Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Frigid]

Morning everyone and a Merry Christmas!! I've been lurking around here for quite some time now, and have to say a lot of you are quite knowledgeable and its been a pleasure to read over the month. 

Coldest Christmas Day since 2010 in my area, -4c min and not going above 3 all day. Thanks to this synoptic. And looks interesting in the week to come 

 

[sheikhy]

Looks like that threat of west based nao is slowly diminishing?!!!

[Frosty.]

Oh my, so many options too choose..I think I will go with the model output discussion!..anyway, enough waffle already, anyone, strike that, I mean any coldie who is unhappy with this from the mighty 6z....well, he or she isn’t a coldie!..nuff said, and merry crimbo..again.

 

 

[Griff]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

Oh my, so many options too choose..I think I will go with the model output discussion!..anyway, enough waffle already, anyone, strike that, I mean any coldie who is unhappy with this from the mighty 6z....well, he or she isn’t a coldie!..nuff said, and merry crimbo..again.

 

 

But what's your dew point and is your bulb wet enough

Cracking, thanks! 

No issues with the trends for me thanks Jesus. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but the steeper the lapse rates the better and further inland the showers will propagate, you would be very unlikely to get heavy snowfall in Frankley with -6c, sure it might be all snow because of the Altitude but the colder the 850-500mb profile, the better, a strongish wind also preferable to drive the showers, inland, you don't want anything more than gale force though as that can kill convection, certainly don't want storm force or hurricane force.

@markw2680 Just for clarity i was referring to cheshire gap streamers only, of course you could get heavy snow there from a different setup like a battleground, its not out the question you could get heavy snow with -1c uppers there from a 96 feb style setup.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Looks like that threat of west based nao is slowly diminishing?!!!

Is that because the ridge isn’t gaining as much traction on gfs now and as it becomes more mid Atlantic, the west based issue relaxes .......... the eps clusters show it’s still there but I agree the trend is a little away although could easily swing back somewhat given the extended eps placement of the greeny anomoly  

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

But what's your dew point and is your bulb wet enough

Cracking, thanks! 

No issues with the trends for me thanks Jesus. 

Hey Griff, merry crimbo, if I had any likes to give, you would get one..but I don’t..that goes for anyone of the amazing posts on here..I have nothing too give..anyway..merry crimbo too one and all.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is that because the ridge isn’t gaining as much traction on gfs now and as it becomes more mid Atlantic, the west based issue relaxes .......... the eps clusters show it’s still there but I agree the trend is a little away although could easily swing back somewhat given the extended eps placement of the greeny anomoly  

Im thinkking the exact same thing as you blue!!but what we dont want is the ridge to gain any less traction cos we might end up with a boring high over the uk!!!!

[ICE COLD]

1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm a bit concerned with two things

One is the downgrade on the Greenland and two is the PV starting to set up shop 

Not exactly the great start to the day 

Have you done an all nighter on the sauce ? . Absolutely none of the output has the  pv starting to set up shop . It’s as you were a very good outlook , and the best at the end of December for many years . 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is that because the ridge isn’t gaining as much traction on gfs now and as it becomes more mid Atlantic, the west based issue relaxes .......... the eps clusters show it’s still there but I agree the trend is a little away although could easily swing back somewhat given the extended eps placement of the greeny anomoly  

GEFS collapsing the Atlantic ridge more and more with every run.

[bluearmy]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Im thinkking the exact same thing as you blue!!but what we dont want is the ridge to gain any less traction cos we might end up with a boring high over the uk!!!!

can’t discount it I’m afraid ......although I can’t see it getting this far to the east as a mean feature 

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is that because the ridge isn’t gaining as much traction on gfs now and as it becomes more mid Atlantic, the west based issue relaxes .......... the eps clusters show it’s still there but I agree the trend is a little away although could easily swing back somewhat given the extended eps placement of the greeny anomoly  

I'd say so yes,its really quite marked just how much the GFS has shifted away from the Greenland hig idea and moved towards a more typical mid atlantic ridge and PV lobe over the top type pattern. 

The GFS op on the 00z and 06z also  does far less with any upper high in the arctic as well, where as the ECM develops a pretty decent sized upper high.

I suppose as ever, the truth probably lies between the two, though the 06z GFS has shifted a little away from its 00z offering where it doesn't even attempt to ridge. It also is definitely a less risky pattern than the ECM, though also perhaps less of a reward as well.

Either way though BA, the pattern looks cold for some time to come. first half of Jan looks like coming in decently below average at the moment.

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by kold weather

[mushymanrob]

48 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

People looking at Charts on this site will look for a 2010 because that's how we base our Snow Year's on now.

 

 Hmmm... not so sure on that, being old enough to have lived through the grest snowy withers of 69/70, 78/9, 81/2, 84/5, 86/7, 90/91, etc...lol.. i was very ill in 62/3 so missed that.

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

 Hmmm... not so sure on that, being old enough to have lived through the grest snowy withers of 69/70, 78/9, 81/2, 84/5, 86/7, 90/91, etc...lol.. i was very ill in 62/3 so missed that.

I was 3 in 2010 so uh Yeah

[Biggin]

19 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'm about to post a Christmas cracker on the tweet thread that will 100 cause a stir here.... 

Where is the tweet thread then Griff ?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Hey Griff, merry crimbo, if I had any likes to give, you would get one..but I don’t..that goes for anyone of the amazing posts on here..I have nothing too give..anyway..merry crimbo too one and all.

Come on Karl spread the Love...Where are all our Xmas likes....we've worked hard for em

Quick look at the early 6z ens shows plenty of cold options still on the table.. This is far from a normal set up...Even those earlier Exeter updates from the other week of milder and more unsettled early January,have been put right back now..i get the impression most of next month will be plagued by wintry objects...

Have a great one all,and go easy on the sherry...we need some sound minds for the 12z runs...not Oliver Reed expressions..

Edited December 25, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[Ventnor Viking]

Merry Christmas everyone and a very happy Friday for those who dont celebrate. 

The models still provide many possibilities for cold conditions, which I think the coldest will come from the east still in January. 

I don't do IMBY, but if I did, the southern tip of the Isle of Wight will get 0 cm of snow with the current set up. However, I am looking forward to seeing others reveling in the white stuff! 

 

 

[Howie]

I feel like this is a typical GFS wobble, remember how it picked up on the strat warming then dropped it just as the ECM picked it up. It then moved back towards it's original solution a day or so later 

[Eagle Eye]

Now that's what I call Snaw. 

 

[PiscesStar]

9 minutes ago, Ventnor Viking said:

Merry Christmas everyone and a very happy Friday for those who dont celebrate. 

The models still provide many possibilities for cold conditions, which I think the coldest will come from the east still in January. 

I don't do IMBY, but if I did, the southern tip of the Isle of Wight will get 0 cm of snow with the current set up. However, I am looking forward to seeing others reveling in the white stuff! 

 

 

Just sucks on an island this small how it makes such a ridiculous difference 

[SLEETY]

GFs always faffes around in fl,best not to take much notice of it after 192 hours,unless its shows minus 20 uppers invading from the NE,because they always verify of course..

 

[minus 9]

 Merry Christmas all,been on the forum since 2010. Don't post but love reading all the posts. And toys flying out of the pram. Just got a feeling this next few weeks will be very interesting. Cheers all

[Frigid]

Wonderful to see the support of the GFS ensembles on the 6Z for some cold conditions. We could be on the cusp of a lengthy cold spell, maybe longest since 2018. Let's hope that SSW takes place in January 

[Eagle Eye]

-8oc 850 pa incredibly seemingly lowest for the South in the Winter so far from what I remember. 

[Blessed Weather]

47 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Where is the tweet thread then Griff ?

Here it is. It's potential good news about the SSW being triggered: