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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Maybe not very exciting but that would be a festive Xmas the closest to white ground would probably be from frost. 

    EB45DFE3-5E87-44C8-AE20-819CF7869AE7.thumb.png.a514c06e6687755cdf41a133db1bd2b0.png8D4A1F5E-2209-4ECD-AF27-A3D5BE70691F.thumb.png.1ab0fe97fed21d7f49144b095be65dde.png

    I would happily take this chart for Christmas. Cold and crisp weather would be far better than mild, wet and windy. Of course if we could shift the high further west that would be great as well.:santa-emoji:

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    Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

    Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

    Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 minute ago, Johnp said:

    Can you stop posting random charts from random ensembles?

    Bye then

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I’m liking the ECM 0z op / mean trend longer term, gradually becoming colder with increasing chances of snow / ice / frost during Christmas!...BANK!:santa-emoji:

    B94A0131-1148-46CD-BFC3-6AFEC6555F3A.thumb.gif.d67be216fa96295a0962d4df2b660710.gif17AB5833-5026-4C64-89D7-C3B1C8AD8F07.thumb.gif.ad38f9f0514fd2b97487fd5e9c082dca.gif3B12E1F4-01AD-49FA-B550-04BA61FD62D2.thumb.gif.8adf6a51f0ef98d2b79d662838127346.gifBD718947-B3A7-41C8-82FE-8B33675C8AF9.thumb.gif.d68d61ec6972c8dd27c6137855e0318e.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    no need to drown everyone in Christmas Day's sorrow

    It's 11 days away and we all know how good models are 11 days away

    It would be better if we look at last year's charts.

    This year's charts are better than last Year's.

    Last Years

    image.thumb.png.b3ff47a8b7ea3feccd05199516d1b58b.png

    This Year's

    image.thumb.png.312545c822f064ab19fe67509375163e.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    That Sir! Is very bumpy jet stream around the globe.. at the distance the details are bound to chop and change but I’ll take that for now and be happy to take my chances on where the dust settles nearer the time.

    image.thumb.png.e0a3551cd69a5c067611572d498b9aa1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    An excellent NH profile and although in FI, this has been the trend of the last few days:

    gfsnh-0-330.thumb.png.991e3f55179d58253bb0af089a49035e.pnggfsnh-1-336.thumb.png.9abd045edc84a47c16bbfa24d8528e31.png

    Thanks to the disruption from the Arctic high the colder tPV has been dispersed. On this run a great cold pool for N Europe and Russia. The UK at the edge of the real cold so if we do get this synoptic outcome we are going to need some luck to get a better snowy outlook.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    What's the issue? As long as it's model discussion

    Passing off old model runs as current ones is absolutely discouraged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    I couldnt resist not to post this image. Here is a comparison of GWO forecast vs same progression in 2017, the difference is about 3 weeks later now then 2017, the anomalies are a near mirror image for when GWO was in weak Nino atractor phases 5 to 8. This would add some validity to what the experts taught us here for years like @chionomaniac @Tamara @Glacier Point @Catacol

    gcarYPSS.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    i could only access those runs  

    don't worry i'm blamed for everything

    Just try and put some context behind the charts you are posting.

    If the next run is already underway, probably best to wait for that to complete instead of posting charts from the previous run (just to avoid confusion).

    Ultimately though, people can choose to not view your comments - so do not worry too much.

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    26 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    I would happily take this chart for Christmas. Cold and crisp weather would be far better than mild, wet and windy. Of course if we could shift the high further west that would be great as well.:santa-emoji:

    Understatement or send it retrogressing!!!!! 😐 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    GEFS 06z mean at day 10 looks great! 

    253AD8AD-BEC4-45AC-81FF-6DFD48A67230.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Parts of Canada look chilly over the next two weeks (2m temps):

    d0-8>anim_xto4.gifd8-16> anim_rzl5.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    8 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    GEFS 06z mean at day 10 looks great! 

    253AD8AD-BEC4-45AC-81FF-6DFD48A67230.png

    That is actually a really good mean from GFs day 10. Probably the best I’ve seen in a while, there’s a marked ridge there up into Greenland. Reasonably sharp for a 10 day mean.

    Also nice to see a mean like this at day 10 not out at day 16! 
     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Hey gang..plenty of juicy 6z ens from GFS again..the cold Xmas day options are gaining momentum...remember when Borris addressed the nation all those months back...you must stay at home! Wouldn't it be great if he had to repeat that in the next few weeks due to different circumstances..😉

    gens-1-1-264.png

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    gens-12-0-264.png

    gens-15-0-264.png

    gens-17-1-276.png

    gens-21-1-264.png

    tenor-1.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    A good low pressure around the 21st and we've got below 0oc temperatures they may be far out but we've got a big of Snow at the end of the rainy Tunnel.

    image.thumb.png.a98148046df5df67bf2c2bf6b8fe8202.png

    image.thumb.png.ec4e461ae10e69bd257f3287ee69645c.png

    Very soon low Pressure to the North a good day for Scots.

    image.thumb.png.cc79dab0de43f46b802f07f930d65881.png

    Temps going below 0oc though.

    image.thumb.png.f155af5755b27d38009e781cc63bcbc7.png

    image.png

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    As some have mentioned   some of the best ens i have seen for a while   many have height rises  to varying degrees   ens 22  brings cold weather from christmas  eve  probably to the new year  with cold uppers  and lows descending down the country.   

    A cold lovers paradise.  Something to look at anyway

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    As some have mentioned   some of the best ens i have seen for a while   many have height rises  to varying degrees   ens 22  brings cold weather from christmas  eve  probably to the new year  with cold uppers  and lows descending down the country.   

    A cold lovers paradise.  Something to look at anyway

     

    Things must be looking up if your gerrin a tad excited Mark...like you say things looking much better.. Merry Xmas mate 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

    Things must be looking up if your gerrin a tad excited Mark...like you say things looking much better.. Merry Xmas mate 😁

    lol  Meet you on the beacon for some sledging  Merry christmas to you also.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Worth mentioning the ECM has some wet snow on higher ground on 23rd. Knock a degree of the temps and more areas could see something ❄️

    25CEC2D2-E41C-4D22-84F1-B033504341AD.jpeg

    12B055A0-6DB6-43A7-ACB8-ED8FFEDB1B3F.jpeg

    0BDC3E25-3392-45F1-9A6D-E621BBBE81AD.jpeg

    8EDF7387-3D8C-4B30-ABC0-99DAC73ED438.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    29 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Worth mentioning the ECM has some wet snow on higher ground on 23rd. Knock a degree of the temps and more areas could see something ❄️

    25CEC2D2-E41C-4D22-84F1-B033504341AD.jpeg

    12B055A0-6DB6-43A7-ACB8-ED8FFEDB1B3F.jpeg

    0BDC3E25-3392-45F1-9A6D-E621BBBE81AD.jpeg

    8EDF7387-3D8C-4B30-ABC0-99DAC73ED438.jpeg

    Oh no! 😉 Next it will be harmony teezing us again.. but we love it 😍

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    I often find multi-model ensembles can be helpful in picking out patterns when individual model ensemble suites are showing large spread. 

    545302015_Screenshot2020-12-14at12_51_12.thumb.png.bc0e49bc07b1d8d63b47141391f34d19.png

    Certainly a "cooling trend" on there in the extended, though only slightly, it's not overly significant especially when you factor in that we're starting from a position of above average temperatures. 

    The scatter within the EPS is large with no real signal, though perhaps very slightly skewed towards slightly below average, but certainly nothing as "significant" as the GEFS mean. I know which model I'd put more confidence in..

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