Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[fromey]

Any idea on the met office run this evening??

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just need that low to shove east. Just sits there

It’s clear we need more significant blocking.. but the Arctic high continues to go strength to strength. Seeing yellows!! You see this in spring/summer not winter especially not in December when the Arctic is absorbing no solar radiation.

  

 

[swfc]

21 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Get those beer gardens open, boys and girls... winter's here!

     

Love a barbie tbh. You have to laugh don't ya. No prozac needed today anyway.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly thanks to @hurricane-anna for that level headed post.. In my opinion we need more female input on this thread.. Women are always correct seriously though we do.

And secondly we need to see more of the chart I'm posting... Much much more.. Come on gang let's begin the chase after Xmas... At least when we are all sober

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, fromey said:

Any idea on the met office run this evening??

Mild and wet.

[phil nw.]

19 minutes ago, fromey said:

Any idea on the met office run this evening??

Similar picture at day 5 as-- GFS low pressure parked nearby.

We can now see the demise of the eastern block so  it looks like the Atlantic weather will push further into W.Europe in the coming week.

It is a bit of an unusual setup.We still have those ht anomalies over the north and yet we still find ourselves facing a spell of wet and unsettled conditions from the west,with higher temps.than of late.

The only upside is the jet may well dig south at times and as mobility continues we could see some polar incursions from the north west as lows move across later on.

London temp/rainfall ens from the 00z run

 

So surface temps trending colder towards Christmas but still looking wet at times.Possible snow risk increasing further north,over hills etc,if this trend remains.

Edited December 11, 2020 by phil nw.

[Vikos]

Like all the years before, XMAS-BBQ outside in the garden with a T-Shirt and a cold beer...

[Geordiesnow]

Whilst of course the models are showing an milder and wet outlook, I dont think the charts are showing flooding to be a threat. There is certainly no storm Desmond type of charts in the forecast and any rainfall is not likely to be long lasting. There is a risk of a developing deep low in the forecast which needs watching but pretty bog standard weather if a little bit too mild. The real dissapointment is we got no real polar maritime air in the forecast due to the position of the jet being a SW'ly-NE'ly angle so even frost looks very limited. 

 

[danm]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Like all the years before, XMAS-BBQ outside in the garden with a T-Shirt and a cold beer...

There's nothing worse than a Spring like Xmas day. 

Still, patience is key. We rarely have white Christmases in this country and there's still most of the winter in front of us. 

[Vikos]

Just now, danm said:

There's nothing worse than a Spring like Xmas day. 

Still, patience is key. We rarely have white Christmases in this country and there's still most of the winter in front of us. 

Last year I've been in Florida for XMAS and NY and I can tell you, it's not that bad having a xmas-bbq at 28°C

[Penicuikblizzard]

33 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Anyone up for a Boxing Day barbie?

     

-12 across the North Sea in Norway just needing that trigger to pull west don’t rule anything out yet, it could all flip again before the 25th

[blizzard81]

Is anybody else having problems accessing the gfs ensembles on meteociel?

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Is anybody else having problems accessing the gfs ensembles on meteociel?

Yes mate, won't load

[blizzard81]

Just now, swfc said:

Yes mate, won't load

Cheers for confirming mate. Thought it might be my phone lol. 

[Eagle Eye]

Much like March 2018 charts today. 

[Tim Bland]

Here’s the ensembles on Wetter (not as easy to view but can make out) op was a milder option at end, could even be called an outlier. Some colder options still there, no beasts but a few cold enough for snow on high ground 

[swfc]

If you look at the ec profile at 120 hrs on the nhp profile it looks pretty good. PV away from Greenland ete, just get that low pressure to drop South east

[TSNWK]

Heights again where there were none around Canada / Greene.. been a theme around 168 for the 12z. Yet to see benefits of any.. but a tangible step forward..?

[Daniel*]

Not a whole lot different but looks more blocked E Canada/USA near to Greenland...
 

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Daniel*

[Eagle Eye]

Easternly ridge across the UK.

Deep low acroos the north could be a good warming for snow. 

 

[Johnp]

ECM 216 could be a cracker if the two lows don't merge. 

[pureasthedriven]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Similar picture at day 5 as-- GFS low pressure parked nearby.

We can now see the demise of the eastern block so  it looks like the Atlantic weather will push further into W.Europe in the coming week.

It is a bit of an unusual setup.We still have those ht anomalies over the north and yet we still find ourselves facing a spell of wet and unsettled conditions from the west,with higher temps.than of late.

The only upside is the jet may well dig south at times and as mobility continues we could see some polar incursions from the north west as lows move across later on.

London temp/rainfall ens from the 00z run

 

So surface temps trending colder towards Christmas but still looking wet at times.Possible snow risk increasing further north,over hills etc,if this trend remains.

Yep. Cool/cold rain in the reliable. 

[Eagle Eye]

Southerner is it then. 

[swfc]

Big improvement on ec, Atlantic profile similar to gfs 12z

[Daniel*]

Becomes more apparent at day 9.