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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


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Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T240 ecm and gfs. Similar, bound to be differences at that range. ECM preferred but they will both change I’m sure but as long as theme stays Christmas may feel like Christmas.😄

    CF8DC081-D376-46F3-8F6A-86AE83EDE135.png

    53ED4FE3-2731-486C-A960-FE7AE31C3C69.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC looks excellent for coldies....

     

    image.thumb.png.51c8920745c3936a35e4508db00d1ee2.png

    image.thumb.png.453fe513fd62908a7dfaf8443bb89de3.png

    Would love to see what happens next, toppler or heights in the right places? 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    The EC det is trending colder and would provide a cold Christmas 2020...

    Scotland in particular I would imagine ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I think I’d consider you more brave if you were going for a mild Christmas. Colder than 12z.

    50BD21D3-F59D-430D-A200-EB7604574F0C.thumb.png.8da7e67b98347fd38f83dfba0eff9d39.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    11 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Hi Scott

    I’ve had Last week of December as target for some time using my solar forcing method.  Any run showing  a northerly and diving N/S LP to be on near continent and Ridging to NW in time for Xmas has my backing.

     

     

    BFTP

    image.thumb.png.6d3f8001c0df4ff3c4ef822901f43262.png
     

    That’s what I’m thinking.  
    ECM
     

    image.thumb.gif.1bda40ebfd1fa1079f2ce47aac106e04.gif


    image.thumb.gif.3599ec4d87d6967edf990add0533ed9e.gif

    Just the 8-10 days to get through to get there....what on Earth could go wrong?  An awful lot....but here’s hoping

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Mean is another improvement with the energy from the scandy trough just that little bit further south by day 10...

    We are well in the game for a cold Christmas ....( with snow on the ground potentially,in parts of Scotland in particular)..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    Models still looking interesting for the Xmas period but until we get to next weekend think we should all be calm about if a cold snap or possible period develops.The good thing is the trends are there.As others have said a big thank you to Scott who last evening simplified certain technical aspects that I was able to grasp probably along with many others.Before anyone says anything this is not a criticism to any one as I notice a few posts have disappeared from very late last night which is a shame as when I read them I felt they were fair IMO.It is sad we live in a world now where different opinions can be misconstrued to be something else but that is the world we now live in.Sorry mods for being off topic but freedom of speech should NEVER be denied in our democratic country.

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    A good looking D10 mean chart from ECM if you want a cold, frosty and even snowy Christmas - very clear trend to Scandi low / Atlantic ridge = northerly

    Screenshot_20201214-075531.thumb.png.45687a2cffaa8248017f2a8f5c7828fc.png

    The ECM has of course got history in watering down Atlantic ridges so several days to go yet before confidence builds

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Good morning!

    I haven't read all pages since yesterday evening, so may I repeat this, but is there a chance for a SSW? A minor for sure...

     

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    D12 on the gefs and overall trending towards some sort of amplified Atlantic sector:

    d12> gens_panel_jds6.png London uppers> graphe3_1000_308.22491455078125_146.62860107421875___.thumb.gif.269b2130f36f2ee8e36323f59ac2458c.gif

    More ens showing interest than those not, but there is a fine line between cold and not so cold in how it all develops on the good ones! The d14 ens suggest that things may develop even further for a blocked setup but not strong cluster(s):

    gens_panel_iws0.png

    The trend remains so steady as she goes...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Well well well. The ECM has a polar low poised to drop on xmas Eve and the GFS has practically a channel low for Xmas day. What could possibly go wrong?😀

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Such a shame shout Steve...

    I for one really enjoy his enthusiasm when explaining charts in the run up to a potential cold chase ...

    Come on Steve, dear me, I write off Winter about 4x a day!!🤣

    And NW members can vouch for that !!!

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  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Well well well. The ECM has a polar low poised to drop on xmas Eve and the GFS has practically a channel low for Xmas day. What could possibly go wrong?😀

    The ECM does not show a polar low about to drop on Christmas Eve.

    I'm assuming you're referring to the low to the North West? That is actually a hinderance. 

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  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

    ECM and GFS 240  - going to be interesting watching this evolve into more reliable timeframes.  At least we are looking at a change in pattern, this coming week looks like a repeat of last week 🤢

    image.thumb.png.167eb33622adcb31557ebefc9e3c005d.pngECM at 240

    image.thumb.png.1215c8b39ebeacf997caf095c399d89a.pngGFS at 240

     

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  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The ECM does not show a polar low about to drop on Christmas Eve.

    I'm assuming you're referring to the low to the North West? That is actually a hinderance. 

    The path it takes will decide whether it's a hindrance or not. It's 850'are minus 5 to minus 10 and it's sat in a north to northwesterly air stream. 

    I say that's pretty polar.😀

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    NH view of det reveals an absence of Greenland low pressure...

    image.thumb.png.d0444f8d5c434797a9082714856a31c1.png

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Big scatter on the GEFS spaghetti, though the colder options are outweighing the milder ones. But look at that control! 

    922C0C33-61DD-4469-B188-0C2D4C0527AB.thumb.png.0339f361063ae7225e56bfe4298d79e5.png

     

    It’s how the low in the Atlantic interacts/develops. 
     

    We have the Azores high to the south and the developing ridge to the north, if the low fills and disrupts then it keeps the flow south and allows the northerly airmass to sink south. If the low intensifies and gears up it forces east and north pushing the colder air back north, leaving us caught in the Azores/Atlantic flow! 
     

    fine line! 
     

    GFS Control vs ECM Xmas eve.

    1309B7A9-B7E0-417B-A9CE-5409CB2C406D.thumb.png.ee65a48e6348b2a67429b9d690d2ac34.png9B5935AE-BB82-4EB1-966B-6557515C6314.thumb.png.9848498f2eea44fb79170afd79eefb31.png

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    For me, the most significant thing this season is this massive cold block to the east and the lack of cold air over Canada. If this block starts moving westwards, than, oh boy oh boy...

     

    spacer.pngspacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Still a guessing game on exactly how things will pan out after 144hrs,the high pressure 

    holds the key to every door.The ideal scenario is for the high to sit northwest of us 

    around Christmas Day with low pressure to the east,would be a perfect set up let’s hope.

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