Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[chionomaniac]

This run shows how important the angle and strength of any split is

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Look at how that low pressure is just filling in situ. Its a shame more energy isn't going South but there's still time for that because as catacol says there's still room for more amplification to be added to the system 

Yes, and T192, and it’s also worth noting events further up the red line on the other side of the world;

Can’t see those 2 bits of the vortex coming together anytime soon!

[swfc]

28 minutes ago, MATT said:

I'm not seeing anything from tonight's EC46 that suggests major cold will begin appearing in the next few days. If anything going towards the latter part of the month suggests the EXETER update may be onto something with a chance of milder wetter conditions by this time.. Low pressure anchored over Iceland and increasing Heights over iberia... Know significant Heights over Greenland or Scandy... The ural block still in place, and perhaps a tad more displaced South.. Temps around avareage. 

Yes you'd suspect these guys would be picking up on anything in the outlook worth a mention and all the data at there disposal. Me I've zero idea

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, and T192, and it’s also worth noting events further up the red line on the other side of the world;

Can’t see those 2 bits of the vortex coming together anytime soon!

Agreed mate this split is a little too far east and angled 10 o clock to 4 o clock however. We need the spilt more 12 to 6 or 1 to 7

[Griff]

16 minutes ago, Catacol said:

That's a bit like saying Jurgen Klopp agrees with your interpretation of the Gegenpress......

This should be pinned, framed and printed on mugs and t-shirts for prosperity.

Had me smiling like Klopp too! 

Nice when everyone's being nice, would have thought it was directly proportional to good synoptics...

The only shame is that the 18z didn't get the message... 

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Griff

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, and T192, and it’s also worth noting events further up the red line on the other side of the world;

Can’t see those 2 bits of the vortex coming together anytime soon!

Mike, the split is more like this on this run. Hence, it will take longer to get any joy out of this.

we need a split as close as possible to greenland

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

This run shows how important the angle and strength of any split is

Needs to be more 1 o clock to 7 than 10am to 4pm. Its pushed the pattern too far east and a portion of the vortex closer to the west coast of Greenland 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Mike, the split is more like this on this run. Hence, it will take longer to get any joy out of this.

we need a split as close as possible to greenland

Yeah agreed!

[bluearmy]

The pub run has a slight change to the polar profile as the Asian vortex looks unlikely to push low heights across to cut off the arctic high on this run around day 10.  

[Catacol]

Deleted.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Catacol

[Scott Ingham]

Its important we get the pattern backed further West earlier in the run. The tropics could do us a favour with this if they aren't picking this up 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Agreed mate this split is a little too far east and angled 10 o clock to 4 o clock however. We need the spilt more 12 to 6 or 1 to 7

Aka 1947 with its 1 to 7 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Aka 1947 with its 1 to 7 

Yeah. Perfect angle of the split their! Daft way to describe it but an easy way for newcomers to visualize it dummed down like that 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Mike Poole]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Mike, the split is more like this on this run. Hence, it will take longer to get any joy out of this.

we need a split as close as possible to greenland

Thanks @chionomaniac, and to @Scott Ingham as well, this is for me, new things that are happening this winter, as I’m sure it is for many others, snow or no snow I think I and others are going to learn an awful lot from this upcoming 2 months.  Bring it on!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Thanks @chionomaniac, and to @Scott Ingham as well, this is for me, new things that are happening this winter, as I’m sure it is for many others, snow or no snow I think I and others are going to learn an awful lot from this upcoming 2 months.  Bring it on!

Your welcome m8 didn't mean to patronize if I have with the times but sometimes easier to explain as I have no idea what I'm doing uploading graphics with my dyslexia! Haha!

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah. Perfect angle of the split their! Daft way to describe it but an easy way for newcomers to visualize it dummed down like that 

You started it

[Cheshire Freeze]

Got a feeling it ultimately won't matter where the initial split aligns. All that will dictate is how fast the cold comes.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

You started it

No I know I meant me hahahaha 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Got a feeling it ultimately won't matter where the initial split aligns. All that will dictate is how fast the cold comes.

Yep, there is the all roads lead to Rome argument, and you may well be right if the vortex can’t get organised at all, but that’s getting ahead of ourselves.

[chionomaniac]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Thanks @chionomaniac, and to @Scott Ingham as well, this is for me, new things that are happening this winter, as I’m sure it is for many others, snow or no snow I think I and others are going to learn an awful lot from this upcoming 2 months.  Bring it on!

It’s good Mike to be able to demonstrate how important these factors are in being in the right place to deliver cold to our shores. The conditions are ripening nicely, but that doesn’t man that we will always bear the fruit, but at least we know that we are in position to have a great harvest. So, not a great run but no worries because the harvesting is still a good few weeks away and our crop is doing nicely. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not so sure about the wetter spell chance from Exeter now... The EC46 now showing a build of High pressure from the South, and some really strong Heights building into Spain and Portugal.... @Tamara Save us some space in ya suitcase, I'll come with you...

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

No I know I meant me hahahaha 

Joking aside lol, great to have another new knowledgeable and enthusiastic member on here this year

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It’s good Mike to be able to demonstrate how important these factors are in being in the right place to deliver cold to our shores. The conditions are ripening nicely, but that doesn’t man that we will always bear the fruit, but at least we know that we are in position to have a great harvest. So, not a great run but no worries because the harvesting is still a good few weeks away and our crop is doing nicely. 

Also shows nicely how having a full blown ssw doesn't always guarantee cold if the pieces dont fall in the right place 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Joking aside lol, great to have another new knowledgeable and enthusiastic member on here this year

Thanks mate appreciate it. Ive been into meteorology at differing levels for over 20 years but having dyslexia and having to spell check and go over everything a few times puts you off posting!

Edited December 7, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Thanks mate appreciate it. Ive been into meteorology at differing levels for over 20 years but having dyslexia and having to spell check and go over everything a few times puts you off posting!

Well all I can say to that is you are doing a brilliant job so far mate. I think I speak for many on here when I say you have certainly made your mark so far this season. In a very good way I might add