouldn’t worry about dry looking charts, low ish MSLP and there’s bound to be something most days next week.

[BarometerCat]

22 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Absolutely not surprised here at all. Anyone expecting a prolonged cold snap we’re dreaming and fantasising. We may have a bit of coldish weather with some snowfalls but nothing significant or major which had been drummed up in here. After this brief cold snap and am fully expecting a return to Atlantic dominated weather as per normal here in the UK as the models are hinting at.

GFS ensembles suggest some increasing pressures and a generally colder trend. Not deep cold though, at the moment. A promising trend still going out to more or less reliable.  Loads to be resolved yet...

I wouldn’t dismiss discussion as fantasising just yet, apart from those looking at a month of mild Atlantic driven weather.

[Weather-history]

26 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Absolutely not surprised here at all. Anyone expecting a prolonged cold snap we’re dreaming and fantasising. We may have a bit of coldish weather with some snowfalls but nothing significant or major which had been drummed up in here. After this brief cold snap and am fully expecting a return to Atlantic dominated weather as per normal here in the UK as the models are hinting at.

I take it you didn't see my ECM Manchester 2m temperatures ensemble post?   This model doesn't really suport what you are saying. Any case here it is.

[Penrith Snow]

15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ladies n gents I offer you the eps 09z Atlantic domination charts . Get real abc.. .. it’s as blocked as a fat birds toilet!!..   with nigh in zilch of a mobile infer.. we are going into winter like we haven’t for what seems an age!!!! @eps ooz ..cut the comedy.. I’m berefed of ribs @atlantic domination.. the Atlantic is in tier 5..@ lockdown .. and I’m sure some ya should also be  (obviously banter)x

'Blocked as a fat birds toilet' that gave me a real laugh, but watch out for the PC police knocking your door down later  

I am looking at the potential for snow showers tomorrow in the cold westerly winds in sub 528dam air, good chance I reckon but will need some height.

The drybut cold outlook is reflected in the MetO MRF but like others have said thoughs will develop within the low pressure systems although we could have done witg lower uppers to generate convection 

Andy

Edited December 26, 2020 by Penrith Snow

[DanDorsetUK]

Got to laugh at the ridiculous comments again here this morning. Absolutely nothings changed. The charts that were showing had no likelihood of being correct just as much as the less amplified ones are! Think people seem to be forgetting there is an SSW on the cards which will completly change the pattern anyway. The favourable outcome is for the warm to be pushed back with cold conditions with snow chances possible all inline with the Met Office update.

Anyone saying it's going to be Antlantic dominated weather seriously need to chill out and look at the bigger picture. There is more likelyhood of that not happening, let alone the fact this is the 0z run on the back of Xmas day where I wouldn't be surprised of less manual data being added into the models for the last 2 days.

I'm very confident were in for a significant cold spell just beginning.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

'Blocked as a fat birds toilet' that gave me a real laugh, but watch out for the PC police knocking your door down later  

I am looking at the potential for snow showers tomorrow in the cold westerly winds in sub 528dam air, good chance I reckon but will need some height.

The drybut cold outlook is reflected in the MetO MRF but like others have said thoughs will develop within the low pressure systems although we could have done witg lower uppers to generate convection 

Andy

Pop up features in the flow.. it’s one if very few pluses for our maritime island.. but when it pluses.. it’s mathematically great @sometimes

[tight isobar]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Pop up features in the flow.. it’s one if very few pluses for our maritime island.. but when it pluses.. it’s mathematically great @sometimes

Ps .. we need to keep feeding her cheeseburgers.. and Netflix

[swfc]

14 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

How do you unfollow or block please 

Go on your account its on there so a bit of lull in the gfs ie amplification but ec looks the most robust obv it only runs to ten days. Lots of change to come for better or worse run to run but all rather interesting on the nhp. Where it will end, anyone's guess

[chicken soup]

1 hour ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Having lurked for a while, watching some of our erstwhile members chew lumps of each other I just want to remind everyone of the old adage “ get the cold in first!”

We look to be entering a cold/ very cold phase and I’m pretty sure the temps will drop lower than modelled and snow will pop up at the last minute almost anywhere... we’re entering the most exciting period of winter weather for some time, strap yourself in!!!

Yes but that old adage is a myth. In fact it's total bunkem.. I've lost count of the cold spells here. That never produce snow.