Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Allseasons-Si]

GEM at 240....

[Catacol]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

Not for long reload incoming. 

Yes - ongoing amplification even before we get to the downwelling impacts of whatever is in store in the strat. It’s like watching the Harry Potter films....just as one finishes another begins and each successive film gets better than the one before.....

[XtremeUKWeather]

Lovely GFS mean 

Eventful weather week coming up:

- Troughs in the flow providing surprise snow for some

- Fronts providing longer time of precip

- And showers of course from northern direction 

Slack wind as well so evaporative cooling will be aided hugely,     Also need to keep in mind not everyone wlll see something , which is fine as potential is weirdly high this winter as we head into 2021

Exciting times, I think uppers shouldn't be a big worry now as other factors will be helping bring the snow line down to sea level!!!!!1

ALSO Fax charts from met office are going to very important in helping identify troughs etc

[snowblizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

GEM at 240....

Still not cold enough!

[Weathizard]

Control run

 

 

and mean: impressive.

[Anthony Burden]

GFS continues the cold to very cold theme for next week,anybody who has no snow

in their part of the woods next week will be very unlucky.

[Kasim Awan]

Amazing 12z so far. 

[Allseasons-Si]

JFF,...gfs/p

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

JFF,...gfs/p

Yes the parallel is keen to bring the trough up from the sw via -wnao bit on this run the cold fights back and how !

[Gregulator]

Ive been lurking on here for a few winters now, and this is looking like an exciting period of model watching/discussion....

[tyson99]

11 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

GFS continues the cold to very cold theme for next week,anybody who has no snow

in their part of the woods next week will be very unlucky.

Maybe I’m seeing wrongly but my area - North Nottinghamshire seems to be the missing out area !! 

[Gowon]

9 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Still not cold enough!

I was thinking the same thing; all these promising looking synoptics on offer and there's no real cold uppers - what's going on?

 

[Methuselah]

Well, hardly a BFTE at Day 10.. but better than being whacked around the head with a soiled nappy!

     

[Sweatyman]

please bring the laughing emoji back. its needed

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, tyson99 said:

Maybe I’m seeing wrongly but my area - North Nottinghamshire seems to be the missing out area !! 

Not the thread for ‘will it snow in my back garden’ but areas that may see snowfall next week remain totally unknown for now ....more idea by Sunday but even then troughs won’t be picked out too well for placement 

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

I'm 13

Of course I Have. 

Arrows

[Matt H]

I’m off now for the Christmas break but thank you to everyone for being so welcoming for my first month on this forum, I have thoroughly enjoyed reading the contributions from everyone and I have also enjoyed getting involved in the conversation for the first time after previously being too nervous.

Merry Christmas to everyone and let’s hope that the model runs continue to provide some festive joy over the next few days!

[username home]

is this finally the 47, 63, 78 winter we've all been waiting? 

big freeze stops covid?!! 

[Griff]

37 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - ongoing amplification even before we get to the downwelling impacts of whatever is in store in the strat. It’s like watching the Harry Potter films....just as one finishes another begins and each successive film gets better than the one before.....

Amazing consistency, I quite agree. Let's hope

Somewhat baffled by the few (I have to admit there aren't many) negative comments, here and on social media. The evolution as yet hasn't really backed off at all, seems to open up plausible, but in normal winters, fantasy synoptics. 

Probably just me, so I'll only speak for myself, but it's possible I'm getting a bit greedy and my expectations are hugely distorted? Cue the comments about everything being pushed back to fi, but so far the models are doing a good job (better than I would have imagined), and if today is any example, possibly they are being a bit conservative and underplaying some real opportunities? 

And yes, I may have changed my tune since the 00z...

[SLEETY]

Typical that the Scottish mountains are going to be buried in  snow in the days, weeks? ahead and some of the ski centres are closing now until further notice because of covid. 

The gem is a  GEM BTW! 

Edited December 24, 2020 by SLEETY

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

Gfs Para 12z 

This is still may favoured synoptic for that period. Admittedly it doesnt have much support at all! 

Merry xmas guys

I wont be on here over the xmas period apart from fleeting looks at the models

All looks exceptional still and has hallmarks of a significantly lengthy cold spell

[Brassmonkeylily]

Just thinking that this thread is so obsessive about cold it failed to notice a major storm about to hit our shores ....discuss

[Scott Ingham]

57 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - ongoing amplification even before we get to the downwelling impacts of whatever is in store in the strat. It’s like watching the Harry Potter films....just as one finishes another begins and each successive film gets better than the one before.....

If I had a title book for winter 2020 it would be 

Eat Sleep Amplification Repeat 

[Polar Maritime]

A very Merry Christmas to all here in the MOD, What fantastic model watching to be had and an interesting outlook to come.. Especially during these difficult times it certainly lightens the mood  Some great commentry which is what makes this thread what it is...

Good health to one and all!

Edited December 24, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

Just thinking that this thread is so obsessive about cold it failed to notice a major storm about to hit our shores ....discuss

There are other threads for discussing short term severe weather impacts. The storm has been mentioned quite a lot in here given the exact tracking of the boxing day low determines how much snow potential there is in the days after..