January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Frigid]

models going for a cold mid month onwards, if that actually happens then a sub 2c month is possible

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 1.3C -3.2C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Probably the low point of the month for us. Models flapping around so no prediction can be made as to what the final outcome will be. So its a question of how close can we get to average.

ae.

[Summer Sun]

1.0c to the 9th

2.5c below the 61 to 90 average
3.3c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 1.7c on the 5th, 6th & 7th
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the latest forecast and probabilities

 

At the moment, we have 84.5% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is  to 20.2% (2 days ago was 17.3%)
Above average (>4.9C) is  to 4.0% (2 days ago was 2.4%)
Below average (<3.9C) is  to 75.8% (2 days ago was 80.2%)

The above are all before corrections.

Edited January 10, 2021 by BornFromTheVoid

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield down to 1.3C -3.2C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Probably the low point of the month for us. Models flapping around so no prediction can be made as to what the final outcome will be. So its a question of how close can we get to average.

ae.

Chance could end up lower than this, if we see cold dig in and hold from mid month to the end. Next few days won't be especially mild in eastern parts including Sheffield. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 1.4C -3.1C below average, Rainfall unchanged at 7mm 8.6% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

1.2c to the 10th

2.4c below the 61 to 90 average
3.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 1.7c on the 5th, 6th & 7th
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

[damianslaw]

This milder blip looks like it won't do an awful lot of damage to the CET yes today has been mild, but conditions thereafter nearer average, perhaps just a bit above before turning cold, and quite likely very cold.. but fine boundaries, southern part of CET zone might stay out of the colder air for a bit longer.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield zooms up to 1.8C -2.7C below average, Rainfall 20.2mm 24.9% of the monthly average.

[Scorcher]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

This milder blip looks like it won't do an awful lot of damage to the CET yes today has been mild, but conditions thereafter nearer average, perhaps just a bit above before turning cold, and quite likely very cold.. but fine boundaries, southern part of CET zone might stay out of the colder air for a bit longer.

Yes but with the overall figure so low at the moment, it won't take much to do some damage. I can still see a gradual rise throughout this week. After that is still outside the reliable.

Cloud cover is going to be key this week- plenty of it across the CET zone which will mean milder nights and subsequently a rise in the CET.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Scorcher

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest projections and probabilities

 

At the moment, we have 87.9% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is  to 22.2% (2 days ago was 20.2%)
Above average (>4.9C) is  to 2.8% (2 days ago was 4.0%)
Below average (<3.9C) is  to 75.0% (2 days ago was 75.8%)

[feb1991blizzard]

1.6c the latest.

[SLEETY]

Still chance of below zero cet if the cold gets here quicker and the models maybe are underplaying the cold, just like how the met and BBC always do with cold weather, 

Edited January 12, 2021 by SLEETY

[Roger J Smith]

For continuity ...

1.6c to the 11th

2.0c below the 61 to 90 average
2.7c below the 81 to 10 average

(3.2 below the 91 to 20 average)

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Current high this month 1.7c on the 5th, 6th & 7th
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

 

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Tracking the 06z GFS guidance verbatim, I calculate the CET reaches a max of 2.5 by Monday 18th, then runs an average value of -2 for the period 19th to 28th (end of run), which would make the outcome by then 0.8 C. Assuming that might be subject to downgrades those might balance any upward movement 29th-31st which does not appear all that likely (again, GFS verbatim, reality might be something entirely different). So yes, a near or subzero CET is in the mix of possibilities.

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EWP was 13 mm to 10th but added quite a lot yesterday, I estimate at least 12 mm more, so would be at about 25 mm now,.

The ten-day projections show an average of 50 mm or more, quite heavy across the south in particular, and a lot of snow is suggested in the Midlands, east Anglia, and northern England. This would all take the EWP towards an outcome of 75 mm or more by the 22nd, and maps beyond that are rather dry and cold, but that seems highly subject to variation when we get closer to that period. EWP seems likely to be heading towards 100 mm or higher.

 

[summer blizzard]

I would be astounded if we actually got below 2010 but we have a fair chance given the output recently. 1987 and 1985 at 0.8C are the next targets.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

My projection, using the GFS, has the CET at 2.7C to the 17th. 
For a sub zero finish (before corrections) we'll need the average from the 18th to 31st to be less than -3.0C. This has only happened twice before, in 1776 and 1795.

[Timmytour]

21 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I would be astounded if we actually got below 2010 but we have a fair chance given the output recently. 1987 and 1985 at 0.8C are the next targets.

 

To be honest, just to see an end to a run of 10 years during which the coldest month we've had was a March would be nice! That must be a pretty unique run in over 350 years of monthly CET measurements!.

There's a good deal of encouragements from the models to hope this run does finally come to an end, but, at the same time, there is still enough volatility in them not to warrant calling an end to it just yet..... 

 

[Frigid]

I think we are overdue a sub zero January, last time it happened was in 1979. Not saying it will happen but if the models play out in our favour with a bitterly cold end to the month, its possible. ngl i wouldn't rly mind a January in the 1s, that would be nice 

[damianslaw]

Yes, benchmark is Jan 2010, good chance we might come in colder than that month, next are 1985 and 1987 a much taller order but you never know. I remember rejoicing when Jan 2010 arrived after a long run of mild or very mild Januaries since 1997 with the exception of 2001 and 2009 which were cold but not especially so.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 1.9C -2.6C below average, Rainfall 20.4mm 25.2% of the monthly average.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Goes to show how one can’t visually describe the weather by just going on/looking at the CET of a month.  A low well below average CET could be similar to this month with the weather being constantly quite chilly but nothing stark.  Or it could be generally average with a burst of real deep cold and blizzards for week to bring it to low CET territory. 
 

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Scorcher]

15 hours ago, Frigid said:

I think we are overdue a sub zero January, last time it happened was in 1979. Not saying it will happen but if the models play out in our favour with a bitterly cold end to the month, its possible. ngl i wouldn't rly mind a January in the 1s, that would be nice 

No chance of a sub-zero month if the ECM is on the money this morning. The GFS wouldn't deliver anywhere near the depth of cold required either.

[Roger J Smith]

Delayed, but not denied ... for continuity 

 

For continuity ...

1.9c to the 12th

1.7c below the 61 to 90 average
2.4c below the 81 to 10 average

(2.9 below the 91 to 20 average)

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Current high this month 1.9c on the 12th
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

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EWP still appears to be heading to an outcome above 80 mm at least, if not above 100, here's an update of all scoring that would occur for a compromise estimate of 88.8 mm (the decimal to avoid ties) ... you'll find all tables updated including the all-time scoring (scroll to the right in the attached excel scoring file) ... of course these are quite rough estimates, if you think we'll finish well below or above 88.8, you can count ranks between your landing spot and that value, and estimate what difference it might make for your score down the road. 

At this point I think there's maybe a better chance of going over 89 than under, if the milder scenarios win out in the model wars. 

Nothing much can be said with any certainty about the CET, as BFTV says above, 2.7 in a few days then maybe a slight dip later next week, it all depends on what happens after that whether we go down into the lower realms of recent January CET, or back up to more familiar territory. For what it's worth, the last time any January finished at 2 point anything in the CET was 1997 (2.5). 

 

EWP2020_21.xlsx

Edited January 15, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 1.8C -2.7C below normal. Rainfall 38mm 46.9% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

2.1c to the 13th

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
2.2c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 2.1c on the 13th
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

Edited January 14, 2021 by Summer Sun