Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Sky Full]

My goodness, this has been and continues to be an EPIC chase!  Can’t remember seeing charts like the ones on offer now, not before Christmas anyway, since 2010, at least.  These charts have just got to verify or preferably amplify, because if it all goes tights up this place will go into complete meltdown.   I have to say it would be just our luck to get an absolute pasting this winter, creating a triple whammy with B****t, and C***d.  It seems that as early as the 27th December we might get our first taste of potentially even more interesting events to come.....

[Ice Day]

What an incredible spell of model viewing.  The best I would say since 2010 and the scary thing is the 'potential' is there for something akin to that special year.  Not bothered posting much as the volume and quality of the posts has been so high, I hadn't got anything to add - we have a superb group of knowledgeable members on here along with some enthusiastic (rabid) 'amateurs'.  

Anyway, onto the the pub run and things seem to be ticking along nicely at 132 - we're getting numb to these amazing charts!

Normally the stakes are so high that missing out on a cold spell becomes quite stressful, however I don't feel like it this winter. It feels to me that if we don't get the jackpot on the first attempt, then we will be seeing another opportunity a few days later, and so on.

Anyway, as you were.  Keep up the good work.

 

[Griff]

What's not to love... 

Sat on the sofa hiding these charts from my other half because if I tell anyone it won't happen. 

I think she thinks I'm having an affair... 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Griff

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The EC clusters are insane.. full on Greenland blocking.

Most importantly, teleconnections are supportive of a Greenland high for the next round of amplification. There is however a possibility of a -wNAO which would prevent the coldest air reaching the UK.

I’m intrigued ...... you say the clusters are insane (I assume in a good way re cold) and yet the 50% west based nao cluster is only a ‘possibility’ ????  Surely it’s 50/50 if you take the clusters seriously ???

[Weathizard]

Uppers upgrading, well I never.... (12z vs 18z comparison) 

[sparky71a]

12 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

Yea but i can’t see where to read an 850 chart, or a 500 for that matter.  

How to read synoptic weather charts

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Find out what the lines, arrows and letters mean on synoptic weather charts.

 

[SMU]

Greenland High 100% on this run - developing T150!!

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs at 144 hrs pushes the cold air in from the north further south and it is also a more northerly sourced airflow.

[Great Plum]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

What's not to love... 

Sat on the sofa hiding these charts from my other half because if I tell anyone it won't happen. 

I think she thinks I'm having an affair... 

that’s what happens when you keep looking at models

[Zak M]

18z GFS brings the -10c isotherm into Scotland and the -8c isotherm into parts of central and southern England. Certainly an upgrade from its previous run.

Edited December 23, 2020 by Zak M

[chionomaniac]

Anyone clicking between runs to work out what is better?  Not a lot between them upto T+150 so far.  Cold gets further south but thinner spread. Now looking at the next slider

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

18z GFS brings the -10c isotherm into Scotland and the -8c isotherm into parts central and southern England. Certainly an upgrade from its previous run.

All the way baby! 

[TSNWK]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Anyone clicking between runs to work out what is better?  Not a lot between them upto T+150 so far.  Cold gets further south but thinner spread. Now looking at the next slider

I do this all the time.. looks less wedgey up to our north but colder uppers... at 162

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone clicking between runs to work out what is better?  Not a lot between them upto T+150 so far.  Cold gets further south but thinner spread. Now looking at the next slider

Haha I'm basically like "next slide please!"

Yeah I'm comparing whats going on upstream. Nothing yet to suggest we won't get a very pretty FI, of course there is a big difference between a pretty looking FI and one that will actually give us the goods in real terms! There have been stunning ensemble runs synoptically, until you see the 0c isotherm well north of the Midlands. 

Edited December 23, 2020 by kold weather

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone clicking between runs to work out what is better?  Not a lot between them upto T+150 so far.  Cold gets further south but thinner spread. Now looking at the next slider

It’s my one criticism of Meteociel is that they don’t have a side by side comparison viewer like the netweather GFS charts does.

[Bricriu]

18 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The EC clusters are insane.. full on Greenland blocking.

Most importantly, teleconnections are supportive of a Greenland high for the next round of amplification. There is however a possibility of a -wNAO which would prevent the coldest air reaching the UK.

It would be a real sickner if that were to happen, but it can't be discounted.

[Kasim Awan]

Heights over the Atlantic are stumbling further east on this run. Low NW of Iceland is also a little stronger. These are both positives as the deeper low will contribute to the cold pool as it dives south east, with the high then likely to build back strongly over Greenland.

[chionomaniac]

Lol block slightly further east. How often would that be a good thing

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol block slightly further east. How often would that be a good thing

Is this because of the risk of a west based -nao?

More positive news is that we have some colder uppers at last 

I might start coming on board if this keeps up 

[Weathizard]

Swathes of colder uppers to our north here but this is starting to look a bit dangerous with the way that energy coming over the top is pushing our Atlantic ridge east, we need it just right but not too Far East. 
 

Give us the Icelandic Sausage please mr weather gods. (oh MATRON)

[Downburst]

I’ll probably be banned and warned by a mod, but never mind. This winter the northern hemisphere view is very prevalent on the board. And why not with such a blocked Atlantic. But for heavens sake, there is precious little actual cold developing at all. Today is colder synoptically then most of FI. This is getting crazy. Let’s get it together and be a little more tactical in analysing just exactly what we truly believe may happen in the British isles. I want snow as much as anyone, but a lot of toppers deliver more. This low is not cold enough, it doesn’t have a cold source and that’s a fact.

 

 

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Is this because of the risk of a west based -nao?

More positive news is that we have some colder uppers at last 

I might start coming on board if this keeps up 

Yep block has been too far north and west last run. So slightly more east and south better for us

[TSNWK]

Warm sector with -3 uppers 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol block slightly further east. How often would that be a good thing

Yes,base of the heights is further E/SE off Iberia should prevent WB-NAO.

[Kasim Awan]

Lets see how many people throw the towel in just because the *pub* run has pressure 2mb lower over Greenland