Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS T192 looking very impressive, 1055mb Greenland High stretching further east too in the Atlantic resulting in a continued cold northerly flow with -6 to -8 850hpa temperatures. Very slack flow so temperatures struggling to get above freezing with increasing snow cover countrywide.

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Battleground Snow]

Could be a great FI coming here, Greenland ridge may form a little south and east compared to 06z run and force the jet further south.

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

Wow. ICON and GFS more or less identical at 180-190h. Much better tilt on the renewed bout of amplification. Cold packing in.

[markw2680]

Gfs, ukmo, icon all look good to me at this stage, what more can we ask for?

[Updated_Weather]

Just watched the latest metO weather ahead & they think beginning on Jan, high pressure will be over the UK settling things down & dry - where is this being shown because I haven’t seen that on all the 3 models?

[TSNWK]

It’s another great gfs run out to 192.. I sensed an increasing theme for slack heights to our north aka wedges! 
 

now for rest west based nao or not....,.

[tight isobar]

19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So only temporary Northerly then high pressure sitting over UK, at end of the year. I take it the met office use other models  that we the public never see, none of the 3 main models have been showing that. 

Disappointed. 

But the graph-update like the public ones...!! Hold that thought !. And a variation of a mix set @operationals are blended.. this is a beginning point.. and 1 that’s of evolve.. changes are paramount.. in mid term forecast!!! Imo

Edited December 23, 2020 by tight isobar

[Howie]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Just watched the latest metO weather ahead & they think beginning on Jan, high pressure will be over the UK settling things down & dry - where is this being shown because I haven’t seen that on all the 3 models?

I was just saying how much this has completely baffled me

[Weathizard]

Feel like a broken record but STONKER incoming here, perfectly positioned HP

[sheikhy]

What a start to the 12zs!!!gfs looks lovely at 192 hours!!what we gota watch now is the west based nao!!

[bluearmy]

Pay attention to the svaalbard heights ont his run too .....shoud, be a fun fi 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

It’s another great gfs run out to 192.. I sensed an increasing theme for slack heights to our north aka wedges! 
 

now for rest west based nao or not....,.

Second Greenland heights are setting up a few hundreds miles further south and east. This has to be a good thing.. and that chart over the uk has all pretty much under -6 at least.. cracking chart..

 

[booferking]

Gfs sticks 2 fingers up to the Metoffice 10 dayer.

Edited December 23, 2020 by booferking

[Joe Bloggs]

33 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

 

18+ material there.

That shows the NW getting buried. 
 

Must be faulty! 

[markw2680]

Will be very cold under this slack low pressure, with spells of wintry stuff dropping from the sky I’d imagine 

[tight isobar]

Lads n- lassies.. I give you the ...GFS

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Pay attention to the svaalbard heights ont his run too .....shoud, be a fun fi 

Sooo close to a link up

[Weathizard]

Atlantic ridging is normally well modelled by the GFS & it’s being extremely consistent with this theme, it is at day 8-10 but I think it’s on to something with this pattern.

Its the kind of set up that parts of the UK could get absolutely pasted by snow. 

[Tim Bland]

Regardless of the amazing output for coldies it’s amazing to see this much confidence from the GFS at day 10 (06z Vs 12z below) ️

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Atlantic ridging is normally well modelled by the GFS & it’s being extremely consistent with this theme, it is at day 8-10 but I think it’s on to something with this pattern.

Its the kind of set up that parts of the UK could get absolutely pasted by snow. 

Being super critical... You would want the high a little bit further east, but fantastic none the less, plenty of time for that!

[Firefly2005]

I'm a rare poster in here mainly as I just don't have enough knowledge or understanding to comment. These posts look really promising, but I've been over-optimistic before. 

What point can we look at models and say cold/snow is pretty much a definite? 2-3 days out? And so I guess all these lovely looking model outputs could still give us nothing if they're at 5-6 days?

Sorry for the low level post but it's nice to hear the real chances in lay terms... 

Regards

Ian

ps I live at 280m in the pennines so I'm hopeful....

Edited December 23, 2020 by Firefly2005

[goosey007]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Just watched the latest metO weather ahead & they think beginning on Jan, high pressure will be over the UK settling things down & dry - where is this being shown because I haven’t seen that on all the 3 models?

The output continues to be outstanding for cold prospects.....but this forecast from the met is almost annoying....if it turns to be correct whilst at this juncture all major models are showing something completely different, It does make me wonder why we look at them at all ......slight over reaction

[Mike Poole]

21 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

GFS & UKMO really quite different at T144 (Day 7). ICON appears to be a middleground.

 

What’s maybe important is that all have the centre of the low to the east of the UK by varying amounts.

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Firefly2005 said:

I'm a rare poster in here mainly as I just don't have enough knowledge or understanding to comment. These posts look really promising, but I've been over-optimistic before. 

What point can we look at models and say cold/snow is pretty much a definite? 2-3 days out? And so I guess all these lovely looking model outputs could still give us nothing if they're at 5-6 days?

Sorry for the low level post but it's nice to hear the real chances in lay terms...

Regards

Ian

Cold is different to forecast than snow.

snow is never certain.. most cases depend on if it’s an event of showers but I’d expect on the day to be the best or now cast situation

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

The output continues to be outstanding for cold prospects.....but this forecast from the met is almost annoying....if it turns to be correct whilst at this juncture all major models are showing something completely different, It does make me wonder why we look at them at all ......slight over reaction

I wouldn’t worry tbh..