Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

JMA at T192:

Better aligned, but at this range there is going to be an envelope of possibilities about the exact direction of the cold plunge when the northerly hits.  It is as well to be thankful that the synoptic pattern now seems nailed, and we can start to understand the detail of how that might affect the UK, and different regions of the UK over the next few days.  

Yep  JMA  pick of the bunch for me.  Much more East  with colder uppers flooding down.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Precious little snow away from elevation on that ECM run. I'd say 150m needed for anything wintry. 

Dire dire uppers considering the time of year and synoptic pattern.

Hardly max temps on 28th very cold in north position of lows within flow highly uncertain we don’t want them towards SW as you see on day 8 encourages milder Atlantic flow in south.

[Valleyboy]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

No... because you're real name is Doris Stokes!

Come back to me when it’s raining cats and dogs next week

[swfc]

240 ec is extremely good, bye atlantic

[northwestsnow]

Crikey I hope jules216 isn't watching EC det roll out ...

[Djdazzle]

Far too much over analysis going on. The broad pattern is encouraging for cold. Exact details will be resolved over time. Pointless predicting rain, sleet or snow at this range.

[TSNWK]

2020 brings in another unexpected... netweather coldies now looking for a little yes amplication upstream...

ECM tends to get a little excited on amplify situations although had been dragged kicking and screaming these past couple of days.. maybe this 12z is like a rebound effect when it had to follow suit on increasing amplifier signals and it will be little yes keen and excited next run...

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, WxHerts said:

Ah only now are people beginning to wake up to the very real possibility of a setup that is just too far west for us to reel in the goods...ECM is majority cold rain, GFS is majority sleet.

It hasn't even happened yet and people are already calling precipitation type in a rare and very hard to forecast setup.

Yes, uppers are a bit of a concern. Little we can do about that and they can, as is already happening with the 24th and 25th, upgrade nearer the time. Also, the pattern is too far west. Again, this could change for worse or for better, no doubt other data sets within the GFS, ECM etc will show examples of an easterly shift.

We have a setup so far away from zonality at a very good point of the year. Let's enjoy the rollercoaster it WILL bring rather than lament every possible negative we can before we've even clipped in our seatbelts

Edited December 20, 2020 by Steel City Skies

[Kasim Awan]

ECM 240h is a far cry from a breakdown.. Primed to produce immobilized trough energy shunting south east..

[Leo97t]

First time in living memory that the ECM has capitulated to such an extent. As others have said we need a big eastwards shift, weirdly similar pattern to early December 

[North East Blizzard]

I'd be amazed if up North we don't see some of the white stuff over the next few weeks, 850's rarely above -5 and 2m temps barely above 2 degrees until more scatter further on in the run. 

[Valleyboy]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Far too much over analysis going on. The broad pattern is encouraging for cold. Exact details will be resolved over time. Pointless predicting rain, sleet or snow at this range.

Isn’t that why we are on this forum?

[Mike Poole]

Just one more thought on the ECM, here T240:

Look west.  Where on earth are bad things going to come from in that direction?  If we miss out on this event snow wise then more should follow, there is no sign of anything to drive weather over the Atlantic.  

[Scott Ingham]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

GFS doubters are looking very silly now   this could be a massive triumph for this model maybe its finest hour....

Anyone hes followed the models religiously would have called it. I have no idea why but the GFS loves Atlantic Heights

[Valleyboy]

1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

First time in living memory that the ECM has capitulated to such an extent. As others have said we need a big eastwards shift, weirdly similar pattern to early December 

Has it?

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Valleyboy said:

Isn’t that why we are on this forum?

Yes, but some folk only post one sided opinions as if they are certain it will turn out that way. They may be correct, but equally they may not.

[phil nw.]

I guess we were hoping the ecm wouldn't follow the gfs in showing the pattern too far west. 

It is a really promising nh profile overall so this outcome would be really frustrating for snow lovers. 

There is still time for an adjustment, let's hope it goes a little way east. 

[Vikos]

With this kind of 850s winds, snow is far away for anywhere in ME

 

[Scott Ingham]

20 minutes ago, weirpig said:

yep  taken in isolation  we need a shunt East     loads of time  for that to happen.  But as you say that run  brings avrage temps and rain.

Heres where yet again you have to factor in model bias. As we hit 96 and under expect corrections East. We need to nail the high first. Dont panic. Were in a tremendous place 

[damianslaw]

Waited until ECM came out this evening before giving my first initial thoughts on the christmas period, 24th -26th, as it is now wholly within the reliable (just), this being 6 days max.

What have we:

Christmas Eve - generally cold for all under a ridge, frost early and later, hopefully lots of blue sky and sunshine, perhaps a rogue wintry shower in far SE parts.

Christmas Day - ridge shifts south and allows a westerly atlantic feed to move in, looking rather chilly and cloudy, sunniest conditions in the SE. Rather average temps, but far far far more seasonal than many a recent Christmas Day, I'll take it.

Boxing Day - major changes afoot, azores high sucked NW allowing a chilly NW flow to invade, at first it will bring in slightly milder uppers, so most likely rain for many away from high ground, before we see much colder air move in to the NW, so possibility of snow showers for far NW by close of day.

This is as far as we can comment on likely events, uncertainty thereafter. ECM and GFS both consistent in theme, trough dropping through the UK on the 27th, and similar to 2-4 Dec, coming unstuck over the UK with heights to the NW and east. On that occasion we had the models projecting things to be further west than verified, and 9 times out of 10 come the eleventh hour, things do shift eastwards, so everyone raising comments that it is too far west.. hold your horses for now.. notwithstanding very cold thicknesses are being shown and a slack airstream, to my eyes ripe for major wintry precipitation and not just places with height. I say it won't be until Wednesday at the earliest we can call with any confidence likely developments post Boxing Day - that's 3 more days.. 

Edited December 20, 2020 by damianslaw

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, North East Blizzard said:

I'd be amazed if up North we don't see some of the white stuff over the next few weeks, 850's rarely above -5 and 2m temps barely above 2 degrees until more scatter further on in the run. 

Indeed, a lot imby posts. I live in arguably one of the worst places for a northerly but  nhp is quality. Here we are last in line for some fun but we are very patient and what follows could be fun. some places will see snow from this I’m sure and I look forward to seeing some myself but I enjoy going in the regionals and see adults excited as child posting pics of snow. Could move of course but I love the south coast too much

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just one more thought on the ECM, here T240:

Look west.  Where on earth are bad things going to come from in that direction?  If we miss out on this event snow wise then more should follow, there is no sign of anything to drive weather over the Atlantic.  

Its likely to be just wet. Ural high stoping any real advances of the lows so they just sit over us and fill.

Likely to be cold, and some white stuff about if you head further north or better elevation. But many in this thread don't live in such places so seeing a T240 chart show large amounts of blocking but sod all real cold doesn't envoke a good response. 

PV is in tatters and we're still struggling to get a half decent cold spell!

Edited December 20, 2020 by Snowman.

[Froze were the Days]

11 minutes ago, swfc said:

240 ec is extremely good, bye atlantic

Well fancy that! day 10 is good...if I had a pound for everytime

[Chesil View]

Perhaps it's because it's been two and half years since the beast from the East that a lot of posters are impatient and bad mouthing synoptically excellent runs because of what they see a poor uppers.

What really needs to be born in mind and what I think that the likes of Scott, Catacol, S4Lancia have alluded to is the fact that we are looking at the very beginning of a slow  steady decline into quite a memorable spell and quite possibly a memorable winter. I know that patience isn't a popular trait in this I've Got to have it now instant gratification world but in this case. I believe patience could pay really big dividends down the line.

[Anthony Burden]

Lots to wait and see regarding low pressure track from the north,both gfs and ecm will

have a different chart tomorrow regarding exact position of the low.That I would wager a bet

on.Any contenders.