Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Allseasons-Si]

24 minutes ago, WxHerts said:

B..but I though ICON was best? Great analysis, I would add a fourth point in that ECM's solutions, even if very wrong, often simply appear less outrageous when put side by side next to GFS - as in I'd say it's much rarer for ECM to churn out those random, 50mb drop in 24h type bowling ball lows range that GFS is infamous for. Oh and speaking of ICON, why hasn't it rolled out yet?

Good question as there is no error message on Meteociel!

as for this morning and seems no one has mentioned it,the 06z run was more amplified than the 00z

06z 120 v's 00z 126.

i was looking forward to the 12z ICON as it's the first afternoon run out

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Weather vane]

32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think there are 3 reasons for this.  First, the evidence, from the verification stats the GFS is not as good a model as ECM:

At day 5 it is behind the ECM, UKMO and just behind the GEM (CMC on chart).

Secondly, it runs 4 times a day so gets more airtime.  Thirdly, all its output is freely available, whereas only limited output is available free from some of the other models.  So you see more output from GFS on here for those reasons.  

 

Thanks Mike; where do you get those verification stats graphs?

[Frosty.]

I made reference to bearing fruit in my previous post and interestingly the GEFS 6z produced this peach for crimbo day...I won’t bother with the pear shaped ones ...but I can’t ignore the cherry picking! ....anyhoo..some of the recent Gfs output have left me shaken, but not stirred!...hopefully the 12z runs will produce more of these...     

 

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Good question as there is no error message on Meteociel!

as for this morning and seems no one has mentioned it,the 06z run was more amplified than the 00z

06z 120 v's 00z 126.

i was looking forward to the 12z as it's the first afternoon run out

 

12z is running on metiociel 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

Thanks Mike; where do you get those verification stats graphs?

NCEP EMC Global Model Verification

WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Click ‘go’ next to heights for the H500 anomaly correlation stats that I posted.  

[That ECM]

T144 Ukmo. Not a bad start.

[WxHerts]

Make no mistake, UKMO 144h is a gorgeous chart

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

12z is running on metiociel 

I have edited my post swfc^

i was referring to the ICON. 

[mountain shadow]

UKMO looks great!

Beaten to it.

Edited December 16, 2020 by mountain shadow

[Weather vane]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

NCEP EMC Global Model Verification

WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Click ‘go’ next to heights for the H500 anomaly correlation stats that I posted.  

[Man With Beard]

UKMO now getting close to the period where the Atlantic High may build. Will it go on to build or topple? Jury's out for now.

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes as other's have just said,the UKMO is very good and i can explain why...

12z v's 00z(slight timing obs)

...it's more amplified downstream off the ESB(eastern seaboard),this would enable better upstream amplification in the Atlantic.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 Ukmo. Not a bad start.

Agree, heights cutting back into Labrador too so should be a decent ridge 

[weirpig]

Difference  on the gfs  reagrding the low on the eastern side of America.  much deeper further west

[Ali1977]

UKMO better than the GFS around NE Canada , but let’s see where the GFS goes.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Weather vane said:

Although I am new to posting here, I have been following this amazing forum for quite a few years now. One thing that has constantly piqued my interest is that when it comes to major negative comments about how a particular model is performing, it seems like >90% of these comments are directed at the GFS (very negative comments of ECM charts seem way less frequent), and almost always when the chart doesn't show what is being hoped for. I have to admit I find this complete dismissal bias somewhat surprising since GFS charts are posted all the time, and used as evidence to support an interpretation.

I have no vested interest whatsoever in any model; just trying to find my feet with regards to how they all compare, which ones perform better in certain scenarios, but less well in other scenarios. In the critical 7-10 day forecasting timescale that so many of us focus on, how often is the GFS model completely wrong or very inconsistent on a day-to-day basis, and how does this compare with ECM - is it that much better ? I imagine this is not easy to define empirically, though there must be studies addressing it.?

Not trying to upset the apple cart here, just trying to wade my way through learning about models and chart interpretation.

 

The thing about the GFS for me is how it will stubbornly stick to a solution for days and then suddenly, often D5, do an about turn. It's nowhere near as good at Scandi Highs as ECM/UKMO, and less consistent with getting many other pattern types right.

However, when it comes to seeing previously unforecasted disturbances coming out of Canada, it is often a day or two ahead of the other models, I find (though not always). Absolutely do not ignore the GFS in this set-up, regardless of the verification stats.

[frosty ground]

The Jet is steaming East gonna flatten any ridge very quickly 

[Ali1977]

Not great uppers not wedge at 168, but we should take comfort in the UKMO at 144. If the ECM follows the UKMO confidence should still be pretty high on something more potent than this GFS run - so far anyway!! 

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO better than the GFS around NE Canada , but let’s see where the GFS goes.

The way of @Jon Snow Pear.

[TSNWK]

Gfs 168 mixed reviews. Does not look as good around Greenland, however the Atlantic heights do look sharper and the trough that ended up towards Eastern Europe last time appears to dropping more south around our neck of the woods... which might help prevent any topple ?
 

Edited December 16, 2020 by TSNWK

[Allseasons-Si]

The ridge is going up but it is painful watching and is delayed a tad.

06z for comparison.

[Daniel]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ridge is going up but it is painful watching and is delayed a tad.

06z for comparison.

It's gonna topple to much energy coming out of the states. Yet anouther run which is different to its previous. 

[Thunder and Lightning]

The 12z GFS shows quite an amplified pattern across the US moving into the Atlantic

It looks like things may be trying to erode the ridge but we will see how things play out further through the run

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ridge is going up but it is painful watching and is delayed a tad.

06z for comparison.

1st attempt appears to topple this run.. but wait there’s another go just behind  just to keep us going..

Edited December 16, 2020 by TSNWK

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

The 12z GFS shows quite an amplified pattern across the US moving into the Atlantic

It looks like things may be trying to erode the ridge but we will see how things play out further through the run

It's a concern that it's such a low pressure trying to break though to the UK 

UKMO is a better run because of this