Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Mr snowman 2018]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Improving !!

Bbc are even saying heavy and disruptive snow for many areas next week now !

[Mr snowman 2018]

Absolutely brilliant !

[tight isobar]

Kinks in the flow...@ wobbly isobars... this is some run —-ALREADY...

Edited December 23, 2020 by tight isobar

[Mr snowman 2018]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Kinks in the flow...@ wobbly isobars... this is some run —-ALREADY...

The uppers in the east look moderated though and the dew points in the east aren’t that great rather I fear the north east  and east may miss out altogether 

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Improving !!

28 - 31. Snow cant be ruled out have you seen the 850s improve in situ run to run with a north Easterly flow full of disturbances and troughs 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

The uppers in the east look moderated though and the dew points in the east aren’t that great rather I fear the north east  and east may miss out altogether 

I honestly wouldn’t worry at this stage about geographical pin points pal... everyone is in the firing line as things stand... @evolving situ

[tight isobar]

Av a word ref... slider low. Fresh cut from Greenland.. miles-out but anything near these synops .. covid plays 2nd fiddle to nation wide shutdown!!!

Edited December 23, 2020 by tight isobar

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS gives some severely cold nights under a slack flow. Would be looking at -5 to -10 minimums on that run.

[tight isobar]

Crab claw lock block... the road  bk to mild.. has just been CLOSED!!!?

Edited December 23, 2020 by tight isobar

[Cheshire Freeze]

Absolutely nothing not to like about that GFS run. I just hope we can see the UKMO back it at D6 later. UKMO keeps the bowling ball low over us whereas the GFS clears it off with the NE'ly digging in behind.

[Cheshire Freeze]

That really is a stunner of a Greenland HP in la la land

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Absolutely nothing not to like about that GFS run. I just hope we can see the UKMO back it at D6 later. UKMO keeps the bowling ball low over us whereas the GFS clears it off with the NE'ly digging in behind.

Thoughts on snow mate? Have you seen BBCs forecast?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Thoughts on snow mate? Have you seen BBCs forecast?

Depends which output comes to pass. Only goes to D6 but can't see a quick route to snow on UKMO output. GFS on the other hand would produce from D6 onwards almost anywhere...

[Mr snowman 2018]

This type of gfs run it would just get colder and colder and colder with that slack flow and any precipitation coming into the UK would fall as snow best charts i have seen since 2018 

[tight isobar]

Incidentally.. this is the 3D model =GFS -global.. it’s has all support ie -850s jet etc.. as well as roll /rotate.. it’s a great tool.. @thank me later.. @top right hand corner-when viewing gfs main model...@gfs 3D monde..   it’s not used enough.. imo!.

Edited December 23, 2020 by tight isobar

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Depends which output comes to pass. Only goes to D6 but can't see a quick route to snow on UKMO output. GFS on the other hand would produce from D6 onwards almost anywhere...

Yeah definitely. The ukmo has the low too far north. Agreed about the GFS. The GFS run is a match for the BBC forecast. All will depend on where troughs and disturbances lie. Lets hope the ECM backs the GFS. Certainly has upgraded potential from 2 days ago

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah definitely. The ukmo has the low too far north. Agreed about the GFS. The GFS run is a match for the BBC forecast. All will depend on where troughs and disturbances lie. Lets hope the ECM backs the GFS. Certainly has upgraded potential from 2 days ago

If the GFS progression lands, we're laughing. If the UKMO progression lands then we are in for a wait once again.

[Mucka]

That is certainly a stunner from GFS.

Real low level snow chances probably start from late 28th/29th and continue throughout the run.

Also that Greenland high is a thing of beauty, FI for now but so long as the Atlantic stays amplified with a Southerly jet you would think it had a better chance of verifying than any usual cold blocked FI output.

I always much prefer a Greenland high to a Scandi high as a North Easterly is less fickle than an Easterly and anyway it tends to be less dry with better snow chances, specially for Central and Western parts while for the South there is always the chance of a Channel runner or snow showers off the sea anyway.

The initial push from the N maybe a bit of damp squib but snow chances should gradually improve as we head toward the end of Dec while the surface will get colder and colder.

Fingers crossed we are locked in.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The only downside is that the GFS seems to be backing away from a proper split SSW...the 18z ensembles were a real backtrack in this regard. The 0z just displaces the SPV to Canada

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If the GFS progression lands, we're laughing. If the UKMO progression lands then we are in for a wait once again.

Spot on. A couple of days models needed still to see whether we can get the low to drop sufficently south and east or at least due South. Not keen on the strat forecast again looking more and more like a displacement. Either that or the split has been pushed back 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The only downside is that the GFS seems to be backing away from a proper split SSW...the 18z ensembles were a real backtrack in this regard. The 0z just displaces the SPV to Canada

Youve just posted the same as me at the same time hahaha trending hasnt been great recently

[Mucka]

GFS short ensembles, looks like it fancies snow chances for W Midlands Xmas eve

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Youve just posted the same as me at the same time hahaha trending hasnt been great recently

For as long as we're not seeing the SPV split, it's vital that we keep the trop pattern amplified...that includes the Russian blocking. 

If it relents before a split we could very easily see the Atlantic regain control into January.

Edited December 23, 2020 by CreweCold

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

For as long as we're not seeing the SPV split, it's vital that we keep the trop pattern amplified...that includes the Russian blocking. 

If it relents before a split we could very easily see the Atlantic regain control into January.

Yeah its a catch 22 however as although we get colder the Russian blocking is pushed much further east pushing the warming further away from the heart of the vortex. I think I'd rather keep the average temperatures and a stronger Ural block to finish the vortex off 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah its a catch 22 however as although we get colder the Russian blocking is pushed much further east pushing the warming further away from the heart of the vortex. I think I'd rather keep the average temperatures and a stronger Ural block to finish the vortex off 

Agree completely. Would rather play the long game for maximum potential.