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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

Paul

By Paul
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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

The low pressure due around Saturday or Sunday will determine how quickly we enter

the colder airstream.At the present that is still to be finalised but cold it will be on Christmas 

Day,after that let’s hope gfs is bang on with its charts right out to the end.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Love the evolution of the control run...

anim_uvx3.thumb.gif.457bcc9cde18a1a6d1de2e4029f31a18.gifanim_sej6.thumb.gif.b777f43799792d074945187fb3a538ee.gif

 

 

 

Yes - control - genuine stonker territory there.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think EC 46 updates tonight ...

It will be rolling out around 9 or so mate..i will bring you an update later,if its dodgy I will leave it to someone else..

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

It will be rolling out around 9 or so mate..i will bring you an update later,if its dodgy I will leave it to someone else..

You would only be the messenger

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

5 didn’t topple Forgive me for picking a one off great chart but it’s been a tough day. My grandad openly admitted to the whole family he’s addicted to Viagra, no one is taking it harder than my Nana.  

751C79BE-002D-4862-8368-389E1B2D9041.png

Edited by That ECM
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mean looks good...

 

image.thumb.png.462ceab5b127af8acc9e171fb06475de.png

Cheers mate,sweet NH profile,and here's a look at things closer to home.

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mean looks good...

 

It's a belter NWS...

12z v's 00z 

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.c216ea49a2664c1d585dca96edc5e816.gif2291151_EDH1-240(1).thumb.gif.9f0d09a778f6becd6c6c01de75d59e56.gif200.thumb.gif.6267ce27d4bdb7ac003bf4712e9098b8.gif

sharper downstream trough=more amp in the Atlantic.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
forgot full stop.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Nice ens,and the mean is down on the 0z run....ooooosssshhhhaaaa

graphe0_00_282_90___.png

graphe0_00_279_74___.gif

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM 12z mean and spread:

58F9EA21-964E-4FA3-B4D2-8CBAAED5701A.thumb.png.4b7eb3b046a18340ec4addc12b2540f5.png822FCAC5-795C-4AE1-A213-0C147534235C.thumb.png.26322b0e4cf0d1a9da79b958861a1606.png

Looks good as a mean but considerable uncertainty over the minor vortex lobe Canada, and - of course - the Atlantic ridge details, will take more runs to nail this one, for sure.  Will be interested to see the clusters.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z mean and spread:

58F9EA21-964E-4FA3-B4D2-8CBAAED5701A.thumb.png.4b7eb3b046a18340ec4addc12b2540f5.png822FCAC5-795C-4AE1-A213-0C147534235C.thumb.png.26322b0e4cf0d1a9da79b958861a1606.png

Looks good as a mean but considerable uncertainty over the minor vortex lobe Canada, and - of course - the Atlantic ridge details, will take more runs to nail this one, for sure.  Will be interested to see the clusters.

Here you go Mike...

20201214195708-a9af0720bbd92a7b39609446432d10f6d5ffbfa5.thumb.png.a53f774be5ed3e020f4bbd4927887a5c.png

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here you go Mike...

20201214195708-a9af0720bbd92a7b39609446432d10f6d5ffbfa5.thumb.png.a53f774be5ed3e020f4bbd4927887a5c.png

 

Thanks Si!  Much earlier than we used to get them from Iceland!  At least they’ve been able to distinguish two clusters tonight, the first one is really good, the second one is pants.  Given this is T264+, it kind of highlights the uncertainty that exists at T240.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

I've mentioned this previously but we really need to see as much energy as possible dropping into Europe day 7/8..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Thanks Si!  Much earlier than we used to get them from Iceland!  At least they’ve been able to distinguish two clusters tonight, the first one is really good, the second one is pants.  Given this is T264+, it kind of highlights the uncertainty that exists at T240.  

Funny how these can be interpreted differently. I thought the 2nd cluster was decent. Not as good as the first but there is a low anomaly in Europe on that 2nd cluster which is never a bad thing. Heights possibly gathering to our immediate NE too

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Interesting from EPS it doesn’t truly flatten things out as previous suites have done.

2CE9240C-354E-4ECC-97BC-8037B67AA356.thumb.gif.e8bf7bc6a4026cce6e51255358774225.gif

Maybe clearer just with mean MSLP going from flat westerly to westnorthwesterly. Far in FI but would be a good trend to start. 

0541C3DC-45F5-40F0-B261-3207CC7B6113.thumb.png.0719b4ee70bf6be90aebd5ceb43e68c7.png>7023213A-97CB-4F04-A4E1-1203BDA81288.thumb.png.77ac7d4c66a32fcde1da1790c853b93d.png

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Funny how these can be interpreted differently. I thought the 2nd cluster was decent. Not as good as the first but there is a low anomaly in Europe on that 2nd cluster which is never a bad thing. Heights possibly gathering to our immediate NE too

Yes, it was the fact that it went down the toilet late doors, worth posting the clusters before these ones T192-T240:

165C1EC0-5823-42B1-8F39-9550120022E7.thumb.png.2e84f7951c9997d18eab3a582f9f45e3.png

But as the blurb states if there is only 1 identifiable cluster the EPS member closest to the mean is shown, so maybe doesn’t add anything over the (very positive) ECM mean we’ve seen earlier.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Jeeze this winter model watching is relentless, in particular if there is some potential to be seen. 

Even the gaps between Op runs is filled in part by the means and tonight when we are digesting EC46 the 18z will start to trickle out..

Hardcore geeks is what we are

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted
2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Excellent update from EC46. Europe cold after Christmas.

20201214201338-4cb82d8a2410b3de5a8c6e6bf9c0086dc0a70bd0.png

20201214201350-f38fe0ebf9d524579c607f98e2feed71607ee901.png

20201214201404-c4049b0b14afa41d8c991ddc236e7509302fe53b.png

Hmmm, very good heights at high latitude, chance of an extended blocked spell. Lots of options on the table right now and not many really rubbish ones.  I might want to see how this pans out before wishing a SSW on us to shuffle the deck...

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Excellent update from EC46. Europe cold after Christmas.

20201214201338-4cb82d8a2410b3de5a8c6e6bf9c0086dc0a70bd0.png

20201214201350-f38fe0ebf9d524579c607f98e2feed71607ee901.png

20201214201404-c4049b0b14afa41d8c991ddc236e7509302fe53b.png

Likely serious vortex stress too...

One can only hope..

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

Looking further afield like i did yesterday and here is the Iceland pressure graphs...

today's 12z v's yesterday's 12z,the mean nearly topping out at 1025,certainly an upgrade from yesterday's 1020

graphe4_1000___-17.9245283019_64.6558704453_.thumb.png.95596b63c70025397159d111210798d7.pnggraphe4_1000___-16.875_65.25_.thumb.png.8faab16aca11e361b7b3458f0792a988.png

the ECM for the same location but obviously it doesn't go out that far(25th).

graphe1_00_0_0_-18.2075471698_64.3319838057_.thumb.png.f5c2e0f0fe30463b4609a15c5b53da3f.png

of course all subject to change but this is why we are here...discussing what changes there are

off to catch up on some other things now,i will be back for the 18z that's for sure

Later's.

 

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