Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Bit like at the end of February 1989, look how low the pressure (sub 965mb)  is but how slack the gradient is over the UK

Incidentally we had snow here that Friday evening but look at the 850hpas

Somethings in our favour this time - a weaker sun and shorter days. 

[That ECM]

This will be of interest to some.

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

This will be of interest to some.

Noticed the warm air heading into Greenland

[ALL ABOARD]

The wind issue is an interesting one.. 

Initally, as is modeled at the moment there would be some strong winds. But as the low moves slightly south the majority of the UK is left under a very slack flow, low heights and heavy percipation that may cause evaporate cooling. 

Its a now cast situation for sure. 

 

[chionomaniac]

At work today so havent been able to look at any models properly. Great synoptics but I almost feel like the output is toying with us regarding the strength of cold. Look what you can have - or not, or maybe later.

I know the analogy for the tease but I won't say as this is a family forum lol!

[frosty ground]

31 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

What a mess next week is turning into! Lamppost watching is usually a 2-3 hour activity - next week it looks like a daily occurrence for low altitude areas. The models seem content to hold the level of cold at the dividing line between rain and snow throughout the week. This is one of those cold spells that is really going to test stress levels. It really could be a snowfest anywhere depending on where the little disturbances drift to, and equally could be a damp squib. I'm about 50/50 between the two. I really cannot tell, and I'm thinking there will be daily nowcasts across the country. Some people will get very very lucky next week.

This sums it up perfectly 

 

Anyone saying there is no chance of snow over the next ten days must be trolling.

[Met4Cast]

Well.. there's the Met Offices' high pressure on the EPS for the start of January.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

This sums it up perfectly 

 

Anyone saying there is no chance of snow over the next ten days must be trolling.

It's a conclusion I am coming to, as well   Very much a love/hate relationship with the weather next week for the forecasters! Snow events will be nowcast situations and there could be surprise falls just about anywhere I would think with this unusual setup.

It would take a brave soul to call where might see snow just a day or two ahead, let alone ten days 

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. there's the Met Offices' high pressure on the EPS for the start of January.

Thanks for this sobering post met4castjust dont understand how the mean can look so fantastic at 240 hours with eps like that!!think we can forget about the west based nao now and think of how far east everything will be pushed?

Edited December 24, 2020 by sheikhy

[Vikos]

All: It's gonna snow!

Me:   

 

That's quite a windy thing, we may have a winter (snow) storm on Sunday in higher regions (in Germany at least)...

Edited December 24, 2020 by Vikos

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. there's the Met Offices' high pressure on the EPS for the start of January.

Goes to show you shouldn't count out the met office

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Promised by whom? That's just not true.

The North of GB with height has always shown as the most likely for snow.

For the rest of us. Very little chance in the next 10 days.

Unless you have been living in a cave for the last 2 weeks you must have missed all the posts on here from people saying ("promising") that the 850s were not low enough for snow, so yes it is true. 

Big big call to state "very little chance of snow for the rest of us for the next 10 days" 

[Sky Full]

What’s this rolling out on the GFS?  Snow depth charts for Monday morning, 28th December.....

7:00am                                                     1:00pm

  
 

M4 corridor looking interesting...... it’s just four days away so getting into the reliable (I hope).    
 

[Nick F]

Intetesting secondary low feature swinging east across the south Monday, the 28th earmarked for a while now for such a feature to bring snow somewhere in the south

Edited December 24, 2020 by Nick F

[Daniel*]

NAO and AO forecasts from EPS quite impressive the negative tendency.

[terrier]

7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. there's the Met Offices' high pressure on the EPS for the start of January.

Well that’s a very sobering update. So does that mean we can discount the GFS ECM & GEM output. Because that met update is against all those 3 models. But as I’ve just mentioned it isn’t a bad thing especially for the poor soles down in Norfolk today surrounded by flood water. I think they would snap your hand off right now for high pressure over the U.K. to at least dry things out. Guess we should never discount the met once again. Anyway merry Christmas to everyone on here and happy new year. 

[Skullzrulerz]

14 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thanks for this sobering post met4castjust dont understand how the mean can look so fantastic at 240 hours with eps like that!!think we can forget about the west based nao now and think of how far east everything will be pushed?

Let's not count it out just yet 

Could easily move to something else on the next update 

 

[Guest]

 

11 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well that’s a very sobering update. So does that mean we can discount the GFS ECM & GEM output. Because that met update is against all those 3 models. 

We can't discount any solution at this stage. January 4th is eons away in meteorological terms. A lot of weather to get through first. It may well come to pass that high pressure becomes the dominant feature over the UK (good for the reasons you have already mentioned) but equally there's a wealth of current data to suggest that may not be the case. The Met Office, however well respected they are, are not infallible after all.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Steel City Skies

[Daniel*]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thanks for this sobering post met4castjust dont understand how the mean can look so fantastic at 240 hours with eps like that!!think we can forget about the west based nao now and think of how far east everything will be pushed?

I’m baffled by that as well greater signal for high pressure to remain towards our W/NW. My advice ignore it, there’s nowt suggesting low pressure to south of Greenland it’s just wrong and totally out of sync with EPS I’m seeing. 

[ICE COLD]

24 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. there's the Met Offices' high pressure on the EPS for the start of January.

Morning met4cast , that’s very strange how can you have a mean like this at day 10 on the ECM but have the above ? 

[danm]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

This thread is completely bipolar and difficult for someone with a very limited understanding to follow.

One post will be talking about potential blizzards but is immediately followed by the next post talking about bbqs and swimsuits. 
 
I understand nothing is nailed on and most of the posting will involve charts deep into the future, but it sure is confusing!

Merry Christmas to all of you anyway and I hope we all see some of the white stuff over the next couple of months.

Once you know which posters to listen to, just scroll past the others...

Edited December 24, 2020 by danm

[Geordiesnow]

17 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Intetesting secondary low feature swinging east across the south Monday, the 28th earmarked for a while now for such a feature to bring snow somewhere in the south

Yep there's no disputing anywhere lucky enough to have PPN and under the low centre could receive snowfall because of the very low thicknesses but its going to be localised and only the real chance of snow and even then it may not stick at lower levels. 

Once the low centre pulls away and the winds increase, snow will be more limited and that's when the poor upper air temperatures come into play. 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m baffled by that as well greater signal for high pressure to remain towards our W/NW. My advice ignore it, there’s nowt suggesting low pressure to south of Greenland it’s just wrong and totally out of sync with EPS I’m seeing. 

This is what im trying to get my head around!!!it just looks completely different!!you would not expect a mean to look that good!!!love how he put it on here and just got off!!!would love an explanation from met4cast!!!

[Sky Full]

The period from 7:00pm Sunday night to 1:00pm Wednesday - surface temperatures and snow depth as seen by the GFS 6z this morning:

   

Not a dumping but ground temperatures could see the snow lying for a time - if it happens like this of course!

 

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m baffled by that as well greater signal for high pressure to remain towards our W/NW. My advice ignore it, there’s nowt suggesting low pressure to south of Greenland it’s just wrong and totally out of sync with EPS I’m seeing. 

I don't think we can just ignore what the met is showing us 

We started seeing this last night when the high pressure starting to fall apart to around Iceland

What a shame and quite a disappointing update but it goes on