Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Ventnor Viking]

30 minutes ago, terrier said:

Some really nice looking output from the gfs & ecm this morning but why is it always at +8 days away. And one doubt I do have is why aren’t the met office on board with these crazy looking runs we are seeing. So until we see them come on board we need to keep our feet firmly on the ground. Because as we all know if it can go wrong for the U.K. it normally will. I’m taking these charts with a huge pinch of salt or grit which ever you prefer lol. 

I totally agree, I've probably sounded like a Grinch in here recently, but how many times have we been lead up the garden path. 

[ITSY]

Variation on a theme into FI, that's all we can ask for whether or not FI contains marginal upgrades or downgrades.

The crucial thing is  the maintanence of the medium term signal for height rises into southern greenland, within the high resolution time frame. If we can build on this support through the 06z ensembles and the cross model 12z, that would be great.

Forgive my hesitance, once bitten twice shy, I'm still anxious to see things move through the timescales, particularly when only observing GFS at 06/18z. Very much looking for the metoffice to come round to this signal over the coming few days. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by ITSY

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The government should be praying for a cold snowy festive period .

Far better for people to either be stuck at home and not mixing or as in members here outside playing in the snow !

 

Given that its 2020 any Snow would probably be 'yellow' 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

The GFS 06 run is the computer equivalent of a pig with lipstick. Looks dramatic but delivers nothing but snow to high ground and a few frosts. In fairness we can probably ignore anything after day 9 as its no more likely to verify than the 00Z was. The irony is that the distinctly non dramatic easterly that occurs by day 13 is by far the coldest chart.

All of that said, the situation is not hopeless by any means. We are not stuck with a slug over Spain and a rampant PV and things do have scope to improve.

I agree. Synoptic wise the charts were amazing post Christmas.  Then I looked at the 850s which were -5s or there abouts for us most and I felt underwhelmed! Which is bad really when we think of the usual crud. 

I'm also concerned that 06z was a little flatter bin early stages.. recovered as run progressed but I would prefer improvement early in and take my chances later on.

[blizzard81]

33 minutes ago, Vikos said:

EC clusters +240h

Hmmm, so the op in the most attractive cluster which is only 15%.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I can't keep up with this place...nearly 15 pages since I last checked.. I mentioned last nights EC46 mean and how it seems reluctant to change the pattern at anytime over several weeks...hmmmm...not so sure about that...The control run is bringing in some serious cold in the second half of January.. we have Heights extending from Greenland to scandy and some proper cold locked in, Could it be onto something!! An SSW early next month for instance...I will be keeping an eye on the control run in the coming days,but it sure looks good later..

 

[Duane S.]

48 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Don't like this run especially with the PV setting shop in Greenland 

Get it a rest. In your constant desperation for this to all go wrong (which it absolutely may well of course), you have clearly now started hallucinating

[chionomaniac]

30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What do you reckon about the strat? - have you seen those extreme temperatures right up top, that would surely be record breaking for temperature, all we need is that to translate into -ve u winds lower down and wollop - job done.

No change with my previous thoughts on the strat. I stuck my neck out and went for 10 Jan as the date for an SSW. I have no reason to change that currently

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, Day_10 said:

COBRA charts

I don't think COBRA meetings get called for wet snow over the hills.

Ridiculous exaggerations from posters in here, as usual. There's nothing significantly snowy or cold for the majority of lowland UK in that model run, and it's academic at this range anyway. Nice synoptically, but talk of snowstorms is such nonsense. People never learn and set themselves up for a fall when future model updates show less wintry potential. 

[ITSY]

16 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Variation on a theme into FI, that's all we can ask for whether or not FI contains marginal upgrades or downgrades.

The crucial thing is  the maintanence of the medium term signal for height rises into southern greenland, within the high resolution time frame. If we can build on this support through the 06z ensembles and the cross model 12z, that would be great.

Forgive my hesitance, once bitten twice shy, I'm still anxious to see things move through the timescales, particularly when only observing GFS at 06/18z. Very much looking for the metoffice to come round to this signal over the coming few days. 

You can see why the Met would have trouble nailing their colours to a mast. The GEFS are very mixed by 192/204. Although the Control sticks rigidly to the Op, only 5 or 6 ensemble members go for the same kind of advection up the south western tip of Greenland - there's plenty of variety in there (mid Atlantic blocks, UK blocks, topplers etc) at the same range - but the operational scenario is far from guaranteed.

Obviously I hope it builds support but we need to allow more runs and cross model support before considering this a banker. And, just to add some nuance to prior posts, the  operational charts we're seeing are synoptically fabulous but not yet desperately cold - not saying this to inflame but rather to manage expectations.

Meteociel - Panel GEFS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by ITSY

[sebastiaan1973]

in the GFS ENS there are a just a few members following the oper. Control though seems to join the party.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

No change with my previous thoughts on the strat. I stuck my neck out and went for 10 Jan as the date for an SSW. I have no reason to change that currently

That is my birthday - what a present that would be!!!

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

in the GFS ENS there are a just a few members following the oper. Control though seems to join the party.

Which is why the mean does not look no where near as good mate!!!cant wait for the 12zs!!upgrade or downgrade!!

[offerman]

Don't get too excited, the charts do look good but we need firming up in the 4-5 day timeframe . 
More members coming on board would be a bonus at this conjuncture to add to the optimism .

 

Fingers and toes crossed. 
would be so nice to have a colder possibly flake or two Christmas.

i remember on so many occasions especially in the 80s when Christmases would be relatively mild but then it would get much colder from Boxing Day to New Year and I could never understand why it often seemed to happen that way as opposed to any cold actually on Christmas. 
 

maybe this year will be one of the rare occasions we can have proper cold.

 

I remember a few Christmases where it was white with frost over the last 20  years. So to see you flake or two would be amazing.

or if we can get a load of snow any time over the whole festive period up to New Year would also be great. 

[STRiZZY]

A lot of grinches in this thread right now . Tons of positivity in the models over the last 12 hours. I think a few people are focusing on their backyard a bit too much. 
 

Synoptics are what’s important as of now, not details like show charts being lackluster at 200hrs. Granted it could all vanish at any given moment but I think there’s plenty of data supporting posters that are excited about the possibilities heading into a Christmas/NYE. 

[mb018538]

I think this ECM pressure ensemble is the biggest outlier I've ever seen....nearly 50mb below the mean!!

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Vikos said:

EC clusters +240h

Rather sobering clusters.

Unlikely we'll get a cold spell based on those, more likely topplers.

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Rather sobering clusters.

Unlikely we'll get a cold spell based on those, more likely topplers.

I just would say that there multiple option and the path to cold isn’t clear yet... poking in the mist

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Rather sobering clusters.

Unlikely we'll get a cold spell based on those, more likely topplers.

Agree.  I keep on banging the note about the 500mb height charts posted by Mushy / John - which currently have  an indication of westerly flow as option as days 8/14 go along - off course just another forecast, but a stable amongst chaos I think to keep feet on the ground... pretty reliable ( sadly ) I've found over the years.

Edited December 18, 2020 by TSNWK

[Mark wheeler]

Time for the mighty Navgem to have an outing . Could be worse for Xmas time . This the 6z

Edited December 18, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Rather sobering clusters.

Unlikely we'll get a cold spell based on those, more likely topplers.

I wouldn’t worry too much. Those clusters change as often as the Covid Tiers. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Vikos said:

EC clusters +240h

Cluster 1 is what the EC46 mean shows literally every run...from weekn1 to week 6 every update,every bloody year...someone needs to tell the guys at Headquarters to unfreeze it and release the pause button.

[Methuselah]

Well, peeps, it's this time of year again; and, with the models showing those type of synoptics, it's time to adopt the Net-weather winter position... the NWWP!

[snowking]

I'm always encouraged by a cluster when both the Op and Control are singing from the same hymnsheet - often these two runs can resolve the mesoscale features which go on to have a huge effect on the latter part of the runs better than the rest of the suite due to their higher resolution.

Taking a look at the wider view of the 0z EPS clusters:

To be honest, by +240 clusters 2 and 4 (remembering cluster 4 contains both the control and op) look very similar to me, and I would personally group those together. If anything I am even more encouraged by cluster 2 than I am cluster 4.

[markw2680]

34 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I don't think COBRA meetings get called for wet snow over the hills.

Ridiculous exaggerations from posters in here, as usual. There's nothing significantly snowy or cold for the majority of lowland UK in that model run, and it's academic at this range anyway. Nice synoptically, but talk of snowstorms is such nonsense. People never learn and set themselves up for a fall when future model updates show less wintry potential. 

Finally a down to earth post, some people just set them selves up for a massive fall, yes of course we all want cold and snow but let’s be realistic here, after all it is the uk