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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Such a shame shout Steve...

    I for one really enjoy his enthusiasm when explaining charts in the run up to a potential cold chase ...

    Come on Steve, dear me, I write off Winter about 4x a day!!ūü§£

    And NW members can vouch for that !!!

    He should do it more often, with early month cold snap I think same happened ūü§£ I think it‚Äôs healthy for everyone to have breaks from models... but some of us are sadly built differently.. it‚Äôs very hard to resist in winter. ūüôČ

    Need to make this on topic so P14 polar low... lock it in ! ūü§≠

    5E074607-CCA9-4589-B8DE-FA338AD8937A.thumb.png.b3f7bdb96b0b2f419788a04994e3a84b.png951A9483-BDDA-42D2-9DB5-CFCECA2BF15C.thumb.png.8d3892584fc93c1e6974040f9f1eeea4.png

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    Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

    Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

    Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Models starting to suggest a cold Christmas day (white possibly for north and west Scotland/Northern Ireland) however it's all down to how quickly a low leaving the US at about day 3 develops and then where it phases with our trough in about a week. Lots to go wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    With any cold spell that might affect the UK,until it reaches down to around +96 hours on the models then think that its NOT going to happen.

    It will save you a lot of heartache in the end,the amount of times I have seen cold spells evaporate  before they count down to the reliable timeframe in the output,yet if its mild being shown...........

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    With any cold spell that might affect the UK,until it reaches down to around +96 hours on the models then think that its NOT going to happen.

    It will save you a lot of heartache in the end,the amount of times I have seen cold spells evaporate  before they count down to the reliable timeframe in the output,yet if its mild being shown...........

    To be fair most models are only hinting at snap from north not a blockbuster 2010 style cold spell. We will see our Atlantic amplification so that’s one big hurdle overcome. My experience the models do much better with northerlies than easterlies.

    it’s unusual to see such good agreement...  

    FAE48C17-4C6B-4860-A821-996A29735060.thumb.png.e1bf35f680a9764aa9243c2bdc7a2894.pngF35D27ED-1B46-4998-A049-5AD573357970.thumb.gif.a67ccf574133ba409359339db03eab3d.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    A white christmas looking possible, a fresh day today.

    image.thumb.png.fc549e254ff3a22cec705c7a53c11025.png

    Late December Gefs looking great.

    image.thumb.png.d950c4801327e8aaa6a550870159c007.png

    Gefs Control has a great Christmas day @Steve Murr come back we've seen a great run.Polar high doing it's job.

    image.thumb.png.9b9aa3b0b655498dea569311da9ddf32.png

    To qoute @Northwest NIimage.thumb.png.4202b6bc8b52a79323bc655f9f546937.png

    Edited by Sheldon Cooper
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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    Good morning all, really informative posts as ever!

    Yes I'm not a fan of watching for cold further than 3 days off. 

    Here's the ensemble from the start of December, we had a potential snow event round the corner and loads of models were pointing to a real cold spell. I was gradually getting sucked in when, oh... uh oh... a mild GFS outlier popped up! 

    Quite simply the Atlantic is always trying to fight back and the models are very familiar with its' moves. This means that if even one or two runs show what we have today, they're probably right!

    Look at it this way, less money on heating!

    t2mLondon.png

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    9 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

    With dyslexia i thought id be bad at getting my point across. It takes me a while to reply but its actually just spelling. Maybe it does come naturally and I didn't realize but its been amazing to be made to feel so welcome and appreciated.

    Ive been a follower since 2009 in the background without summing up the guts to give my opinion.

    Believe me when I say it can lead to frustration when I read someone talking no sense and not having the confidence to give my argument against hahaha!

    Again thank you im humbled by the comments. A lot of guys in here I have had the utmost respect for. Its like having your debut season with your boyhood football club and starting off with a few goals haha! This year's Tammy Abraham!

    ¬†it may take you a while to reply how ever your posts are quality and I really do enjoy them keep up the good work continue posting thank you. ‚ėļÔłŹūüĎć

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    With any cold spell that might affect the UK,until it reaches down to around +96 hours on the models then think that its NOT going to happen.

    It will save you a lot of heartache in the end,the amount of times I have seen cold spells evaporate  before they count down to the reliable timeframe in the output,yet if its mild being shown...........

    Seeing a few posts saying "it's happening"

    I'm a fan of cold but being 11 days away I wouldn't get excited yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    43 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Heavyweight strat experts are beginning to agree that the answer is yes....but none are seeing it this side of New Year. The best end solution for us would be a split rather than displaced vortex SSW and for this to happen - and this won’t be a popular statement for some! - we could do with amplification after Xmas producing another Russian ridge. The strongest wave 2 impacts are produced this way and not from one over Greenland. So - I guess watchers here have to decide whether they want to put their faith in a shorter term mild solution with potential longer term Beast benefits (no guarantee....) via a Russkie/Scandy block or not worry about the vortex and instead seek a Greenland High over New Year in the hope of shorter term cold. For me it has to be the wave 2 end product. MetO text is suggesting a shift to mild and wet into January and if this is because we have a U.K. trough up against another Scandy or ScEuro or ideally ScRusskie high then I’m happy with that. 

    Of course the golden bullet would be for the Scandi/Russian high to be strong enough that it actually keeps the southerlies out in the Atlantic at least for a time and allows us to tap into a colder easterly/south easterly (something the GFS ensembles in the longer term are hinting at being possible) and then perhaps end up with a battleground situation. That way we obviously gain potential wave 2 impacts as well as having a short term realistic risk of snow and cold towards the back end of Dec.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    30 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Monday 14 December 500mb update

    Ec-gfs:- Only fairly small changes in both but the result means that the ridging causes the 500 flow to veer to n of w as it moves into the uk. Also for the first time in a longish time the contour heights have fallen over the uk?

    Noaa has a slightly less flat/westerly flow in the far west. The trough, in the past 24-48 hours is shown as having moving east and the minor buckle in the flow ahead also and increased very slightly. Both these are needed IF any cold air via any meridional flow east of this is to develop.

    So in summary, a slightly better looking set of charts for 6-10 days ahead with the 8-14 noaa not too different upstream. Give these charts 2-3 days and they should show a better idea of if any meridional flow and subsequent colder air is going to develop. Currently maybe 15-20% probable in my view.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Christmas day

    gens_panel_wik6.pnggens_panel_skn1.png

    Looking like an Atlantic low across the UK on Christmas Day, with the teps we could be looking at a Merry Christmas.

    Happy Xmas sorry fr my writing i'm not gonna do well on my English Gcse's:santa-emoji:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Better heights towards ESB on latest 6z Icon at the same timeframe vs 0z run although the purples just above between Eastern Canada and Western Greenland could prove detrimental?

    20201214_093625.jpg

    20201214_093644.jpg

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Of course the golden bullet would be for the Scandi/Russian high to be strong enough that it actually keeps the southerlies out in the Atlantic at least for a time and allows us to tap into a colder easterly/south easterly (something the GFS ensembles in the longer term are hinting at being possible) and then perhaps end up with a battleground situation. That way we obviously gain potential wave 2 impacts as well as having a short term realistic risk of snow and cold towards the back end of Dec.

    Not going to argue with that ūüôā¬†- would be a complex solution to allow poleward warmth as well as easterlies at lower latitudes....but it is Xmas after all and Santa owes us 10 years of backorder presents.........

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.e47796ee87bb4329e646ec2df0b064fb.png

    Well now....that's interesting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.e47796ee87bb4329e646ec2df0b064fb.png

    Well now....that's interesting!

    They do look good.  But have I read that when there is only 1 cluster we should be wary.  

    Although by my logic I had thought few clusters would mean less uncertainty?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    25 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    Good morning all, really informative posts as ever!

    Yes I'm not a fan of watching for cold further than 3 days off. 

    Here's the ensemble from the start of December, we had a potential snow event round the corner and loads of models were pointing to a real cold spell. I was gradually getting sucked in when, oh... uh oh... a mild GFS outlier popped up! 

    Quite simply the Atlantic is always trying to fight back and the models are very familiar with its' moves. This means that if even one or two runs show what we have today, they're probably right!

    Look at it this way, less money on heating!

    t2mLondon.png

    Were they? Them ens look pretty unimpressive to me they did show it milder towards mid month but nowhere to this extent. We had synoptics which looked very good, but the cold air was severely lacking what you see on ground would disappoint. I’ve not once seen solid evidence of a proper cold spell this month, and still waiting. In the outlook the air which is potentially accessible is colder so I suppose that is more interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    The path it takes will decide whether it's a hindrance or not. It's 850'are minus 5 to minus 10 and it's sat in a north to northwesterly air stream. 

    I say that's pretty polar.ūüėÄ

    It maybe pretty polar, but it's not a Polar low.

    Polar lows are only detectable/forecastable at short range, normally one or two days out, certainly not at 10 ten days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.e47796ee87bb4329e646ec2df0b064fb.png

    Well now....that's interesting!

    Am I missing something. What’s interesting a toppling ridge? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    They do look good.  But have I read that when there is only 1 cluster we should be wary.  

    Although by my logic I had thought few clusters would mean less uncertainty?

    It's nae only me, then! Surely, should the day when NWPs are anything like 100% accurate ever materialise, there would only ever be one cluster... the right one?:drunk-emoji:

    Edited by General Cluster
    Lost marbles!
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    The path it takes will decide whether it's a hindrance or not. It's 850'are minus 5 to minus 10 and it's sat in a north to northwesterly air stream. 

    I say that's pretty polar.ūüėÄ

    Agreed, on that particular run the movement from t214 to t240 suggests it’s coming at us on a NNW/SSE trajectory

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    2 minutes ago, Sky High said:

    Hi Sheldon, I saw your previous post where you stated you are only 13.

     

    It's great that you interested and taking part at such a young age, even if you are not getting it quite right at the moment. Keep up the interest lad and in time your knowledge and experience will grow. We can then start to hang on your every word, like we do many others here.

     

    Good luck with your GCSE's btw, I'm sure you'll do just fine. ūüôā

    Thanks any tips on reading into charts such as these

     image.thumb.png.f53346e4693c79ae8def14a61a5b1405.png

    and wether it contributes much.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Am I missing something. What’s interesting a toppling ridge? 

    It ain't toppling while there are low heights over Genoa 

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