Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That W Russian block is getting stronger with every run i have noticed.

it could be a game player later down the line.

 

Tired now, getting up at 5...

[booferking]

Long polar flow would yea stop it gfs.

[Met4Cast]

I'm not liking the trends on the models today, certainly a slight shift westwards across the board in terms of where the low ends up, not hugely by any means but any westwards shift means the air is more modified and thus less cold. 

The trend for the second wave of amplification has also been to weaken it's northerly extent, initially pushing into S Greenland but now just making it as an Atlantic high. I'm not buying the height rises around Iceland just yet on the GFS, we were here a few days ago with the GFS progging a GH for some 8-9 runs in a row, we know that hasn't transpired. 

Until the EPS start showing the Griceland height rises I'm not buying it, the GFS did this a couple of weeks ago too.

Outlook? Chilly yes, below average into January certainly, rather unsettled with low pressure over the UK bringing spells of cold rain/wintriness mainly over hills but likely to low levels in dribs & drabs. Beyond that???

[Winterdarkness]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Stick a fork in me, I’m done! Bank this run please  

That’s a real snow maker!

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That W Russian block is getting stronger with every run i have noticed.

it could be a game player later down the line.

 

Yes, and it is a question of how?  Backing towards us maybe, but I rather think not, it will ensure us the SSW and then we will see what happens, I fancy it may not then be a block to that cold bottled up there heading our way, but I’m getting way ahead of things!  

[Anthony Burden]

With the split in the polar vortex done and dusted and SSW already beginning,the

tendency on the charts will be for winds to turn easterly.Great watching a lot of chopping 

and changes to take place with the charts due to troposphere cold to very cold all the way.

[Mapantz]

Not that it will be to everyone's taste, but Saturday in to Sunday could be extremely lively as a vigorous cold front moves South and East. A large temperature gradient between air masses may produce a very active squall line with thunder/hail mixed in, as well as some nasty gusts of wind.

 

 

Something of interest for those who enjoy lively weather!

Edited December 22, 2020 by Mapantz

[sheikhy]

Fantastic mean and control by the way at 174 hours!!!

[Winterdarkness]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

I'm not liking the trends on the models today, certainly a slight shift westwards across the board in terms of where the low ends up, not hugely by any means but any westwards shift means the air is more modified and thus less cold. 

The trend for the second wave of amplification has also been to weaken it's northerly extent, initially pushing into S Greenland but now just making it as an Atlantic high. I'm not buying the height rises around Iceland just yet on the GFS, we were here a few days ago with the GFS progging a GH for some 8-9 runs in a row, we know that hasn't transpired. 

Until the EPS start showing the Griceland height rises I'm not buying it, the GFS did this a couple of weeks ago too.

Outlook? Chilly yes, below average into January certainly, rather unsettled with low pressure over the UK bringing spells of cold rain/wintriness mainly over hills but likely to low levels in dribs & drabs. Beyond that???

January is looking very cold with high risk of snow events. There’s nothing indicating an unsettled Jan? Yes this week but not in the next 2 weeks... 

[Nick F]

Nothing mild on the 18z GFS run, but if it's snow you want, fair bit of marginality initially when the low drops over the UK, higher ground favoured, until we tap into some colder air from the NE Tuesday next week onwards. And yes, I'm not basing this solely on T850s. 

For once though, the UK seeing some of the coldest air in Europe, bar northern Scandinavia. The Iceland block and low heights over Europe very exciting to see too in FI. Not out the realms of posibility either, likely we'll see more and more eye candy going forth into January, as the expected +EAMT starts to have an impact on the NH trop patterns and the SPV too.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Nick F

[Allseasons-Si]

Great chart viewing at it's finest...

it's better than watching the telly this..

not that i watch it much,i am always glued on here.

 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I'm not liking the trends on the models today, certainly a slight shift westwards across the board in terms of where the low ends up, not hugely by any means but any westwards shift means the air is more modified and thus less cold. 

The trend for the second wave of amplification has also been to weaken it's northerly extent, initially pushing into S Greenland but now just making it as an Atlantic high. I'm not buying the height rises around Iceland just yet on the GFS, we were here a few days ago with the GFS progging a GH for some 8-9 runs in a row, we know that hasn't transpired. 

Until the EPS start showing the Griceland height rises I'm not buying it, the GFS did this a couple of weeks ago too.

Outlook? Chilly yes, below average into January certainly, rather unsettled with low pressure over the UK bringing spells of cold rain/wintriness mainly over hills but likely to low levels in dribs & drabs. Beyond that???

Isn't that British winter? I get your point though. But looks good for Netherlands up to Norway... 

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

January is looking very cold with high risk of snow events. There’s nothing indicating an unsettled Jan? Yes this week but not in the next 2 weeks... 

I didn't say anything about an unsettled January? Though I could have perhaps been a little clearer. 

Xmas - New Year: Chilly, unsettled, windy, cold rain for most, some wintriness, mostly over hills but down to low levels at times, esp with nocturnal cooling.

Into January: Remaining on the cooler side, no sign of anything "mild", but not yet buying the height rises around Griceland that the GFS seems to be latching onto, need more support from the EPS which at the moment is lacking somewhat. I'm very positive about the January prospects, +EAMT event should see a renewed surge in blocked conditions + a potential major SSW.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Met4Cast

[bluearmy]

I have to say that whilst we will continue to see amplified patterns beyond the drop down of the trough early next week, the detail on what we have in store for nw Europe remains elusive.  In fact, not just the detail, the way the macro pattern manifests itself remains a mystery. 

whilst the individual runs contain much to keep us entertained, I can’t raise too much enthusiasm for something that is likely to disappear within 6 or 12 hours.  Remaining on the cold side is about it really ......

[ICE COLD]

Lovely run from the 18z . The uppers are looking pretty good in FI . 

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T312:

Brilliant synoptics, and nothing to say that there wouldn’t be more amplification down the line, who knows though, the block might even hold.  

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Nothing mild on the 18z GFS run, but if it's snow you want, fair bit of marginality initially when the low drops over the UK, higher ground favoured, until we tap into some colder air from the NE Tuesday next week onwards. And yes, I'm not basing this solely on T850s. 

For once though, the UK seeing some of the coldest air in Europe, bar northern Scandinavia. The Iceland block and low heights over Europe very exciting to see too in FI. Not out the realms of posibility either, likely we'll see more and more eye candy going forth into January, as the expected +EAMT starts to have an impact on the NH trop patterns and the SPV too.

Agreed. Always look forward to your balanced posts.

[Winterdarkness]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T312:

Brilliant synoptics, and nothing to say that there wouldn’t be more amplification down the line, who knows though, the block might even hold.  

The charts resemble a bat

[Kasim Awan]

ECM had that easterly for day 10 a few days ago. Goes to show that D10 charts are useful for picking out longer term trends in the model, and that the EC has supported the GFS evolution seen tonight. This increases my confidence a bit to.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[BARRY]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Lovely run from the 18z . The uppers are looking pretty good in FI . 

Looking good but Fi lets get Christmas sorted and then we can concentrate on the rest of the winter.

[Allseasons-Si]

I am doing too much reading in hare that i am missing the model rolling out lol...

slow down

ERM!!!

WOW.

[ICE COLD]

Just proves that you don’t need a massive blocking high for winter in the uk . Lovely wedge does the job . The 18z just keeps giving . 

[Day 10]

14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That W Russian block is getting stronger with every run i have noticed.

it could be a game player later down the line.

 

Perhaps all this feeble weather will be nothing compared to the Siberian Express later in January. 

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I have to say that whilst we will continue to see amplified patterns beyond the drop down of the trough early next week, the detail on what we have in store for nw Europe remains elusive.  In fact, not just the detail, the way the macro pattern manifests itself remains a mystery. 

whilst the individual runs contain much to keep us entertained, I can’t raise too much enthusiasm for something that is likely to disappear within 6 or 12 hours.  Remaining on the cold side is about it really ......

Have you not been impressed by the consistency of the GFS recently? I agree it does usually chop and change like the wind, but it doesn't seem to be dropping renewed attempts to establish a high in the griceland area

[Tim Bland]

Looks a tad marginal ️

Edited December 22, 2020 by Tim Bland