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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Joking aside lol, great to have another new knowledgeable and enthusiastic member on here this year 👍

    I agree, it’s very enjoyable reading the posts from those that are far more knowledgeable than me on the current situation.👍

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    Sigh....given we have crossed swords before over the notion of bias, and I have put my position on it very clearly out there for others to see, I'm disappointed to read about it again. But seeing as y

    Hi the link doesnt exist any more plus the locale we would want to look at isnt on that small chart! Anyway evening All > Lots to be optimistic for tonight all detailed before the 18z Is

    Evening All - A very disappointing 24 hours where the very promising charts have not evolved into anything more than a fleeting prospect of deep cold > I held off all the while the UKMO contin

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    Well all I can say to that is you are doing a brilliant job so far mate. I think I speak for many on here when I say you have certainly made your mark so far this season. In a very good way I might add 👍

    Thanks mate that means a lot! Certainly helps me settle in kind comments like that. I intend to stay in for the long haul. Its increased my passion for weather using this board more often and being around like minded enthusiasts thats for sure 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Is this a little March 3rd 1995 before the main course??

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    A negative NAO December is looking increasingly likely rare feat the first since December 2010, yes not greatly so and no immediate pathway to deep cold but probably illustrates there’s something different going on, growing interest after mid month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Well all I can say to that is you are doing a brilliant job so far mate. I think I speak for many on here when I say you have certainly made your mark so far this season. In a very good way I might add 👍

    Unless the cold doesn’t arrive. Then we’ll lynch you 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    Unless the cold doesn’t arrive. Then we’ll lynch you 😉

    Hahahahaha!! Down with the Ingham!!

    Smite him!!

    There is always that chance its the weather but ive never felt as clear in my mind on the way things are going. We'd have all taken this at this point in December. Chances are there and I havnt felt this sure since of it since the end of January 2018 for the March spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Have to say it certainly seems like something exciting could be around the corner, would be great for it to fall around Christmas time especially with the way of the world atm. There’s some very knowledgeable folk on here, and have to say it’s a pleasure to be a member of this forum to chat and learn from like minded weather enthusiasts. 
    It’s all a learning curve especially when it’s flip flops all round with the models 🤓

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Hahahahaha!! Down with the Ingham!!

    Smite him!!

    There is always that chance its the weather but ive never felt as clear in my mind on the way things are going. We'd have all taken this at this point in December. Chances are there and I havnt felt this sure since of it since the end of January 2018 for the March spell.

    Well if the cold doesn’t arrive, the informative posts on here will have at least staved off the boredom of another disappointing winter.

    Even predictions that don’t come completely to fruition can teach one a lot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    The pub run is sober tonight?!

    I think I’ve seen it all...

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    Posted
  • Location: Hastings (Eastern Latvia now perhaps until Easter)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Hastings (Eastern Latvia now perhaps until Easter)
    Just now, Zak M said:

    The pub run is sober tonight?!

    I think I’ve seen it all...

    Had to have a meal with it's food so stomach lined and alcohol absorbed.

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    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
    3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    The pub run is sober tonight?!

    I think I’ve seen it all...

    Covid19 restrictions finally kicking in.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Keep it to model discussion please..

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Pub run T144, the red line is the invisible block as I understand things

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    Interesting 🤔 I had no idea I was the cause of this...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Crapper ensembles than 12z.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Crapper ensembles than 12z.

    I've seen worse.

    I wouldn't pay attention to them past the 13th though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Mapantz said:

    I've seen worse.

    I wouldn't pay attention to them past the 13th though.

    less pronounced height rises to NE, only looked at 3 or 4 individually i admit, you can't always be sure on clustering on a mean but you can usually tell whether its an improvement or not on the last run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
    6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    less pronounced height rises to NE, only looked at 3 or 4 individually i admit, you can't always be sure on clustering on a mean but you can usually tell whether its an improvement or not on the last run.

    Variations on an amplified theme. No profound cold but a long way from normal...

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Definitely not the worst ensembles ever regarding some chilly and High Pressure building options. Hopefully some more thrilling ensembles will turn up during the next few days for the cold weather fans. Some of the Northern Hemisphere charts seem to continue to show intrigue - that blue and purple monster (Vortex) struggling to rule the atmosphere. 

    If what some have said about the possibility of High Pressure building around us and to our North around Christmas comes true, then it may be a bit early still for the ensembles to pick up on these outcomes. No full guarantees the above will happen. But agree with others that it’s great having everyone sharing all their knowledge and opinions of various models and charts, no matter how accurate the predictions turn out to be. A pleasure to read these thoughts. What I think is nice as well is that posting charts and giving suggestions on what the weather will do can also be something that’s just for fun. 

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Pretty great for a day 10 GEFS mean very strong signal for a vortex disturbance. Warm Arctic... cold continents? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Stop beating around the block and get it sorted 😄

    Anyway, late to the party tonight(after's shift),it took me ages to read in here(I suffer from dry eye syndrome) so it takes me a while))

    some great posts again today/tonight,and go @chionomaniacfor some impressive input,not to mention @Catacol 

    And finally thanks to newcomer @Scott Ingham for your input too and don't be put off by your condition,you are doing a great job and i am glad to here that you studied Meteorology 👍

    the more knowledgeable people the better

    that's me done for tonight,same again tomorrow.

     

     

     

     

     

    Again thanks for the kind words mate. Here's to another intriguing week and month of model watching to come!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Hoping the Arctic High becomes the dominant feature, eventually.Would be nice if the UKMO was leading the way here. 

    They are rare beasts, but have been the factor behind many of the historic cold spells in the UK throughout the centuries. 

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