Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Wait a few frames ....ec re amplifies days 9/10 ....... if this gfs op doesn’t then perhaps it’s in transition and we need to wait for the next two runs to see what it’s thinking on the pattern 

Looks like a reload type pattern, though we'll be lucky this time to get a vortex lobe quite as impressive as the one coming down. = probably a more typical wintry fare for this type of pattern. Also looks a little too far west for my taste but then I'm never much of a fan of HP formation in that part of the basin, I't too cautious!

EDIT - then again its colder on the front end this time so that may make up for the less impressive upper cold pool.

Edited December 25, 2020 by kold weather

[Daniel*]

Similar idea to ECM.

[sheikhy]

Yup looks like the gfs trying to come round to the ecm outcome!!aint gona complain about that!

[Paul_1978]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm a bit concerned with two things

One is the downgrade on the Greenland and two is the PV starting to set up shop 

Not exactly the great start to the day 

I’ve looked at the NH view on several models going out to 240h and no way is the PV starting to set up shop, so are you able to provide a chart showing this?

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Similar idea to ECM.

Couldn't ask for more at this range. 

And FYI up to here still some possible surprises falling from the sky. 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Griff

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Similar idea to ECM.

More of an atlantic ridge rather than a Greenland high on the GFS, however the general trend is somewhat similar to the ECM at least!

Its much better than the 00z GFS thats for sure and whilst its likely to topple, a fair chance we stay in a cold pattern this run.

Would probably be some decent falls on higher ground on this run, possibly some leading edge stuff lower down as that LP comes down on the 06z run.

Edited December 25, 2020 by kold weather

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm a bit concerned with two things

One is the downgrade on the Greenland and two is the PV starting to set up shop 

Not exactly the great start to the day 

Don’t be concerned.. it’ll rattle n roll.. @typical of this set up.. but everything looks primmed-tbh

Edited December 25, 2020 by tight isobar

[lassie23]

Hope everyone enjoys the mass sleet potential of the next 8 days and happy winterval everyone or has it gone back to being called Christmas?

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm a bit concerned with two things

One is the downgrade on the Greenland and two is the PV starting to set up shop 

Not exactly the great start to the day 

 

[swfc]

Merry Xmas. Looking at the outlook today I suspect flooding may be the big story going forward. Cool/cold weather with the odd bit of wintry weather but for some folk not a great outlook ie rain totals

[Griff]

Yeap winters over / cancelled, terrible zonal weather, worst possible charts for January... Definitely don't look east....  

[kold weather]

GFS stuck in a holding pattern on the 06z run, with the 264hrs looking nearly identical to the 144hrs chart in terms of placement of features. 

At some point it will break on this run, and until that point we remain in a broadly cold pattern, though any LP that dives down like the 06z GFS is going to be mainly cold rain outside of high ground and perhaps leading edge stuff.

We do keep getting a lobe of the vortex in probably the worst possible of locations that prevents any attempts at legitimate height rises near Greenland, but at the same time it prevents us from escaping the broadly colder pattern.

So overall the 06z is a marked step down from the potential pattern that was present yesterday, though its still on the cold side and as long as that remains the case we could well see a shift up in the pattern.

Of course, remains a realistic chance the 06z has gone off the deep end with the placement of the vortex and may well back away from it again in a few days, neither solution would be that surprising. 

The 06z is certainly not a throw in the bin type run, its still sets a decent groundwork.

Edited December 25, 2020 by kold weather

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Yeap winters over / cancelled, terrible zonal weather, worst possible charts for January... Definitely don't look east....  

Don't think that's the case but it looks very wet in places ie flooding. Again fi looks good, let's hope it comes off and we see something very wintry. Merry xmas

[kold weather]

Also one final thing about the 06z GFS.

It may not look much of a looker, but make no doubts about it is a cold set-up. Pretty much everyday from the 27th onwards has frost for most of the country under slack cool LP and daytime maxes don't look going much beyond 4-5c. Would probably give a CET for the period somewhere between 1.5-3c, which by recent standards is pretty cold.

Its setting a good groundwork in its own right and helping to cool down the ground and the SSTs around our shores which will help later in the season in any further marginal events (which I'm getting a sneaky feeling there will be based on how common this pattern of diving LP's has been thus far).

[Eagle Eye]

People looking at Charts on this site will look for a 2010 because that's how we base our Snow Year's on now. However it is unlikely to happen now because since then the Climate has grown approximately 0.5oc Warmer, not only that but everything has to sit right up. 

First of all Cold air flowed from Scandanavia and a Warm Jet Stream from Africa pushed up the Alpine like Cold. As the double Jet Stream brought it to the South and the North therefore you actually could have had a North and South split meaning that the Midlands might not have had much Snow. As seen in this Photo. 

This double Jet Stream was Weak enough in the South that the High didn't Just come Straight Up and Push the Cold Air away. Meanwhile in the North a 2nd Jet Stream which was Weak was going in the Opposite direction meaning it acted the Same Way on The Closest Jet Stream and Pushed the Cold Air down further and would continue that Until The Weaker One broke. 

This meant that you had a Cold which was going to stay there for a While Surrounded by a Flimsy low. Which meant that if the Jet Stream changed in the Cold's favour we could have an Arctic Northernly. 

Many people look for - 6oc in these charts however whilst Charts like these you do want - 6oc remember that this was one of the coldest winters. All that you need is - 4oc and a deep Purple or Pink chart. 

As you can see - 4oc can still be good as 2023 brought Snow to Southern Regions even though it wasn't - 6oc

The Jet Stream suddenly filled meaning that we Got the Arctic Northernly coming from that Low to the North of Greenland and that meant more Snow for many Weeks considering the Strong Connected Jet Stream Bringing Cold Air To The south. Whilst because of the strong jet stream the North got Cold Air that had just swung by Iceland first. 

If we are to summarise the above Paragraphs and Apply them To This Year's then we find, that at the moment with that Northernly Jet Stream Colder air is rushing down and bring colet parcels of air attached to them. 

With the Jet Stream rushing Just South of us it's bringing the Arctic Air with it and no kopposing air so it would most likely stay Cold for a while but not enough like 2010 and will most likely stray away from us. 

However if we find an opposing Siberian Jet Stream or European Jet Stream later then we could have a Ridge working in our favour and a Month like December 2010 In January 2020 and so we will be looking at further Charts to see if we can get a good Ridge. 

This is an amazing Jet Stream as it means an almost still Snow Storm which will bring lot's Of Deep Snow. 

I hope people find this helpful and have a Merry Christmas

Xander

[Snowing offshore]

Merry Christmas to everyone. Have watched this forum for maybe 15 years but my met knowledge not up to posting. I want to thank you all for the information, analysis and banter. Hope this evolving situation delivers something for all of us over next few weeks. Thanks again and please keep up the entertainment

[Howie]

3 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

People looking at Charts on this site will look for a 2010 because that's how we base our Snow Year's on now. However it is unlikely to happen now because since then the Climate has grown approximately 0.5oc Warmer, not only that but everything has to sit right up. 

First of all Cold air flowed from Scandanavia and a Warm Jet Stream from Africa pushed up the Alpine like Cold. As the double Jet Stream brought it to the South and the North therefore you actually could have had a North and South split meaning that the Midlands might not have had much Snow. As seen in this Photo. 

This double Jet Stream was Weak enough in the South that the High didn't Just come Straight Up and Push the Cold Air away. Meanwhile in the North a 2nd Jet Stream which was Weak was going in the Opposite direction meaning it acted the Same Way on The Closest Jet Stream and Pushed the Cold Air down further and would continue that Until The Weaker One broke. 

This meant that you had a Cold which was going to stay there for a While Surrounded by a Flimsy low. Which meant that if the Jet Stream changed in the Cold's favour we could have an Arctic Northernly. 

Many people look for - 6oc in these charts however whilst Charts like these you do want - 6oc remember that this was one of the coldest winters. All that you need is - 4oc and a deep Purple or Pink chart. 

As you can see - 4oc can still be good as 2023 brought Snow to Southern Regions even though it wasn't - 6oc

The Jet Stream suddenly filled meaning that we Got the Arctic Northernly coming from that Low to the North of Greenland and that meant more Snow for many Weeks considering the Strong Connected Jet Stream Bringing Cold Air To The south. Whilst because of the strong jet stream the North got Cold Air that had just swung by Iceland first. 

If we are to summarise the above Paragraphs and Apply them To This Year's then we find, that at the moment with that Northernly Jet Stream Colder air is rushing down and bring colet parcels of air attached to them. 

With the Jet Stream rushing Just South of us it's bringing the Arctic Air with it and no kopposing air so it would most likely stay Cold for a while but not enough like 2010 and will most likely stray away from us. 

However if we find an opposing Siberian Jet Stream or European Jet Stream later then we could have a Ridge working in our favour and a Month like December 2010 In January 2020 and so we will be looking at further Charts to see if we can get a good Ridge. 

This is an amazing Jet Stream as it means an almost still Snow Storm which will bring lot's Of Deep Snow. 

I hope people find this helpful and have a Merry Christmas

Xander

That streak of jet stream north of Scandinavia is going from east to west . Interesting 

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

People looking at Charts on this site will look for a 2010 because that's how we base our Snow Year's on now. However it is unlikely to happen now because since then the Climate has grown approximately 0.5oc Warmer, not only that but everything has to sit right up. 

I hope people find this helpful and have a Merry Christmas

Xander

Merry Christmas!

As someone who has been on here since 2004 there was quite some time where many of us believed a winter month like Dec 2010 wasn't possible anymore  back in the late 2000s due to climate change. We hadn't had a single month below 3c CET for about 12 years, a heck of a run of above average months as well. Then we had winter of 09/10 which proved we could go cold still, and then Dec 10 proved all of us doubters back then very wrong. 

The fact we got the 2nd coldest ever December in 400 years of record keeping shows that under exceptional circumstances we can still get severely cold, al lit means is the set-up just has to be that bit more perfect. Our climate hasn't warmed that drastically that we can't go extremely cold still, though of course each passing year makes any extreme cold harder to get of course.

However I agree this isn't 2010 for sure, and whilst the set-uo is promising in many ways, that contained a truly exceptional cold month for a very good reason, because it wasn't an exceptional pattern. I'm not yet seeing anything exceptional on the models, though the fact its even a remote and realistic possibility shows how much better position we are in this winter.

EDIT - the 00s (indeed since 1997!) didn't have a single month below 3C in the CET. The 10s have seen 5 (Jan,Feb,Dec 10, Mar 13 and Feb 18). Just to give you an idea how bleak the 00s were for sustained cold!

Edited December 25, 2020 by kold weather

[winterof79]

Not a bad set of shorts for pennines. 

 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Not a bad set of shorts for pennines. 

 

Wow very tight clustering there 

[Methuselah]

Looks, to me, as if the cold air has absolutely nowhere to go; it's stuck between the Russian and Atlantic HP systems... So cold/rather cold, and quite unsettled for the foreseeable? No robust signals for either a return to mild mush or a BFTE?

    

Wait and see what the SSW does...?

Edited December 25, 2020 by General Cluster

[Griff]

I'm about to post a Christmas cracker on the tweet thread that will 100 cause a stir here.... 

EDIT: And here's the link to the post.

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Link added

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Looks, to me, as if the cold air as absolutely nowhere to go; it's stuck between the Russian and Atlantic HP systems... So cold/rather cold, and quite unsettled for the foreseeable? No robust signals for either a return to mild mush or a BFTE?

    

Wait and see what the SSW does...?

Yes GC it's a coo/cold pool with not a lot of movement. The only thing I would say is the forcing into the far PV via Atlantic has become a bit less robust over the last few days. More Atlantic based to the west seems to becoming a more common theme. Fi and all caveats but imo a weakening on the pressure trying to dismantle the ptv. Still a decent nhp but not as dramatic blocking wise ie the last week ete merry Xmas

[bluearmy]

Just a note in the gefs .....past few runs have lessened the strength of the greeny high anom on each run in the 9/11 day period ......it was ridiculously strong but now it’s strongest just south of greeny and over greeny itself it’s a high anom but nothing of note. The eps are way stronger at the same timescale in that same area. 

[Dave Kightley]

35 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Merry Christmas!

As someone who has been on here since 2004 there was quite some time where many of us believed a winter month like Dec 2010 wasn't possible anymore  back in the late 2000s due to climate change. We hadn't had a single month below 3c CET for about 12 years, a heck of a run of above average months as well. Then we had winter of 09/10 which proved we could go cold still, and then Dec 10 proved all of us doubters back then very wrong. 

The fact we got the 2nd coldest ever December in 400 years of record keeping shows that under exceptional circumstances we can still get severely cold, al lit means is the set-up just has to be that bit more perfect. Our climate hasn't warmed that drastically that we can't go extremely cold still, though of course each passing year makes any extreme cold harder to get of course.

However I agree this isn't 2010 for sure, and whilst the set-uo is promising in many ways, that contained a truly exceptional cold month for a very good reason, because it wasn't an exceptional pattern. I'm not yet seeing anything exceptional on the models, though the fact its even a remote and realistic possibility shows how much better position we are in this winter.

EDIT - the 00s (indeed since 1997!) didn't have a single month below 3C in the CET. The 10s have seen 5 (Jan,Feb,Dec 10, Mar 13 and Feb 18). Just to give you an idea how bleak the 00s were for sustained cold!

Mainly due to the fact the Winter months were Westerly dominated with hardly any Blocking! I think that trend started in the late 80s and cold spells less frequent and westerly weather being the reason for above average winter months 

 

which I believe is in Scientific thoughts that winters will be wetter meaning more Westerly weather with Blocking on average becoming less frequent you'd think averagely.. not completely sure on that.. they say wetter average so in weather terms it must be along though lines.. the Jet maybe more active then the 60s on average.. not sure on that

Edited December 25, 2020 by Dave Kightley