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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

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By Met4Cast
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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
40 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Would take a brave soul to completely distrust the GFS at the moment given it was the first call this cold spell, IIRC?

Surely it will be the first to call anything given it goes out to 384. As for evidence, UKMO consistently verifies better than GFS.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

just on twitter Glosea says yes to SSW

Thought the whole point of GloSea5 was that it was supposed to be able to predict these things earlier than the other long range models, it is really looking like being wrong when predicting mild this winter, good to see, it’s been wrong predicting cold before (16/17) but great to see it isn’t infallible when discounting cold! 

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm looks like ukmo at 72 hours!!

bloomin heck shaky!!

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Guest

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Surely it will be the first to call anything given it goes out to 384. As for evidence, UKMO consistently verifies better than GFS.

I'm aware that UKMO verifies better overall. I am always more encouraged when the UKMO model is on board with a favoured scenario Regarding your other point, it's not always t +384 when the GFS picks up a new trend  

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

bloomin heck shaky!!

And same at 96 hours!!!!the reason i mention the earlier timeframes is because it sets the tone for the rest of the run!!and this could look nothing like the icon hopefully!!!

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And same at 96 hours!!!!the reason i mention the earlier timeframes is because it sets the tone for the rest of the run!!and this could look nothing like the icon hopefully!!!

Not the most confident final line but let’s run with it

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snowblind Community Regular

snowblind

Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
Posted
16 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

just on twitter Glosea says yes to SSW

Oh no! It will never happen now...

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted
Just now, Bullseye said:

Unless you know we get a SSW and the unthinkable happens... Don't want to be the one that says it but lets just say the GLOSEA ends up in our bad books.

Yes, an SSW does shuffle the deck, and that is risky if we have cold already in place, I’ve mentioned this before.  But if one is going to happen it is going to happen, and the plots showing the forecasted split look similar to me to ones that have had a cold and quick trop response for the UK in the past, GFS T384, for example:

1F182FD8-A7AA-4CF5-94F3-413A8AA268F2.thumb.png.e96e21cbd374c8ccab8cf59b59a9a1f0.png

Compare to forecast charts in 2013 and 2018:

07960977-C945-47E7-821E-76D564FB4709.thumb.png.eea869cc6dfa56448a5eafeaf9e0fa9c.png41066F62-E518-4211-889D-F100F98C824C.thumb.png.49bc557fdaa09879084917518581a0fa.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Yes it’s further west..no it’s further east..oh no there’s a pesky shortwave!..don’t you just love the British winter!...anyway, the GEFS 12z shows cold / snow potential, especially from just after Christmas!

B472F2F4-69A0-4AFA-8F6F-837AE732DE2A.thumb.png.1ba6c10e451d0b09909f99bb7e0efd2c.png87504261-79FA-4BDF-9CDF-83D389BBFC8E.thumb.png.a942a47976c73163dff9d953d60fcdb9.png2C32AA64-98BF-48C3-95DE-E01EF860D28F.thumb.png.b764ca1450056c3470a9dc0471467080.png49A2352E-EA83-4C19-8438-0CAFAE1D266C.thumb.png.c48f525ff8bbc52f53815bd99902309d.png70933037-F2BF-4B74-8A4D-7622A5CEE679.thumb.png.96616471392a2612c4bbab6df9e2bb90.png1C867C96-DB62-41AC-940E-0406B1DE1D8A.thumb.png.59a965684609a9eb7f946826a82243ec.pngC44B2DED-4D89-4C41-982D-FD3D07755896.thumb.png.ac1998a23b11b3e0a9a0e908947d025d.pngC8A9712E-627D-4B4C-A0E3-C04F20FF55B1.thumb.png.a4d561e04a093aa1dcd8b0cb0df08417.png24CF72EF-E55A-43EA-B209-662C05E30CBD.thumb.png.a82c01e28a7dc24e7310e98174e939c7.png

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

But it by no means a guarantee for cold and snowy for the UK ? Could easily end up in Russia Or the Stated 

 

SSW would help with cold toward our little island IF we can get those zonal winds to reverse which some models are suggesting may happen.

Edited by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

ECM further east and flabbier low but also slightly further north than the GFS at D5

Further west actually not as good but the ridge is driven more into Greenland. 
 

583B6D2C-A2A0-4A19-8B5F-ECE18B08E477.thumb.png.63cbeb25a8924c38ffdf76614dd05552.pngB7AB7DE3-11F0-45E2-A264-39C93C98BD1D.thumb.png.641028a6565ee89cecfb8d8a61368180.png

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted
Just now, Cloud 10 said:

Deep purple anyone?

 

Very rare if that comes off.

 

ECU1-120.thumb.png.1665f5931b1f61340d5ed4fea733814d.png

Wont be any smoke on the water coz it will all be frozen

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
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Posted (edited)

Ecm backing up thoughts of a cold snowy xmas to new year period so far! 

This could take many by surprise!

Snow north of the low circulation!

Also upgrades on the strength and longevity of the Greenland High.

Fantastic 12z so far

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Very wintery out to our west/northwest. We have uppers of 0 to -4 

spacer.png

 

 

You're right. 2010/2013 style conditions are some way away.

Yet as many have said many a time - the moderated uppers still provide snow potential. It would require more to come together, but the return would be fruitful for some.

Edited by Kasim Awan
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